The Calls, every show
Every prediction date on 44 shows that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
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every show 44 of 44
Everyone Jason Lemkin (127)Chamath Palihapitiya (119)Rory O'Driscoll (115)Jason Calacanis (78)David Sacks (69)David Friedberg (63)Harry Stebbings (47)David Senra (45)Brad Gerstner (43)Alex Kantrowitz (38)John Coogan (37)Shaan Puri (36)
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The record (80) every resolved claim →
Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more
“Tesla had to IPO. Now it was a different time. It really barely had any revenue, but same guy running them. It IPO'd at 1.7 billion, which seemed very expensive. 1.7 billion. The sister company will IPO at 1.7 trillion or one trillion.”
Lemkin: AI will enable 20-to-40-person teams to build billion-dollar companies
“If you allow for some outsourcing agencies resources that come and go, I think we will see a bunch of 20, 30, 40 person, billion dollar companies because a core of engineers, a bunch of AIs making, and people are going to be like, you know what, dude, not, I d…”
Lemkin: Elon Musk or xAI Will Sue Apple
“He's incensed, and he's got a lot of money in XAI. I mean, he has, he's the richest man in the world, but he doesn't have unlimited capital, so I think it happens.”
Lemkin: B2B software vendors will bundle AI for free in SMB plans
“Next generation AI for B to B, as you approach true SMB, it's more and more going to be base and included with a limited upsell opportunity.”
Lemkin: Anthropic Will Reach $50B in Revenue in Four Years
“Anthropics revenue is like nothing we've ever seen. Okay. It'll be at fifty billion in less than four years or four years plus or minus.”
Customers Will Pay Higher Prices for Canva as It Becomes Agentic
“Now people are going to start paying more for Canva as Canva gets more gentic with two point O.”
Lemkin: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI will rush IPOs due to capital pressure
“What all three of those say to me is there's no matter, there's subtle pressure around access to capital. Like they've all got to have an IPO strategy sooner than they'd hoped because Data center, because XAI needs capital, because Anthropic is even worried ab…”
Lemkin: Elon Musk Will Not Settle With OpenAI and Will Win
“They ain't going to settle for that. He's going to go to trial and he's going to win.”
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable will surpass $250M combined ARR
“I would say over, over two 50, but barely.”
Lemkin: Tech companies will absorb $400M per IPO when markets recover
“When the engine revolves, we will absorb four hundred million again per IPO.”
Lemkin: Menlo Ventures will 10x to 15x its investment in Chime
“They said they did the Series B, right? So they did the Series B at 203 hundred. Maybe we can figure it out on the fly. They're going to, this will be a nine. There'll be some dilution. They'll 10 or 15 X their money, right? That'll be a fun returner or more t…”
Lemkin: Venture funding and valuations will never return to 2021 peaks
“For founders, you have to understand that will never lead to a return of 2021. Never.”
Lemkin: Employees joining a $1B unicorn in 2023 will make nothing
“If as an employee, if you join a company with, in, in 2023 with a valuation over a billion as an employee, you're gonna make nothing. It doesn't matter what it sells for, you're gonna make nothing.”
Lemkin: First founder-VC pitch meetings will never happen in person again
“Like the first meetings will never happen in person again, right? Even if you're in San Francisco, you're all in San Francisco, they'll never happen.”
Lemkin: OneStream will IPO at $500M revenue growing 34%
“I mean, the new, the next one's one stream, right? They're gonna IPO at five hundred million in revenue, growing 30 some odd percent, 34%.”
Lemkin: SpaceX IPO will be a dud and will not trade up
“I think the IPO nominally will be a dud. I don't think it will trade up dramatically.”
