Ryan Petersen: Remote work is white-collar fraud
“Well, I got, I say it's white collar fraud.”
Petersen: Selling SaaS to tech companies will become the toughest market
“I think selling SaaS to tech companies is gonna be the toughest, because we can build stuff for ourselves.”
Ryan Petersen: Revenge and patriotism make a great investment thesis
“Revenge and patriotism is a great investment thesis.”
Petersen: Most VCs collude more with competitors than their own partners
“There's a lot of collusion in VC. Like, I have a feeling that most VCs actually collude more with competitors than with their own partners.”
Petersen: Flexport generated over $2B in revenue last year
“My first Excel my first and only financial model that I made for myself for the business got to one million of revenue, right? Like, we did over two billion last year, so.”
Ryan Petersen: Driven by power and doing big things, not money
“Yeah, I mean, I haven't been that motivated by money. I'm more into, like power. I want to do big things.”
Petersen: AI providers might cut off customer APIs to train superintelligence
“There's a realistic scenario that they decide the compute that they have is more valuable for training super intelligence than it is for letting customers use it. And they stop, you know, just cut us off.”
Petersen: Flexport headcount will stay flat as AI replaces manual operations
“It might be about the same. We're hiring a lot of salespeople and we're expanding a lot in new markets, but I think you're going to see like a shift from people that today do operations, kind of manual work that I was describing earlier into, okay, you've got …”
Petersen: AI can double salesperson capacity, but sales remains relationship-driven
“And like, there's a limit to how many relationships a human can have. And I think you can probably use those to use AI and use other techniques to like double that ratio or something, but like there's some limit to how many relationships you can maintain. And …”
Petersen: Flexport won major client after competitor laid off embedded worker
“And we had this recent, we just had this huge customer win, one of our biggest ever. And I was like, wow, this is great. But I had heard that our competitor makes their Has one of these forward deployed logisticians, like, and runs their RFP, runs their proces…”
Petersen: Anthropic is a better investment than OpenAI at equal valuation
“I think I'm going Anthropic. No offense, because Sam's a friend of mine, but. Yeah, the enterprise business seems great. And the team, I think there's a lot of value of like this cohesive team that's been together forever, and OpenAI's had ups and downs, and p…”
Petersen: B2B marketing strategies decay immediately when competitors copy them
“In enterprise marketing. The moment something works, it stops working because the competitors will copy it.”
Petersen: High marketing spending serves as a quality signal in enterprise B2B
“And it's expensive as a feature in enterprise marketing. Cause it's like, you wouldn't spend a lot of money on something promoting something if it wasn't good. So it must be good.”
Petersen: Startups do not need a CMO to execute B2B event marketing
“B to B marketing is events marketing to some extent, and like, that, that's like plain vanilla, but by the way, you don't need an exec, you don't need to go hire a CMO to run events.”
Petersen: HR leaders must represent the CEO, not act as employee union reps
“I mean, I think the thing that you cannot have is them being like union representatives of your employees. They're not. They're there to represent the company, and therefore the CEO, and so if there's, if you don't have that as a CEO, like a trusted HR Leader …”
Petersen: Threatening to build in-house tools yields 20% SaaS discounts
“I think you get like 20% out of almost everybody.”
Petersen: Flexport will focus engineering on replacing labor, not SaaS
“I don't want to dedicate that much of our engineering resources to replacing SaaS. Like I want to build, I want to replace work, like expensive labor, and I want to build our product and make it way better. So I don't, I want to, like, focus on our core busine…”
Petersen: Identifying terrible founders in YC is easier than picking winners
“It wasn't obvious who was great. It was obvious who was terrible, though, and I think if you can eliminate the bottom half, like, you're doing pretty well inside of a YC batch.”
Ryan Petersen: I was the first angel investor in Rippling
“I was the first investor in Rippling. Put a big check into that. Did really well.”
Petersen: Most VCs ghosted Flexport after pitch meetings
“I had, like, a lot that seemed like they went well, and then they never invested, and the number of investors who ghosted me, by the way, after the pitch, the vast majority, I would say. Where I pitched him, it seemed great, and then it's just like, never hear…”
Petersen: Sam Altman Was One of Flexport's Earliest Investors
“Sam was one of our early, earliest investors”
Petersen: 3X Angel Returns Have Zero Impact Compared to 500X Outliers
“Once you see the world from the perspective of the angel investor, you realize that we really don't care. Even a three X, like if you take my spreadsheet and this investment made three times the money, like the founder is very proud. Like, Hey, I made you thre…”
Petersen: Mark Angel Investments to Zero Immediately to Avoid Anxiety
“And when I write a check as an angel investor, I would just mark it to zero. I don't care. I just assume that it's a zero. And then that way I don't worry if it fails.”
Petersen: Flexport will never need to raise capital again
“I don't need to raise any money ever again.”
