Philip Tetlock
Professor, University of Pennsylvania. On 1 show, 1 appearance. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
academicauthorscientistfounder@PTetlock ↗forecastingresearch.org ↗Wikipedia ↗
Philip Tetlock is an academic recognized for research assessing judgment, cognitive biases, and expert prediction in political events. He is the author of Expert Political Judgment and co-author of the best-selling book Superforecasting.
1shows
1appearances
18statements
4resolved
4supported
0contradicted
100%fully supported
2said about them ↓ Everything Philip Tetlock said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Tetlock: 50 minutes of debiasing training improves forecasting accuracy by 10%
“We got about, for average forecasters who are randomly assigned to an experimental condition in which they get Kahneman style debiasing exercises the improvement is in the vicinity of 10%. And that's a big effect when you consider that, you know, we're talking…”
Tetlock: Making explicit probabilistic judgments improves forecasting accuracy
“And I think one of the major takeaways from the forecasting tournaments we've been running is that when people make explicit judgments and they're fully self-conscious about what they're doing, they can learn to do it better.”
Tetlock: Geopolitical forecasting relies on 70% skill and 30% luck
“Well, what we find in the ARPA tournament is, is that there certainly is an element of chance in predicting geopolitical and geoeconomic outcomes but the skill luck ratio seems to be about 70 30.”
Tetlock: Superforecasters uniquely believe probability estimation is a cultivatable skill
“They tend to score higher on measures of fluid intelligence. They tend to score higher on measures of active open-mindedness. But if I had to identify one factor that I think best distinguishes super forecasters from other forecasters who are equally intellige…”
Tetlock: Executives resist forecasting tournaments to protect their high-status judgment
“Even though I think we have shown that forecasting tournaments can appreciably improve probability estimates, there are a lot of reasons why organizations don't adopt them. One is the people at the top of the status hierarchy. They're not very enthusiastic. Bo…”
Tetlock: Corporate forecasting compromises accuracy with vague verbiage to avoid embarrassment
“Well, I think it's something you want to consider seriously that when people make forecasts inside organizations, most organizations today, accuracy is only one of the goals that they're pursuing. They're also interested in making forecasts that are going to b…”
Tetlock: Algorithmically extremizing independent forecasts produces more accurate predictions
“Each of you has very different reasons for believing .7. This leaves me to suppose that the answer is probably more extreme than .7, because if each of you knew the reasons the others had, you would probably become more extreme. And that's exactly what the bes…”
Tetlock: Belief updating works without strong priors, but fails with ideological convictions
“I think we can make people better belief updaters on problems where they don't have very strong ideological priors or preconceptions. But when people have really strong emotions and ideological convictions about presidential candidates or economic policy or wh…”
Tetlock: Effective forecasters anchor on statistical base rates before adjusting
“Start with the outside and work inside. That, that, that's a, that's, it's one of our mantras.”
Tetlock: Vague terms like 'could' allow pundits to evade accountability
“When you say something could or might happen, that could mean anything from .1 to low .9 in probability terms. And, you know, if it happens, I can say, well, I told you it could. And if it doesn't happen, I can say look, I merely said it could.”
Tetlock: Prediction markets have proven well-calibrated across hundreds of forecasts
“Prediction markets have generated hundreds of forecasts over many years, and they've proven to be pretty darn well calibrated, which is another way of saying when they say 75% probability of something happening, things happen about 75% of the time. And they do…”
Tetlock: Predicting 10-year stock market direction is easier than tomorrow's
“It's very hard to say whether the stock market's going to up or, going to go up or down tomorrow. So that's a short range question. In some ways, it's easier to predict where the stock market's going to be up or down 10 years from now relative to now that it i…”
Tetlock: Superforecasters actively second-guess their successes rather than just taking credit
“And supers do that too. But they also second guess their successes. They say, well, were we lucky just where we really nailed this question, but were we lucky? Could it have gone otherwise? Were we almost wrong? That's an unusual question for people to ask the…”
Tetlock: Good Judgment Project won IARPA's 2011–2015 forecasting tournaments
“The tournaments ran from 2011 to 2015. They ended in June of this year. And the Good Judgment Project I am proud to say, was the winner of those forecasting tournaments.”
Tetlock: Superforecasters break intractable problems into exposed subcomponent estimates
“And that's what super forecasters are pretty good at doing. Breaking down seemingly attractable problems into semi-attractable components and then just pushing. They're not afraid of looking stupid and making estimates that observers can see and look at and sa…”
Tetlock: Crowd average forecasts beat most individual forecasters
“The average of a group of forecasters, the average forecast from those forecasters is going to be more accurate than most of the individuals from whom the average was derived.”
Tetlock: Weighted averages outperform unweighted crowd forecasts
“Weighted averages beat the average.”
Tetlock: Modeling randomness is a good way to fail as a forecaster
“If you want to be a good forecaster, you don't spend very much time working on roulette wheel type problems. I mean, if, I mean, if you go to, if you visit casinos, you'll find lots of people who think they can detect patterns in roulette wheel spins. And they…”
The other half of the tape: Philip Tetlock's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 2 times in 2 episodes across the shows. every mention, with the transcript →
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2022 1 mention in 1 episode
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One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Philip's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNOWLEDGE PROJECTLEDGER | Professor, University of Pennsylvania | 1 | 18 | 100% 4/4 | full record on the Knowledge Project → |