Everything Graham Weaver said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Graham Weaver: AI app startups with $500M valuations will go to zero
“And they'll have two million of revenue and a five hundred million dollar valuation, and they're gonna go to zero. Like, they're gonna be worth absolutely zero.”
High-attribute young talent placed in senior roles quickly eclipses experienced executives
“I think to have a returns that are different, you have to have a belief that's different at the core. And our belief is that we can put a low experience, but high attribute person who's very young into an incredibly high senior leadership role. And in a short …”
Graham Weaver: PE playbooks fail unless firms install their own operators
“The reason you can make that playbook consistent is because you're putting your own people in to run it. This took me 10 years to figure out, but we would back founders and then say, Hey, we have all these great ideas and the founders would just smile and writ…”
Weaver: Proprietary data and deep interfaces are the only AI app moats
“I think if you can build proprietary data sets, which is harder than it sounds or you can build really deep interfaces with your customers, which is also harder than it sounds. Those are moats you can build, but really, I think sometimes what you're really, yo…”
Weaver: AI technology across many industries will become commoditized, not a differentiator
“I think the technology in many, many industries is going to be commoditized... I think ultimately, I think most people are gonna have access to the same technology. So it'll be a tool and it'll help everybody, but it's not gonna be the thing, you know, it's no…”
Weaver: VC-backed AI rollups in property management lack technological advantage
“I know there's been a bunch of AI native rollups launched by venture firms in property management. What tech, like what's their real advantage? Like, are they gonna have technology that's better than anyone else? I would say the answer is no.”
Graham Weaver: Building businesses yields 100x returns versus 2x from cost-cutting
“Building things is a lot more durable than ripping things apart. Cause you can make like one and a half times your money, or maybe, maybe even two times your money ripping stuff If you're lucky, if you time the exit just right. But if you actually build someth…”
Alpine's best deals featured inexperienced, coachable talent over industry veterans
“When we were in the recession and we had all this time to kind of look back at our track record, the best deals that we did were always ones where we put in either us or someone just like us to go run this business who knew nothing about the industry, but had …”
Alpine Investors has replaced platform management 100% of the time recently
“Historically we've last, I don't know, four funds, we've replaced the management a hundred percent of time”
Private equity's focus on raising larger funds incentivizes bad behavior
“If you watch what firms do, maybe not what they say, but what they actually do, their objective statement is go raise the next fund, go raise a bigger fund. And I think that that makes sense, right? That's how they stay in business, but I think it can lead to …”
Weaver: Alpha comes from world-class management, not industry perfection
“So the thing that we probably believe to be true that not that many people agree with us on is that the management team is really where we think all the alpha comes from. You can't get the industry wrong. Cause if you hire the best management team in the world…”
Alpine generated 95% of returns by scaling bright spots, not fixing problems
“You actually make all your money by focusing on the bright spots and scaling the things that are going right. We've made 95% of our money by focusing on the things that are going well and scaling those until those crowd out the rest of the activities.”
PE buyers get a discount acquiring companies without incumbent management
“In the public markets, Ted, you pay a premium to put your own management teams in. In the private market, you get a discount.”
Traditional executive search reshuffles rather than expands the diversity candidate pool
“They go look at people that have run healthcare software companies for 20 years, and so the DE&I battle was won or lost 20 years ago. Now, you could tell them, okay, we want that to be a minority or a woman, but they're not increasing the pool, they're just mo…”
Graham Weaver: Alpine Investors' last four funds achieved or track toward 5x MOIC
“About 15 years ago, we set an objective to become the number one performing private equity fund in the world as measured by net MOIC, you know, the return on capital and our last since we set that goal, the four funds we invested after that have all done five …”
Weaver: Apex Scaled to $3B Revenue and $500M Earnings in Six Years
“Three billion of revenue, five hundred million of earnings. And we, I think importantly that, that happened without us putting in any additional money.”
Graham Weaver: Working a job to fund a future startup never works
“The biggest mistake people make is the denominator. And they, so they go like, here's a perfect example. I really want to start a business. I'm going to go take this other job first, and then I'm going to make some money and then I'm going to, and then I'm goi…”
Weaver: Financial freedom requires only 9 to 12 months of savings
“Having three to six months of savings is level one, which is like the peace of mind, because then, you know, like I said, you have some unexpected expense and you're fine. You don't lose sleep over that. You know, you don't have to decide if you're going to pa…”
Alpine Investors' explicit target is a 5x MOIC on every fund
“We have three North stars at Alpine. One is to be the number one performing private equity fund in the world as measured by MOIC. Our specific goal is five X on every fund.”
Alpine Investors targets retiring founders to install new CEOs and systems
“The winnable game that we're engaged in, and we learned this over the first, you know, 10 years of Alpine when we were really hands on with these businesses is, We're going and finding a twenty million dollar revenue plumbing company in Ball, Louisiana that wh…”
Graham Weaver: Executive placement is harder than financial modeling in roll-ups
“With the playbook that you have, you can blend that down to five times EBITDA. You can borrow at five and a half and your platform's going to trade at 18. Like the investment committee decision there is not the hard part. The hard part is getting the CEO in pl…”
Alpine Investors has marked three consecutive funds at a 5x MOIC
“We have it marked at five X in our last three, and the fourth one is well on its way.”
Pairing B-plus industries with A-plus executives generates outsized alpha
“We'll, we'll look at B plus industries that other people really don't look at as much, but we've compared that with an A plus team. We found that to be just a great combination. We won't overpay for the A plus industry.”
Traditional search fund entrepreneurs often struggle to source and close acquisitions
“They usually mess up that first part. Like they, I mean, the investing is a pattern recognition business. They, you know, bankers don't want to sell to them because they're only going to ever do one deal with that banker. They have a clock ticking. So there's …”