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Lemkin: Elon Musk will force underwriters to meet SpaceX target IPO valuation
“I think Elon, what Elon said Publicly on X, it ain't going to be two trillion. Maybe he'll change his mind. He said two trillion was too high. So whatever his number is, I think he's going to get it on IPO day. He's going to will it into existence. The underwr…”
Lemkin: US government will block Anthropic indefinitely regardless of court rulings
“The government's going to say you're either going to agree to this or we're going to freeze you out of the US economy. And it doesn't matter what a court says. Because they'll come up with another justification. There'll be another one. There'll be a different…”
Lemkin: Replit V4 will autonomously build software features overnight
“I know on the next release of Replit, not only does it happen because they've built their own set of guard roles, but the agents do it at night. So in the next release of Replit, when you log in the next day, it will have built three to four features for you o…”
Lemkin: Fortune 500 will actively replace human employees with AI by year-end
“By the end of this year, that, that train is going to be so far out of the station that, that these growth numbers will be jaw dropping because we will decide enterprises will the fortune 500 or global 2000 will decide we are replacing humans with AI.”
Lemkin: Most SDRs and qualifying BDRs will be eliminated by 2026
“And I really think most SDRs will die next year, but the meat, and I know we throw around these terms differently. The BDR that sort of smarmily qualifies you that that's going to die. Like we just, there's no need for that with these tools.”
Lemkin: 2026 will mark the end of entry-level sales jobs
“There'll be, this is the year where we will see the end of so many entry-level sales jobs. We still need AEs. We still need people knocking on doors. We do not need two-year-old kids sending emails. Those jobs will disappear.”
Lemkin: 2026 will see one or two trillion-dollar tech IPOs
“The idea that we will have a trillion dollar IPO next year, maybe two, we might have two trillion dollar IPOs”
Lemkin: Lovable will reach $400M ARR by end of next year
“First, I have no doubts. That's easier to do the math. One to a hundred in six months. I mean, that would be a colossal F-up if it doesn't get to 400.”
Lemkin: Market gains will produce the first half-trillionaire by 2026
“I'm making a bet. I'm actually making the bet it's higher. I'm all in on the market. Wow. I'm betting your twenty-twenty-six number, even though it's not really consistent with reversion to the mean for gains of public activities, right?”
Lemkin: Claude Code will aggressively attack Figma's business this year
“So I believe it will aggressively attack parts of Figma this year, even though they're key partners.”
Lemkin: Stripe, Figma, Chime, and Canva will IPO within 18 months
“Stripe, Figma Chime, the list of folks north of five hundred million, ok, Canva, three billion, that are gonna IPO in the next 18 months.”
Lemkin: Early SaaStr portfolio company will announce $300M+ exit soon
“Now I do have one exit, one company I did a long time ago with this and you know, they're going to have a big, three hundred million dollar plus exit to announce soon.”
Lemkin: Figma and AI coding tools will compete within 12 months
“Today, they're great partners. It doesn't make sense that they will be great partners for prototyping in 12 months. It makes no sense.”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Microsoft will settle antitrust tensions privately
“I don't think Microsoft wants to be sued by any trust. So I think it's going to get worked out.”
Lemkin: By next year, AI will generate synthetic multi-person video discussions
“Next year, it will be me and Yamini talking for 10 minutes about AI, and neither of us will have had the conversation.”
Lemkin: OpenAI's hardware device will launch within a year for $20
“This is going to be huge. It will launch in a year. It will be massively subsidized. So it'll be 20 bucks for this device. Okay. They will figure out the form factor. I don't know what the right combination is, whether it's embedded in your ear, like the baris…”
Lemkin: Digital AI sales engineers will soon join live sales calls
“I think A digital SE like this is Brian Halligan's digital one on Delphi is going to come to the zooms. The human it's a person is going to be there. And I brought this up and Dara said, give me another release and this will be full duplex. Like my AI and Bria…”
Lemkin predicts Klaviyo will surpass Shopify in SaaS revenue in years
“They will cross, they will be doing more SaaS revenue than Shopify in a couple years.”
Lemkin: Pro-M&A Trump policies will trigger a golden age of tech M&A
“So there's going to be a wave of more M&A, right? Especially if, you know, pros and cons looking at the stock market, but if Trump remains pro M&A, You know, as long as your pesky Europe doesn't get in the way this is going to be a golden age of M&A. Like, jus…”
Lemkin: New thin-wrapper AI IDEs will continually emerge
“In, in six months, if these are rappers, more, a new windsurf is going to emerge. It's just an IDE on top of the same models, right?”
