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a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will drive global professional wages toward $20K equilibrium
“If you've got, let's say, a lawyer who's making 200 K a year in the US or a doctor in the West, and then you've got somebody from the Philippines or India or anywhere in the world who's making currently 2000 dollars a year, maybe the converged wage with AI plu…”
Balaji Srinivasan Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 1:08:28 Balaji Srinivasan: How AI Will Change Politics, War, and Money
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: The FDA caused one million preventable COVID-19 deaths
“And you could have avoided like a million dead. That million dead is on the FDA's head, like, because challenge trials could have been done, you know?”
Balaji Srinivasan Nov 16, 2022 ▶ 1:28:04 The Network State with Balaji Srinivasan
MY FIRST MILLION Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: Crypto will replace Yale Law, Columbia Journalism, and Kennedy School
“Crypto is not just, you know, the next wall street. It's also the next Silicon Valley because decentralized social networks and so on are built there, but even less, obviously it's the next Yale law and Columbia school of journalism and Kennedy school of gover…”
Balaji Srinivasan May 5, 2021 ▶ 1:30:35 Balaji on How to Fix the Media, Cloud Communities & Crypto | MFM #178
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Centralized Bitcoin on Coinbase and MicroStrategy will likely be seized
“Like, will all the centralized Bitcoin on Coinbase's servers, Sailor servers, et cetera, get seized? I think it's quite likely. I think it eventually gets seized in some exigent circumstance.”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 1:01:40 Why Balaji Srinivasan Thinks the SaaS Apocalypse Is Overhyped | The a16z Show
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Balaji: Rate hikes will cause systemic failure across the US banking sector
“Powell is crashing the plane, and SVB and FRC and others were just positioned near the front of the plane. Okay. So like everybody's gonna die is my point.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 12:19 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US federal loyalists will switch allegiance to China during financial collapse
“And so one thing I don't think people are taking into account is that a lot of people who are you know, Currently very for the federal government. If it has serious financial difficulty, we'll simply fold into the new Chinese overlords.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 43:40 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Balaji: Gold Seizure-Style Executive Order Will Be Attempted in US
“What I do think is I think that there is probably enough strength among grays and reds to prevent a complete repeat of executive order. Six one Oh two. I think it's going to be attempted.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 54:11 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Western governments will lose battle against decentralized network elite
“And I think that Western governments will lose. It's going to be super nasty and super gnarly, but on balance, they will lose because their ideology is not one that attracts the very top talent.”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 1:13:40 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: Bitcoin Is on Track to Become the 'Government of Governments'
“Bitcoin, the reason I say Bitcoin specifically is it's, you know, it's on track. We will see if it can actually get there. Cause it's got various kinds of issues, you know, privacy and other kinds of things that, you know, but It's on track to be the governmen…”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 1:52:47 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Large language models will not lead to AGI
“No. Actually, the opposite.”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 0:30 Why Balaji Srinivasan Thinks the SaaS Apocalypse Is Overhyped | The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will make the global internet resemble China's
“I actually think AI makes the internet a lot more like the Chinese internet.”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 7:04 Why Balaji Srinivasan Thinks the SaaS Apocalypse Is Overhyped | The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: China will stop autonomous AI using cryptographic kill switches
“Way before it gets there, I'm pretty sure that kind of thing will be stopped from the Chinese because they will just have cryptographic keys that will just make all those things shut off, okay?”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 25:23 Why Balaji Srinivasan Thinks the SaaS Apocalypse Is Overhyped | The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Centralized US AI firms won't reach trillions due to backlash
“So I don't think that in that form they're going to get to trillions. In fact, I think the counterattack on them is going to be so dramatic that it might be that you just have decentralized AI.”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 52:03 Why Balaji Srinivasan Thinks the SaaS Apocalypse Is Overhyped | The a16z Show
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: US regulatory assault blocked tech IPOs and M&A for four years
“For four years, it was just a desert. A bunch of companies silently died. The state blocked IPOs. They're blocking M&As. It was just an all-out anti-tech assault.”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Steven Sinofsky & Balaji Srinivasan on the Future of M&A, AI & Tech
a16z Assertion Supported
Srinivasan: Google paid over $100 million into Windsurf's account for dividends
“Google put a hundred million plus in the bank account of WindSurf where the intent was to dividend it out.”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 49:34 Steven Sinofsky & Balaji Srinivasan on the Future of M&A, AI & Tech
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: Futurism versus primitivism will replace the left-right political axis
“I think it's going to become actually the future political axis between futurism and primitivism. That's going to be the new left, right after the whole thing finishes rotating.”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 1:04:51 Steven Sinofsky & Balaji Srinivasan on the Future of M&A, AI & Tech
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Balaji Srinivasan: The Atlantic published an article advocating for invading Brazil
