The Ledger, every show

“Like, I think we've seen, internally in meta cases where if you can develop the right agentic loop and you have the right eval or the right metric for the agents to optimize, you can have a swarm of agents accomplish more than, like, a team of a hundred engine…”

“My biggest belief here is that the path to AGI is is one that looks a lot more like curing cancer than developing a vaccine. And what I mean by that is I think that the path to build AGI is going to be in, in, you know, you're going to have to solve a bunch of…”

“My understanding there's no positive transfer from learning in one modality to other modalities. So like training off of a bunch of video doesn't really help you that much with your text problems and vice versa.”

“I don't think there's strong scientific evidence of that yet. Maybe there will be eventually.”

“My hope certainly is that while AIs Application into military is something that is, is very concerning and potentially extremely powerful. It is the sort of same overall effect, which is to ultimately deter more conflict than create it.”

“Lack of pricing power, let's say, on the pure model layer certainly indicates that renting models out on their own may or may not be the best long-term business. I think it's likely to be a relatively mediocre long-term business.”

“Yeah, so MEI, we basically rolled out this idea of merit, excellence, and intelligence and the basic idea is in every role we're gonna hire the best possible person regardless of their demographics and we're not going to do any sort of you know quota-based opt…”

“The areas where humans will always have a meaningful sort of reasoning or intelligence advantage relative to models is long form thought long duration thought, thinking over long time horizons.”

“My biggest belief here is that the path to AGI is is one that looks a lot more like curing cancer than developing a vaccine. And what I mean by that is I think that the path to build AGI is going to be in, in, you know, you're going to have to solve a bunch of…”

“I think the main thing, fundamentally, is I think there's very limited generality that we get from these models and even for multimodality, for example my understanding there's no positive transfer from learning in one modality to other modalities. So like tra…”

“I mean, I really think, I think we're at this, like, amazing moment in the world where the bottleneck is not the progress of the AI models. The bottleneck is diffusing that through the rest of the world and helping the world adapt to this amazing technology th…”

“And now I actually think with the power of agents and AI broadly speaking, it's much closer to Goliath versus Goliath. Like, I think, but maybe the startup is like a mecha Goliath that is like vastly enhanced by the power of agents and AI, and you know, the la…”

“We believe that everybody in the world, you know, all the billions of people in the world are going to have a super intelligence that is adapted and tailored to them, that is, enables them to accomplish their goals, knows their context, and ultimately is an ex…”

“There's two hundred million businesses that are on Metis platforms today. We think that number should go to billions with this explosion of creativity and using AI tools”

“Lama four wasn't on the trajectory that was needed for Meta. And so I got in there and we kind of did a zero based build of how do you know, build an entire frontier lab you know, in some ways kind of from scratch, obviously using a lot of what we had and move…”

“I truly believe these models are already just incredibly powerful. Like, they should be so powerful to fuel, you know many, many points of expansion of GDP growth, and I think it's, like, up to smart people with vision and ambition to make all that happen.”

“And so I think a decade looking back, it'll, it'll be obvious that intelligence became abundant and that agency became abundant.”

“Like all of a sudden the scarce resource isn't gonna be Intelligence or agency. I really think it's going to be vision and ambition.”

“If you believe that there's some potential of some kind of conflict over Taiwan or other, some kind of other, like, hot conflict between the US and China then we really, the United States needs to ensure that we have the best possible AI technology to ensure t…”

“If we were to rack and stack versus China, we're ahead on algorithms. We're ahead on compute computational power, thankfully due to a lot of the export controls that the commerce department has put in place. And then on data, it's a little bit of a jump ball.”

“So, my expectation is that they will actually deploy AI to their military faster than the U.S., even though the U.S. Is ahead on the core technology.”

“OpenAI released O-one and released the O-one preview a number of months ago... Yeah, this is OpenAI's advanced reasoning model, which is great at sort of scientific reasoning and mathematical reasoning and reasoning and code, et cetera. And the very first repl…”

“There is a very real hamper in a lot of their progress too, which is the chip export controls. And this has been an incredible effort, I think, from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the, you know, the Biden administration in general to sort of hamper the ab…”

“20, 25 will be the year where we start to see several militaries around the world start utilizing AI agents in active warfighting environments to great effect.”

