Everything Fabrice Grinda said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Fabrice Grinda predicts UBS and Credit Suisse are too big to bail
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big. They're bigger, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it, and I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them, and…”
Grinda: Switzerland Is a House of Cards That Could Default
“Last year, as I was thinking through what are safe havens for cash, I was thinking of putting a lot of my cash in Swiss francs in Switzerland. And I did an analysis, and I realized, and I actually came to the conclusion that it's the opposite. I think Switzerl…”
Grinda: UBS and Credit Suisse Are Too Big for Switzerland to Bail Out
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it. And I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them.”
Grinda: Anduril products are extraordinarily high cost and not battle-tested
“Endural, and look, I'm an investor in Endural. The problem is their cost is extraordinarily high, and so the way you measure this is cost per kill, and they're not battle-tested.”
Grinda: Tech remains in the middle of an AI bubble
“We're still in the middle of an AI bubble. If you look at like the amount of money that's going into AI versus every other category in terms of valuations raised, the amount, the number of companies getting funded.”
Grinda: FJ Labs maintains 30% IRR by selling winners early
“I want to say the cheat code I use for IR, why I still can get 30% IR today, is the virtue of being diversified means I own two, one to three percent of any of the companies, and so what I've been doing is getting secondaries on the way up. So, I've been doing…”
Grinda: US lacks manufacturing capacity and would lose a war with China
“Right now, we don't have the manufacturing capacity. We would lose a war with China right now.”
Fabrice Grinda auto-signed all investment legal documents unread for 15 years
“For 15, actually, probably for 15 years, every document that was ever sent to me, legal document that was sent to me, SPA, Anything like companies selling, et cetera. I auto signed, or my, actually, my virtual assistant in the Philippines, who had my signature…”
Fabrice Grinda calls the degrowth movement bullshit, championing tech productivity instead
“The degrowth movement is bullshit, like no one wants to go back to being a farmer and having a life expectancy of 29, starving multiple times a year, so the only way we solve the problem is actually through technology-led productivity growth and deflation”
Grinda Auto-Signed All Angel Investment Legal Documents Without Reading Them
“Every document that was ever sent to me, legal document that was sent to me, SPA, anything like company selling, et cetera, I auto-signed, or actually my virtual assistant in the Philippines who had my signature would auto-sign for me all the docs that I never…”
Grinda: Crypto Is a Risk Asset, Not an Inflation Hedge
“Crypto is not An inflation hedge , it's still a risk asset”
Grinda Rejects Degrowth, Citing Technology-Led Productivity as the Sole Solution
“The degrowth movement is bullshit. Like, no one wants to go back to being a farmer and having a life expectancy of 29, starving multiple times a year. The only way we solve the problem is actually through technology-led productivity growth and deflation, and t…”
Grinda: Employer reference checks on startup founders are a negative signal
“We tried doing reference checks on founders and realized that they were a negative signal. Some of the very best founders were horrible employees. They would talk back to their bosses. They would work on their startup at their job. They had the worst reference…”
Grinda: Best time to invest in VC, but avoid all-AI funds
“I think it's the best time to invest, but the, in a way, investing in venture right now is contrarian, and I think you should be investing in funds That are not going after the lovingy, you know, AI, all AI, all the time category.”
Grinda: Investors underestimate the risk of total loss in fast-scaling AI
“I feel people are underestimating the risk of zeros, even though something can go from zero to a hundred million AR very quickly, and usually they're priced accordingly. And I, you know, I care about, like, what am I, what returns, what do you need to underwri…”
Grinda: AI disruption benefits startup marketplace incumbents over legacy giants
“The AI disruption is actually benefiting startup incumbents, because they have the data modes, and so it doesn't benefit eBay, you know, because they're slow and big, but it benefits, you know, an incumbent startup that has already liquidity, that is the most …”
Grinda: OpenAI and horizontal LLMs will dominate most AI model categories
“At the fundamental LLM level, I think the horizontal, you know, GPT may just win most categories. The same way that Google won search reasonably read large, except maybe kayak for travel. I suspect, I think OpenAI and JGPD win most of the LLM type categories”
Grinda: AI price competition will destroy investor value before winners emerge
“While I do think eventually a winner to emerge and they'll have the proper pricing power, and I do think in the long run you're able to extract value when you create value, there may be a lot of investor value destruction on the way up because people are compe…”
Grinda: Ukraine could become the manufacturing hub for defense technology
“I'm investing a lot actually in Ukrainian defense startups, because I think my vision is that Ukraine could become the manufacturing hub for defense.”
FJ Labs decides on startup investments after a single one-hour meeting
“And so I created a setup for a process for deciding in a one hour meeting if I would invest or not in a startup. And that's essentially one that we still use to this day, you know, with refinement over time.”
Fabrice Grinda argues technological progress always outperforms short-term macroeconomic cycles
“History trumps macro, right? Like, the last 200 years of I've been a history of technological progress that has led and innovation that has led improvements in the human condition. And over the last 200 years, despite world wars, the great depression... If you…”
Fabrice Grinda explains why $20 billion mega-funds cannot effectively write $10M checks
“If you're deploying twenty billion, You really don't get out of bed and write a ten million dollar a check very often because it just doesn't move the needle. Like there's no, you're not deploying enough capital. It's like a return of capital that you can make…”
Invest if passing means lifelong regret over a founder, says Fabrice Grinda
“When you start the statement with, this is a foundational generational company, and the founder is extraordinary, and I'm going to regret this decision the rest of your life. You are. Do not, if you write that, make the investment.”
Fabrice Grinda discloses a 45% realized annual IRR across 24 years
“In the last 24 years, and I've realized I are 45% a year. And then in the unrealized, we have like 650 companies or so, it's like also 45% implied IRR.”