“Like, a great example is The Atlantic published this crazy piece calling for invading Brazil because they saw a photo of the Brazilian fires, ok?”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:18:10 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Balaji Srinivasan: NYT won Pulitzer Prizes for false Russiagate coverage
“The New York Times collected all these polizers for this, for basically false information, right?”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:19:54 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: AI can automatically surface every historical contradiction in NYT archives
“AI can do that. AI can do that. AI can find every internal contradiction to NYT ever, ok? And so you could just have them, NYT versus NYT, like, you know, they're enslaving people, and then they're pretending they're, you know, like, there's just so many thing…”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:25:46 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Decentralized networks will replace the state as authority of truth
“So it gets a very fundamental thing where tech guys are sensing there's something here, but ultimately the network has to supplant the state as the form of truth.”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:28:43 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Uber VCs leaked information because Travis Kalanick resisted IPO
“At Uber, like the VCs there wanted money and Travis didn't want to sell or IPO. So that's why they did it in part.”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:32:35 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Voting with your feet will be the only remaining democracy
“So the problem is that you have Democrats, Republicans, and Communists that have all created basically one-party states, where the only democracy then is going to be the right to exit. To vote with your feet.”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:39:52 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Future democracy will replace two-party systems with a thousand-city model
“That's a future democracy, not a two-party system with the illusion of choice, but a thousand city system with the reality of choice. 97% for Elon, right? This is essentially a precursor to what's coming next, where you vote with your feet, your wallet, and yo…”
Balaji Srinivasan Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:41:10 Tech vs. Media: Balaji Srinivasan on the Battle Shaping Our Future
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: AI applications in markets and politics will fail
“And what I think AI is particularly bad at, that people are trying to make, trying to use it for, that they're going to fail on, in my view, is when they try to use it for markets or politics.”
Balaji Srinivasan Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 37:15 Balaji Srinivasan: How AI Will Change Politics, War, and Money
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Media companies unionizing against AI will be outcompeted
“There's a similar, much less publicized thing that's happening at many media corporations where they're unionizing to try to ward off AI competition. Like, they have union contracts that say the editors, owners cannot use AI, right? So they're making their org…”
Balaji Srinivasan Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 1:07:16 Balaji Srinivasan: How AI Will Change Politics, War, and Money
TBPN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: DeFi Asset Swaps Will Destroy National Fiat Monopolies
“Cash is universal barter. Cash can be traded for anything, but now anything can be traded for anything, which means there's less need for cash, right? And so all these countries will wake up one day and they'll find, wait a second, just like the newspapers, we…”
Balaji Srinivasan May 31, 2025 ▶ 31:37 Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fellows
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: The 2023 banking crisis will not return to normal like 2008
“Because ultimately, 2008 was, quote, just a recession, and I think things came back to normal in a sense afterwards. I don't think things are going to come back to normal after this one. I think this is the big one.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 1:45 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Supported
Balaji: Silicon Valley Bank collapsed because it bought U.S. Treasuries
“Neither of those things are what blew up the bank. What blew up the bank is that they bought treasuries.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 8:36 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Balaji predicts a 'digital lockdown' featuring capital controls and crypto bans
“So, so what I think is coming in a phrase is is digital lockdown. Okay. Digital lockdown encapsulates essentially obviously bans on short selling, attempted bans on crypto, capital controls, probably wage controls, price controls, anti hoarding laws. They may …”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 22:24 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji predicts US will divide into Bitcoin states and dollar states
“And I actually think this becomes a very important dividing line and political issue where it's essentially the Bitcoin states where you know, people are allowed to hold Bitcoin in private hands and the dollar states where they're not. Basically meaning you li…”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 30:25 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: US ideological separation portends event like India's partition
“Cognitive separation has happened. Social separation has happened. We're still physically proximal. And what that portends in my view is something similar to do you know what partition was in India?”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 35:39 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Balaji: 2023 bank runs were caused by Fed policies, not social media
“The bank runs started before anybody tweeted, right? And the reason that they happened is because the Fed fundamentally undermined these portfolios.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 38:43 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US will inflate away debt or suspend convertibility instead of defaulting
“Well, basically what'll happen in my view is they will they won't, they may not default on it long-term in the sense of pay cash, but they'll inflate it away to such a point. Or make it illiquid or suspend convertibility.”
