Loeb: Third Point is investing outside tech in adaptable management teams
“We're investing Outside of tech into companies that have you know, some great, well, first of all, it also comes back to the management because we can't really just look at a product or a technology and say, oh, this is going to be it forever. So we really loo…”
Loeb: Third Point has been shorting homebuilder-related equities
“We had, ah, a really strong view on home builders from last year that, ah, there were two things going on. It wasn't just It wasn't just rates, mortgage spreads that were depressing housing prices, that home prices, that the home building industry was first st…”
Dan Loeb: Third Point sold all its Palantir stock in the $20s
“We were we were private investors in Palantir And I think we sold all our stock in the twenties.”
Loeb: Third Point avoids taking board seats to maintain liquidity
“That was one, I think we learned not to go on boards anymore because it restricts your ability to be liquid”
Loeb: Third Point would have made $4B if it kept Enphase stock
“We're also early investors in, in end phase. And we Sold some stock on the IPO, and then took a tax hit, and I think sold it under a dollar, and the stock, I think had we stayed on, would have made four billion dollars.”
Loeb: Spinoff management teams sandbag forecasts to optimize incentive packages
“Management teams would go out in the case of a spinoff. And do a road show that would present a very conservative view. Some might even say sandbag the numbers. Why? Because people are always creatures of incentives. Their incentive package would be set at the…”
Loeb: Dogmatic Deep-Value Focus Caused Widespread Investor Underperformance
“I think if you look at a lot of the people who have underperformed or haven't survived the last decade or so, when people are really stuck on the idea of deep value, low multiples, and being really stubborn about How they viewed businesses and less flexible ab…”
Loeb: AI Disruption Rapidly Degraded Supposedly High-Quality Businesses
“Now what happened last year was really interesting because a lot of these companies that appeared to be super high quality, probably the worst year and going into the beginning of this year because the disruption of AI, a lot of these apparently high quality c…”
Loeb: Most Third Point campaigns succeed without taking board seats
“Most of the time in our experiences, we've been able to work with existing boards and kind of redirecting them and offering solutions, or sometimes we don't even have to get on the board to get those things done.”
Loeb: Third Point targets boards driven by status and income
“I think if you're on a board because you are either getting status or you're getting income and that's your primary reason for doing it, not for representing shareholders, then that's where we come in to try to disintermediate that and take away some of the st…”
Loeb details Third Point's credit, CLO, and liability asset breakdown
“Across the fund we have a CLO business with about seven billion dollars in it. Within Third Point itself we have about 30% of a, which would make it about close to three billion dollars in structured credit and corporate credit, but that's within the hedge fun…”
Loeb: Third Point made discounted Twitter debt its largest credit position
“The Twitter debt was a resale of the financing debt that was offered when Elon bought the company. Morgan Stanley sat on it for a while. It was deep underwater. When it got close to par, they decided to sell it. Most credit investors were really scared and ner…”
Loeb: Third Point participated in xAI debt financing despite no cash flow
“And then when, ah, XAI did a debt financing, ah, very few credit people wanted to play in that one because there was no cash flow. Two million dollars, two billion dollars in revenues and a twenty billion dollar, ah, enterprise value, but we were very comforta…”
Loeb: AI and hyperscalers are the most attractive market sector
“Unless you are really draconian or negative, and you think that somehow the AI world is going to roll over in 31 or 32, I think it's some of the most attractive, you know, I think it's the most attractive sector right now. It's where the bulk of our capital is…”
Loeb: Current AI Tech Does Not Have a Dot-Com Valuation Bubble
“So, I, it's very different from the dot-com bubble, which we were short, you know, going into and had good numbers in those years. I just don't see, you don't have the valuation bubble now on those companies that you had on, on, on those companies back in thos…”
Loeb: Bullish on Korea, Taiwan, and Japan; Europe Tough Due to Regulation
“In terms of the big markets, yeah, there's a lot going on in Korea, Taiwan, Japan. I'm Probably more bullish on just in terms of a hunting ground to find great companies. The European markets are just tough right now, given the regulatory environment. They jus…”
Loeb: Third Point Now Checks Bank Balances After the FTX Fraud
“I will say that now our due diligence process, we definitely, like, check bank balances and do, like, the most basic due diligence that probably would have, you know, turned stuff up on, on this.”
Loeb: Third Point Underestimated AI's Disruption of Info Services
“The mistake that we made within the last two years, we obviously were looking for, and we've made some great short investments in, or so we've taken some great shorts and things that are being disrupted
By AI, but where we've made the mistake is that we're con…”
Loeb: Third Point is launching a new insurance company
“We're starting a new insurance company.”
Dan Loeb: AI will create net jobs rather than economic apocalypse
“I think we're probably more optimistic or I should say that maybe less pessimistic that there's going to be some kind of
You know, apocalypse from AI, like I, I'm still pretty optimistic that it will create opportunities and create jobs and create net jobs.
Ob…”
Loeb: Third Point's strong 2020 came from IG credit, not stocks
“So, going back to, like, COVID, the thing that we got really right, because we had a good year that year, but it wasn't because we piled into stocks, we piled into, you know, IG credit when it was, so, maybe that's answering the question a little bit different…”
Ober: Third Point uses data to evaluate existing ideas rather than mine new ones
“Rather than mining data for new ideas, we're almost looking for data to help us understand the ideas we may already have, or to, you know, create very sophisticated screens, you know, looking across all these companies to kind of dwindle down a smaller list of…”
Ober: Shared alternative datasets increase stock volatility around corporate earnings
“Yeah, I think it brings more volatility into, you know, events, earnings, especially for firms that are trading around these events, where everybody's looking at the same credit card data.”
Ober: Simpler financial models outperform complex machine learning over time
“Going back to the very basics, you kind of find that, like, the simpler it is, the better it actually performs over time, if you're not trading at this higher frequency.”
Third Point aims to centralize thousands of datasets for instant company analysis
“As a team, it's, you know, how do we incorporate and leverage all this rich and unique data that's out there and kind of bring it into one real centralized place. So to really understand companies and coming from thousands of different data sets so that we can…”
Ober: Third Point requires ML stock picks to be explainable to managers
“When the model creates a list of companies for us that we should go invest in, we need to be then able to explain to our you know, PMs and analysts internally what's driving that decision, and they really want to get into the deep roots of why it's picking tho…”
Ober: Third Point looks to outsource data structuring and ingestion
“It's something we do do ourself. I think it's one of those areas where data structuring, even data ingestion and onboarding data sets is something that us and most firms are looking at how do we, you know, outsource that to another company because we're only s…”