The Ledger, every show

“The budget deficit, which was running about 6.7% of GDP under the Biden administration, highest, highest that we'd ever had when we weren't at war or in a recession”

“With AI that we can go back to the paradigm When I was younger, in the nineties, Alan Greenspan was able to run the economy very hot in the nineties, and because, you know, it was the IT boom, and we had this very powerful non-inflationary growth, and I think …”

“We estimate that that is approximately one percent of GDP a year. So, three hundred billion dollars. That's being spent on AI.”

“I think we could have this massive construction boom And then the factories get populated, and part of President Trump's one big beautiful bill, the most powerful part of that is the hundred percent immediate expensing of equipment, and we also did it for fact…”

“TSMC wants to build a gigantic fab system in Arizona, and I think it might be able to, Produce up to seven percent of the chips that the United States needs, and they're dealing with local building inspectors.”

“CPI went up about 22 during the period, but the Everyman Index was up over 30, 35%, because the bottom 25%, the bottom 50% of wage earners have a different basket than we do, and it inflated much faster.”

“After World War II, I think 90% of American families The children made more than the parents. Now, now I think it's fifty-fifty.”

“Every three hundred billion we cut is about a percent of GDP”

“On regulation, I think that they have They have been much too harsh on especially the smaller, smaller banks, medium banks.”

“We, we've just designated the Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.”

“Previous to my getting here treasury had disrupted the ecosystem so much that the Iranians used to hand them cash. Now they're just handing them here, take, take this oil tanker and try to sell it.”

“There's been no technological change in house building in 50 years, maybe 60.”

“So we're actually we should probably be announcing it in about 10 days. We're going to have an affordability czar. But it's going to be someone with a lot of experience in supply chains figuring out what are a lot of the quick fixes we can do.”

“My contribution was just an observation that the British housing market, that mortgages there, floated with the base rate, which is their overnight rate. And if the Bank of England raised rates on Wednesday, mortgages went up on Friday. If they were trying to …”

“Because of the exchange rate mechanism, the Bank of England or the British government had to buy an unlimited number of pounds to keep the pound in a quarter. So it was an asymmetric bet. We could push them up against the wall And the most they could push us b…”

“There was a very good study from the Common Fund that said one of the most successful strategies for allocators that when you believe in the manager, and I always tried to do this when I was at Soros or any investment committee that I'm on, When a manager has …”

“Then I think we are in a long-term bull market in gold. I think we're seeing reserve accumulation by central banks. I follow it closely. It's my biggest position.”

“I think maybe subconsciously one of the reasons I was attracted to money management, the numbers are the numbers. It's not a sales job. You don't live next to clients in Greenwich, and they're going to give you commissions because you're at the country club to…”

“The Chinese business model It's based on volume, it's based on employment, it's based on a five-year plan, and I think everyone neglected the idea that despite the tar, the tariffs, the Chinese were going to keep producing, that it's one of these, they may los…”

“I think cumulative CPI during the Biden administration was 21, 22%.”

“June was the first positive June for the Treasury since 2015. We actually had a surplus.”

“And in my perfect world, which never happens, we would go through this big capex boom, and then sometime in 26, the capex boom would hand off to a productivity boom.”

“Stan Druckenmiller, who's incredible. I think he's on, he's more than 40 years now, never a down year.”

“The key is to believe it could happen and then manage the risks.”

“The number of degrees awarded, Harvard, Yale, Princeton, probably hasn't changed very much since the 19 fifties.”

“We are re-examining All the bank regulations”

“Nuclear is going to be a big part of it, but it's not going to happen tomorrow.”

“Some of the building codes go all the way back to the Chicago Fire.”

“The state of Connecticut has put in a, I guess it's a law, that every municipality has to allocate 10% of vacant land to multifamily”

“We had a very distinguished mortgage manager come into the office. I think he'd actually written the Wiley book on mortgages and tell us what a great buy mortgages were halfway through the crisis, and I think his fund went down a hundred percent.”

“That was really my first go with seeing how bad policy creates good investment opportunities.”

“I think the greatest investment he ever made was finding Stan, because in He turned over the portfolio, but was still kind of actively involved from the sidelines. Then the following year when the Berlin Wall came down, he was able to spend more of his time on…”

“He kept a trading journal in a year when he was up over a 140%, and these currency, the realignments, the plaza cord, the lube cord happened. The things move six percent in a night, and He would add a 300% position because things really used to trend a lot mor…”

“A very good manager is someone you're proud to be invested with. They have good returns and you never have to worry about the phone call that things have gone pear-shaped. So that's a very good manager for an outside manager. A great manager would be someone w…”

“Long-term capital had blown up in 1998, And that wasn't really macro, it was more RV gone amok.”

“I think five days in, the biggest trade I'd ever done was John Corzine's firm got liquidated out of their Italian bond position, and it was a three and a half billion dollar trade. I still had the index card that I worked it out on. JP Morgan called us, and I …”

“The liquid markets game are cards and backgammon. It is luck and how are you going to manage the hand you're dealt?”

“The policy decision doesn't have to work. But it can cause a lot of price gyration.”

“When I look back, almost every time that I've taken it down, it's been the right thing to do, because there's always a counter trend.”

“One of my risk management techniques have been, you can be one thing, but not many. You can't be concentrated, illiquid, and leveraged. I prefer to be liquid and then to use leverage.”

“A lot of macro tends to be more Babe Ruth than Ted Williams, and the investors grow impatient, they pull out, you have a big year, big two years, the money comes back in, rents and repeat.”

“Japan. I believe that this could be a secular bull market. One of the few in the world.”

“Right now, about 38% of Americans Do not own equities, either directly or through some kind of a four or one K or something.”

“And then the asymmetric risk reward was, we made about twenty-something percent in a day.”

“This isn't well publicized. I think we made another 20% During the rest of the year.”

“The small banks and community banks, there's 70% of ag loans. They're 40% of small business loans”

“That I would say, 40, 50% of my day Treasury does a lot of national security work.”

“All these CEOs and getting all this great exposure, and also getting great exposure, people like Leon Cooperman, Byron Wayne, Ray Dalio used to come in and sell us this newsletter.”