Everything Andrew Milgram said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Milgram: 2025 Business Bankruptcies Will Remain High or Increase
“Based on the data we see to date and the bankruptcies that we've already seen in 2025, we would expect 2025 to show persistent and possibly higher number of business bankruptcy filings.”
Milgram: Tariffs over 5% will devastate middle-market margins and debt service
“For the middle market, though anything above like a five or six percent tariff will have a devastating impact on margin, and consequently on the ability to service their debt stock.”
Milgram: Most Distressed Investors Merely Trade Cheap High Yield
“Today, a lot of, you know, the folks that call themselves distressed investors, again, I view them as buying cheap high yield and sort of Participating as pure financial investors and portfolio traders but they will outsource all of that critical thinking.”
Milgram: Early Uber Expanded NYC Car Service Rather Than Stealing Taxi Riders
“There was this perception that they were taking riders away from taxis, and that was not at all the case. The data was super clear. They were expanding point-to-point car service in New York. They were taking drivers away from yellow.”
Milgram: Uber exploited information asymmetry by pushing non-cash costs onto drivers
“Uber was taking advantage of an information asymmetry, so they understood that a driver didn't really understand the full picture of their cost structure, and that they were making a very cash-based decision, but they were pushing a lot of those non-cash or no…”
Milgram: Taxi medallions will become capital assets for autonomous vehicle fleets
“While autonomous will probably someday displace the driver and therefore displace their earnings power, you can swap that earnings power for the ability to contribute capital, right? So the medallion becomes a capital asset that they contribute into the system…”
Milgram: Fitch Data Shows 82% of Private Credit Is Single-B- or Lower
“According to Fitch, about 82% of, ah, the private credit market exists in the single B minus and lower credit, credit quality space.”
Milgram: Fitch Shows Largest Share of Private Credit Is CCC-Equivalent Debt
“Triple C's, for instance, default at about a three year, 30% cumulative default rate. So you know, the largest portion of private credit, according to Fitch, is in triple C equivalent.”
Milgram: Private Credit Has Become Largely a Brokered Market
“The private credit universe used to be a direct origination business. There is some direct origination that goes on in private credit today, but it's largely a brokered market which is a kind of a dirty little secret.”
Creditor-on-creditor violence and priming transactions will increase in coming years
“And this creditor on creditor violence is a rising trend that I don't see going away anytime soon. Until the creditor groups start to write tighter credit agreements, or the courts define very narrow guidelines around how these credit agreements can be interpr…”
Credit investors are obligated by fiduciary duty to seize value creation
“And I think there's a much more level playing field today, and I think that, look, we all have a fiduciary duty to the investors we serve, and so if the opportunity for value creation exists, it's your obligation to take it.”
NYC yellow taxi driver profitability is superior to Uber driver earnings
“The profitability of a yellow taxi driver was superior to that of an Uber driver.”
Many levered borrowers are already unable to satisfy their debts
“What we see today as we look at the earnings power of companies that we're talking to lenders about, that they are in that place already. They are facing real inability to satisfy their debts as they come due, which is one of the classic destinations of insolv…”
Milgram: U.S. middle-market EBITDA is down 20% to 25% since 2019
“I think over the measurement period in the most recent data EBITDA has been down sort of 20, 25% since 2019.”
Milgram: Middle-market net profits after tax are consistently negative over two years
“When we look in the middle market, we see that that net profits after tax is down almost 200% over the measurement period. So that is, it is consistently negative over the past two years.”
Milgram: 2023 Data Showed Almost 25% of Middle-Market Companies Missed Debt Service
“In the 2023 data, we saw that almost 25% of the companies in the data set couldn't make their debt service coverage.”
Milgram: 2024 Data Showed Another 20% Missed Debt Service Coverage
“The 24 data that we're living with now in 25 showed that another 20% of the data set couldn't make their debt service coverage.”
Milgram: Tariffs will not harm and could benefit large public companies
“For the ticker tape economy, the tariffs are not going to be terrible. In fact, they could be constructive.”
Milgram: Middle-Market Companies Still Get Most Capital From Banks
“The middle market continues to get most of its capital out of the banking system.”
Milgram: Top Turnaround Firms Cost Too Much for Middle-Market Companies
“There are some great firms out there FTI, Alvarez, Alex Partners that specialize in doing that, you know, again, particularly on behalf of the portfolio investors who are more traders in this space than investors. But, A, those firms are large. They have large…”
Milgram: Banks act as regulatory actors rather than economic actors
“Banks always make decisions for three reasons. Regulatory, regulatory, and regulatory. They, people think of banks as economic actors. They're not. They're regulatory actors.”
Milgram: Investing in distressed assets without operational involvement is malpractice
“I would argue it's almost like investment malpractice to invest in a distressed asset, not taking an active operational role in addition to the financial restructuring role.”
Milgram: IRS paid $200B in ERTC claims within one year
“I think when the government did this we've heard some estimates that say they anticipated it to be a fifty billion dollar program. About a year in they had paid out two hundred billion.”
Milgram: Marblegate bought ERTC claims at 85-86 cents on the dollar
“We were paying about 85, 86 cents on the dollar. One of the provisions of the law was that from when you filed, the government owed you an interest rate while you waited for the refund six or seven percent.”