Lemkin: Wiz must IPO within 18 months after rejecting Google bid
“When the CEOs in, in, in, in the letter to the team says, we're going to go public instead, you got to do it in the next 18 months or so.”
Lemkin: ElevenLabs will reach $300 million in revenue this year
“The tools are either so disruptive, like a cursor or replica or lovable or 11 labs will go from like almost nothing to three hundred million this year.”
Lemkin: AI presentation platform Gamma will reach $80 million in revenue in 2024
“We read about gamma and we love gamma for AI presentations, one to eighty million that we'll do this year, but it was founded in 20, 20. So it was five years to one and then one to 80 this year.”
Lemkin: Tim Cook will not step down as Apple CEO this year
“So it's their job, but there's no way it's this year. Unless it's a health issue, there's no way it's going to be this year.”
Lemkin: OpenAI's stock compensation will remain above 100% of revenue this year
“Now that's a lot, but it projected it would fall to 45% this year. It's not going to happen. Now it's going to still be in the triple digits.”
Lemkin: Zero chance of a US economic recession by end of 2025
“There's no chance we have a recession at the end of the year. There's just no chance.”
Lemkin: Apple will announce US iPhone assembly operations within the year
“I think, listen, I don't, I would have to do more analysis to see if, it's not possible, right? If it's close to impossible, but announcing it and beginning a process, you might have to do it. You just might have to do it. I'm going to go yes.”
Lemkin: Google stakeholders will do almost anything to keep CEO Sundar Pichai
“So I suspect it's similar at Google, right? I suspect none of the large stakeholders want him to go no matter what, and they will do almost anything to keep him.”
Lemkin: OpenAI will not reveal ChatGPT-5 this year
“It will happen, but given all the activity, it wouldn't be surprised to me if it pushes a year longer, right? ... I'm saying I think no”
Lemkin bets $20k that public SaaS multiples reach 8x by end of 2025
“Yeah, I'll do 20 grand at 12:31. At the end of 2025, we're back to an eight X world.”
Lemkin: Venture mega funds will resurge in late 2024 and 2025
“I think they're going to reflate at the end of next year. I think there will be a resurgence of mega funds in late 2024 and 20 25.”
Lemkin: A US-China TikTok deal will be signed within 60 days
“Whatever this crazy deal is, it's going to get signed in the next 60. I think these deals are going to get done this calendar year, and I think it's going to get signed”
Lemkin: Greenhouse will probably IPO in two years
“Fourth one is Greenhouse, which is over there, ok? They're doing hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, and will probably IPO in two years.”
Lemkin: Wiz will reach $1B ARR within 12 months
“This company will be at a billion in a blink of an eye, so let's, let's just value it at a billion. It's gonna be there in 12 months, 14 months, nine months, it's a billion forward.”
Lemkin: Trump Mobile smartphone will not release before September 2025
“It's impossible. There's no supply chain evidence of any phone in production. There haven't been any leaks of an actual phone in production. And there haven't been any leaks to sites of true product development other than a mock-up of a golden phone.”
Lemkin: CrowdStrike product upsells will be put on hold for three quarters
“So I think almost upsells are going to have to go on hold for like, you know, three quarters.”
Lemkin: ServiceTitan will probably be the first SaaS IPO of 2024
“I think that'll be the first SAS IPO of 20, 24.”
Lemkin: Algolia crossed $200M in revenue and will IPO next year
“Second one, Algolia, worth three billion, doing over two hundred million, we'll IPO next year.”
Lemkin: Algolia, Talkdesk, Greenhouse, or SalesLoft will likely IPO in 2024
“We had a panel of Algolia, Talkdisk, Greenhouse, and I think SalesLoft, they're all at two hundred million and at least three of them, I think, will IPO next year.”