“And, you know, I think this is an area of active experimentation for a lot of militaries, but I think if you start to see that happen, then you're gonna, you will have more autonomous drones that are able to be more and more lethal, more and more effective. An…”

“Yeah, I do think that, yeah, I think that 20, 20 25 is really going to be the year where we start to see some kind of very basic primordial AI agents really start working in the consumer realm and creating sort of real consumer adoption. You know, another way …”

“We will have to sort of fundamentally reformat how the internet works to be able to support it. And I think that like the you know, we're going to need in some senses, like there will be like two webs. There will be the web that that, that, that humans use whe…”

“One of the things that we've seen over the past few past year in particular is that synthetic data has not worked as well as I think everybody had hoped. You know, pure synthetic data, just using data generated from the models to try to train future models, th…”

“Eventually It'll be able to start making its own hypotheses, running those tests on its own, and sort of ultimately making its own sort of discoveries or realizations or sort of conduct its own research.”

“I honestly think right now at where we are in AI development today We are more bottlenecked by data than we are compute.”

“I think we're entering a phase where the research is going to start mattering a lot more. Like, I think there will be a lot more divergence between a lot of the labs in terms of what research directions they choose to explore and which ones ultimately have bre…”

“Agents has been the buzzword for the past two years and basically no agent really works. Well, you know, it turns out there's just no agent data on the internet.”

“Right now, if you look at all the frontier models, they suck at composing tools. So if they have to use one tool and then another tool, let's say they have to look something up and then write a little Python script and then chart something, you know, if they u…”

“If they really nail this AI thing, they could generate another trillion dollars of market cap, probably very easily. Like, you know, if they really are ahead of the competition and they productize in a good way, like trillion dollars of market cap, kind of no …”

“If meta continues open sourcing, that puts a pretty strong cap as to the value that you can get from the model layer.”

“You have to believe that, that an open AI or an anthropic can build great applications businesses to for them to be longterm independent and sustainable.”

“Much, much fewer of the POCs have made it to production than I think than I think the industry overall expected, and I think a lot of enterprises are looking at it now, and, you know, the doomsday that they thought might have happened hasn't really happened.”

“I think this almost always results in ruin. I think that this isn't to say that you can't hire executives from the outside, but I think what you need to do when you hire executives from the outside is you really like, you like, they really get steeped in how t…”

“The reason that you are a good founder CEO is because you make very good decisions over and over and over again over an extended period of time. And to pull yourself out of those decision making loops is, you know, would be kind of crazy.”

“It's not, like, imminent. It's not, like, immediately on the horizon. So, you know, on the order of, you know, four plus years but you can see the glimmers, and, you know, depending on the algorithmic innovation cycles that we talked about before, You know, co…”

“A lot of films now have, you know, tens of millions, hundreds of millions of dollar visual effects budgets. It's true. They won't have to spend that much on visual effects going forward. It'll be able to be done Much more automatically using these models”

“This does not in itself result in, in labor displacement because most of these jobs that we're talking about are you know, there's a shortage of them in the economy. Most of the, most of these high end high end fields, you know, we need more doctors. We need m…”

“The leading AI labs, you know, they're incentivized very much so to build Incredible new capabilities. But there's a lot of very important technical work and technical research that's been done in areas that are that are not building, you know, cooler capabili…”

“Most of the benchmarks that we as a community look at... Academic benchmarks that are what the industry used to measure the performance of these algorithms are fraught with issues. Many of the models are overfit on these benchmarks. They're sort of in the trai…”

“The key to the scaling of these large language models and the, you know, these language models in general is the ability to scale data. And I think that one of the fundamental bottlenecks to, you know, what's, what's in the way of us getting from GPT-IV to GPT…”

“And we've sort of, as a community, we have, we've had easy data, which is all the data on the internet and we've kind of exhausted all the easy data, and now it's about, you know, forward data production that has high supervisory signal that is basically very …”

“The question is, is a human plus a model together going to be able to produce better output than a model alone? And I think that'll be the case for A very, very, very long time. That, that humans are still, you know, human intelligence is complementary to mach…”

“The academic benchmarks that are what the industry used to measure the performance of these algorithms are fraught with issues. Many of the models are overfit on these benchmarks. They're sort of in the training data sets of these models.”