Balaji Srinivasan May 11, 2023 ▶ 55:54 Ep 57: Balaji Srinivasan on the Severity of the Bank Crisis and the Future of Bitcoin · Joe Lonsdale
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: The internet frontier will give rise to new digital countries
“This internet frontier where we've migrated to will over time give rise to new countries just like the Americas did.”
Balaji Srinivasan Nov 16, 2022 ▶ 19:28 The Network State with Balaji Srinivasan
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: US government clash with Bitcoin will match the Crusades
“The US government and the US dollar versus Bitcoin is as big a clash as like, you know, I don't know, Christian Muslim was during the crusades or something like that.”
Balaji Srinivasan Nov 16, 2022 ▶ 30:32 The Network State with Balaji Srinivasan
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Balaji Srinivasan: Euthanasia is Canada's sixth leading cause of death
“In fact, it's like the sixth leading cause of death and candid, like you can kill yourself, but you can't take an experimental drug.”
Balaji Srinivasan Nov 16, 2022 ▶ 1:10:43 The Network State with Balaji Srinivasan
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: The FDA is holding back tens of trillions of dollars
“Once we can get a zone outside the FDA, once we can exit the FDA, people don't understand how bad the FDA is. Your entire life, it's like tens of trillions of dollars of values being held back by FDA. It's like incalculable how bad they are as an agency.”
Balaji Srinivasan Nov 16, 2022 ▶ 1:18:06 The Network State with Balaji Srinivasan
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: The US federal government will be the last reform mover
“Like the U S federal government will be the last mover on everything. Like everybody's over indexed on, we need to reform the U S government. No, you need to, Exit the US government.”
Balaji Srinivasan Nov 16, 2022 ▶ 1:25:22 The Network State with Balaji Srinivasan
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: Network states will drive a shift toward greater polystatism
“What we are going through and what we are going to see is much more polystatism and the network state is a way of not just using the existing administrative units like Florida and what have you, but setting up new ones.”
Balaji Srinivasan Nov 16, 2022 ▶ 2:36:16 The Network State with Balaji Srinivasan
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US is headed toward anarchy rather than totalitarian dictatorship
“For some time, I'd been increasingly concerned that instead of marching into a future of freedom, we were heading into a time of tyranny. I still think something like this may take place in China's sphere of influence. Arguably, it already has. But as the even…”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 5:35 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: Most Core Math and Physics Breakthroughs Predate the NSF
“The vast majority Of, you know, results in mathematics and physics and so on that we rely on happened before NSF. Okay. Let's say like they predate the modern scientific establishment that Vannevar Bush set up”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 43:58 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: Tech labs will raise more funding via crypto than grants
“And any lab that is like doing reasonably interesting technology work. Absolutely. Will probably be able to get more funding online via cryptocurrency and NFTs than they will within the academic grants process.”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 47:02 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Governments will fail to ban crypto as elites profit
“Like, they're not going to be able to ban it now. It's going to be harder to ban it. If enough members of the elite have sort of defected and are making money from this, only the sort of retro authoritarian chunk, which is Only about 30% of the population. It'…”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 1:15:03 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: Web3 will be Waterloo for wokeness
“I think web three will be Waterloo for wokeness.”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 1:36:59 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: Geopolitics by 2040 may center on China vs. international Indians
“I think by 2040, there's a chance, I'm not saying a hundred percent, but I think that if the last century ended up at least the second half was USA versus USSR, right? I think this century may end up as being China versus Indians, not India. I think that's whe…”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 2:20:19 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: US will collapse as an empire like the Soviet Union did
“I think the transition from just like the USSR became Russia, I think the USA after whatever collapse becomes America. That say it's like American culture. It's baseball, it's hot dogs, but it's not global empire, right?”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 2:26:33 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Balaji: China has won every round of US war games
“The US military has a perfect record in its war games with China. China's won every round.”
Balaji Srinivasan Sep 25, 2021 ▶ 46:29 Balaji Srinivasan: role of decentralization, China/US breakdown & more
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US government control of Facebook will lead to backdoor surveillance
“But the US government gaining more control over Facebook is not a solution to Facebook's real problems. It's just going to mean backdoor surveillance of everything.”
Balaji Srinivasan Sep 25, 2021 ▶ 1:04:08 Balaji Srinivasan: role of decentralization, China/US breakdown & more
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