Lemkin: Stripe will go public in 2024
“I think so. I think 2024 is the year of you might as well go public.”
Lemkin: Tech Market Will See an IPO Week in H2 2024
“I have a lot of money with Harry that it's an IPO week in the second half of twenty-twenty-four.”
Lemkin: Public tech leaders will increase headcount 20%+ next year
“I think average hiring will be like, 20% in public leaders next year. I think they'll be hiring 20% or more. I think layoffs are so far behind us. 20% or more I think the average public company will hire next year.”
Lemkin: VC dollar deployment into AI will double in 2024
“I'm talking about dollars. I'm convinced right or wrong, it's going to double next year, even if it makes no actual sense. It's going to, it's too big.”
Lemkin predicts 26 tech companies will IPO in H2 2024
“And I may have the timing all wrong. I'm too optimistic, but I think there's 26 of them, which is one a week. I think there's 26 good companies at 200 that can IPO in 26 weeks in the back average.”
Lemkin: 2024 will be rich with tech IPOs and solid multiples
“But twenty-twenty-four will be rich with IPOs, and it will be a good year with solid multiples. Solid multiples.”
Lemkin: Search API company Algolia will IPO in 2024
“And then I'll go, it was my second. That's where 2.5 billion will IPO next year.”
Lemkin: Recruiting software company Greenhouse will IPO in 2024
“I did Parklet greenhouse, which will IPO next year. They're at two hundred million.”
Lemkin: CrowdStrike market cap will rebound to $83B by Christmas 2024
“I'm going to guess it bridges 50% of the gap. So was it a hundred? Today it's at 66. So I'm going to guess it makes back 17%, half of that. So what does that bring us up to 80? 83? I'll go 83.”
Lemkin wagers $2,000 that recent tech IPOs stay above IPO price
“I'll say all three are up. I'll go two grand on this one.”
Jason Lemkin bets $10,000 that Klaviyo stock will rise 20% within 12 months
“I'll bet 10 grand to anyone that takes it that Klaviyo, 12 months from when this episode goes out or today, whatever Harry says, trades at 20% or higher from where it is today. I'll bet 10 grand it's 20% or higher.”
Lemkin: Klaviyo will be a monster IPO and trade over $10B
“I really think all the VCs are gonna get excited about Klaviyo. It's gonna be a monster IPO. I think it'll trade over to ten billion.”
Lemkin: Klaviyo will be worth close to $10 billion
“Klaviyo is going to be worth, I think, close to ten billion.”
Lemkin: Public SaaS multiples will rebound 20% to 40% by late 2023
“And so I'm pretty bullish at the end of this year. I'm bullish that multiples will be up somewhere between 20 and 40%, and I believe that will lead to a rush to deploy capital, but for founders, you have to understand that will never lead to a return of 2021.”
Lemkin: SaaS multiples will rise 20% to 40% by end of 2023
“And so I'm pretty bullish at the end of this year. I'm bullish that multiples will be Up somewhere between 20 and 40%, and I believe that will lead to a rush to deploy capital, but for founders, you have to understand that will never lead to a return of 2021.”
Lemkin: LP appetite for emerging VC managers could evaporate within 12 months
“I wouldn't be shocked if that evaporates in the next 12 months. If the appetite for the new, the next one just is, is gone. If it's just evaporates at the LP level”
Lemkin: B2B SaaS Startups Will Avoid Widespread Layoffs Due to Cash Reserves
“I don't think there's going to be very many layoffs or issues and B to B companies because they're very well funded.”
Lemkin: SaaStr Annual Will Reach Over 10,000 Attendees in 2022
“We could not, I mean, we'll have over 10,000 this year.”
Lemkin: Founders should model a 50% drop in VC deals and funding
“I think for founders and other folks that are on this, I would model today, 50% decline in the number of companies that get funded and 50% decline in the dollars that go out there.”
Lemkin: Zenefits will reach $100M revenue in 24 months
“Zenefits will go one to a hundred million in revenue in 24 months.”