Everything Scott Nolan said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Nolan: Fuel can exceed half the operating cost for small advanced reactors
“And so you go from a situation where the reactor is over 90% of total cost of energy produced to where, and fuel is obviously single digit percentages with low enriched uranium and gigawatt scale reactors and those simple metal fuel pellets to now where the fu…”
Nolan: Advanced nuclear reactor deployments will ramp significantly starting in 2030
“That, I think those, that timing is coming, you know, 20, 28 through 20 30. They're gonna first really start doing the, you know, single digit deployments, and then I think 2030 is where it really ramps.”
Nolan: Allied nuclear fleets will rely on Russia and China without US
“If the U.S. Does not provide enrichment To these countries, they will have to get it somewhere else as they build up their nuclear fleet, or they turn back on their nuclear fleet, and that'll be Russia, China.”
Nolan: Steep Venture Up-Rounds Are Often Underpriced Due to Anchoring
“If you've got a company that was like growing steadily, but then there's a big up round, it's probably the case that that up round is not even enough up. That if it's like a two X up round, maybe it should be a four X up.”
Nolan: Advanced Nuclear Startups Cite Russian Fuel as Primary Bottleneck
“And then all of them said the exact same thing. We want, you know, we're going to make nuclear affordable. We're going to make it scalable. We're going to take this from huge construction projects to factory built. And yet the one thing that's the hardest is n…”
Nolan: Co-locating Engineering and Initial Manufacturing Is Mandatory
“I think you need to, at a minimum, put your first of a kind manufacturing co-located with engineering and then better yet small scale manufacturing, mid scale manufacturing, maybe a large scale. You can push it somewhere else and go to a lower cost center as o…”
Nolan: China's Energy Production Will Triple the US's This Year
“China was growing a long time, like. We were equal neck and neck. I think this year they now will be triple us on total energy production.”
Nolan: Data Centers Could Consume the Entire US Electrical Grid by 2030
“And you look at some of these curves and it looks like data centers can consume if they were allowed to the entire grid by 20, 30 at this growth rate.”
Nolan: SMRs will find their niche powering data centers behind the meter
“And so if gigawatt scale is for the grid and megawatt scale is for remote communities or, you know, government installations, then the middle scale, I think is going to find its niche behind the meter with data centers over the next five to 10 years.”
Nolan: Building In-House Construction Teams Beats Hiring General Contractors
“Don't hire a GC and outsource everything. You lose total control. The schedule could be, it's not in your hands anymore. You need to build your own in-house engineer, procure, construct, EPC firm as a team to go run your construction projects because it's one …”
Nolan: Advanced reactors will surprise on deployment speed for AI demand
“We think that they're going to surprise everyone in their deployment speed and scale up, and, you know, just looking at the landscape of energy demand in the U.S. We haven't grown the grid for decades and yet now we have this huge surge of demand for data cent…”
Nolan: General Matter will displace adversarial nuclear imports by 2030
“Building enough capacity there to satisfy HALU through the next decade, and then enough LEU capacity to displace adversarial imports into the US. And so that's the scale of it. That's where we're doing it. Timeline is, you know, Before end of decade.”
Nolan: AI power demand by 2030 projected to match entire current US grid
“And I, you know, you look at some of these projections of AI power consumption over the next five years, and by 2030, it's predicted to basically consume all the, equivalent to all the power that's on the US grid today.”
Nolan: SpaceX can be cash-flow positive whenever it wants to be
“I think now the company, you know, has money and can be cashflow positive whenever they want to be.”
Nolan: Uranium enrichment is the only nuclear step the US lacks domestically
“The reason we're doing enrichment is because that's the one step the US doesn't do at any scale.”
Nolan: Factory-built nuclear energy should drop below 3 cents per kilowatt-hour
“I think three cents shouldn't even be the limit. Like that was three cents building huge gigawatt scale mega construction projects, not factory production. And so I think we should physically be able to get less than three cents if we were doing it before.”
Nolan: Incumbent Aerospace Stagnated for Decades on Subsidized Cost-Plus Contracts
“So that was an industry that had stagnated for decades. Nobody, no incumbent was doing anything interesting. They were all just writing government cost plus contracts. The U S assumed that space launch was a nation state capability. That would never be a comme…”
Nolan: Investing in Startup Trends Destroys Returns
“And so if there's a trend inherently, you have many companies going after the same trend, you're going to have new entrance. It's become a thing. It's not about one company. It's about the theme. And if there's a theme, that's not about one company, then it's …”
Nolan: Stagnated, cost-plus oligopoly industries are prime for venture disruption
“I think the thing that's most linked to stagnation is probably being a cost plus industry where there's very little incentive for progress, not much incentive to bring the cost structure down. And therefore you end up with this, like this fixed market size tha…”
Nolan: VCs Should Concentrate Capital Rather Than Indexing
“And in fact, you should just concentrate into the fewest number of companies possible and don't dilute your average returns by indexing.”
Nolan: Seeking "value deals" in venture capital is a flawed strategy
“The low competition thing typically would be associated with lower valuations, but I think that's trying to find value deals in venture is dumb idea. It's not the right plan.”
Nolan: Subcontracting Creates Calcified Architecture With Rigid Interfaces
“Every one of those interfaces that crosses another company is typically a fixed interface that's not going to move very quickly. And so you have to treat it as fixed. And so everyone's designing their individual piece against preconceived interface requirement…”
Nolan: Nuclear Power Poses Far Lower Statistical Risk Than Other Baseload Sources
“And there have been high profile accidents with nuclear. You think of Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Fukushima. But the actual risk associated with nuclear, despite those high profile incidents is still far, far lower than any other form of baseload energy.”
Nolan: Nuclear Power Should on First Principles Be Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels
“And so on, on first principles, nuclear should be an extremely affordable thing, potentially much more affordable than fossil fuels.”