Abbott: Flexport's warehouses are full and adding capacity
“I think the last I heard from Ryan is their warehouses are full. They're adding more capacity. It's a pretty meaningful business now.”
Petersen: We could have become Shopify with our early e-commerce software
“Like if we'd have been smart, like Toby was, we had to sell subscriptions to our little platform and maybe could have been Shopify, but instead we just like bought motorcycles and sold them on eBay motors and Actually through live car auctions, our own website…”
Petersen crashed Y Combinator sessions with his brother before founding Flexport
“Y Combinator at that time did not have great security, so I would just go with him to all the Y Combinator Sessions and just said, like, acted like I was part of his company, even though I kind of was.”
Viral Apple leak drove ImportGenius to $50K monthly revenue
“We got within a week, we were doing like 50,000 dollars in monthly revenue. Like all of a sudden, you know, from zero to 50,000 in a couple of weeks.”
Flexport participated in Paul Graham's final Y Combinator batch
“Yeah, really lucky that I, not only was the last batch, but he announced it mid-batch, so you didn't take it for granted that you were getting this time with Paul.”
Petersen stepped down as CEO believing Dave Clark was a better operator
“I thought, I think Dave's going to be better at the job than I am. That was genuinely true. That's why I did it. It wasn't because I was burnt out or something. I just thought he would be better for the company. I thought we needed to mature and be better at o…”
Paul Graham advised Petersen to never surrender his company to an executive
“He said that's like saying this other guy would be a better husband for your wife. Might be true, but like, don't act on it. Like, this is your company. You need to stay in there.”
Micromanagement is just attention to detail unless the boss lacks judgment
“Like micromanagement and attention to detail, same, two words for the same thing, right? Attention to detail is great. Like your boss is involved in your stuff. Like that's only a problem if your boss is an idiot and out of touch and making bad decisions. But …”
Brian Chesky's founder involvement rule does not scale for Flexport
“I think he says like, if the company should only do as many things as the founder can be personally involved in, it's a nice ideal. It doesn't work at my company. We're like in all these different countries and all these different modes of transport that like …”
Petersen barred an external executive hire from making decisions for 90 days
“I've only hired one person, actually, from external in the last couple years, and I spent just, like, loads of time with him. And I told him he's not allowed to make any decisions for 90 days.”
VCs cannot provide useful business strategy advice to obsessive founders
“It's why, like, no investor ever gives me useful advice, really. Because like, I'm not, sure, they can about people and some high-level stuff, for sure, or capital markets, but like, Business, like, strategy? Like, how could they ever know my business better t…”
Flexport requires 26 teams to submit monthly six-page strategy reviews
“There's about 26 teams that do an MBR, a monthly business review, and a six pager, and then that's just like, it doesn't, I think we cap it at six, but it's, the six isn't that important... So we have, I think, 25 or 26 teams that write those monthly, and then…”
U.S. tariffs are causing Flexport customers to halt domestic manufacturing
“I haven't met anyone who said, oh, because of these tariffs, I'm gonna start doing production in the U.S. I've read some headlines on it, and they've done some White House announcements and things, but like, those aren't my customer base. And my customer base …”
Freight volume changes often reflect inventory hedging rather than true consumer demand
“There's a lot of weirdness in lately in this tariffs data that is just like, I don't know if that means, you want to know what the consumers are doing ultimately. What are they buying and selling? And a lot of, there's just a huge amount of noise. Like they di…”
Government economic and inventory survey datasets are inherently unreliable
“I know how hard it is to get accurate data out of my own company, so the idea of the government economists getting accurate data about all of the companies, I'm like always very skeptical on these things. I was so skeptical on like big government data sets.”
Founders should apply AI to traditional domains rather than building core AI
“I always say that to people who are like building AI companies. It's just like, what a nightmare. Your competitors are literally AI geniuses. Like you should find a way to apply AI in some other domain. So you're not competing with the smartest people on plane…”
Flexport handles approximately 0.1% of global containerized trade
“We're only about .one percent of global trade in the containerized, in the world, in the domain in which we play.”
Flexport aims to cut global shipping costs by 5% to 10%
“Actually, I think we can lower the cost of shipping anything by five to 10%.”
Petersen: Tariff anomaly forced US bicycle maker overseas after ten years
“Bicycles can be imported duty free, but bicycle components cannot.
so they've decided after a decade of manufacturing in the U.S. That they now have to produce overseas because they can import the finished goods and not pay duty, but if they import the compon…”
Petersen: A dozen US manufacturers recently decided to stop domestic production
“I've seen a dozen examples in the last few months of companies that are, were producing in the U.S. And decided to stop.”
Petersen: Human warehouse workers set a very high bar for robots
“Humans are just so dexterous and intelligent and not that expensive that, like, you know, it's a very high bar to clear for these robots because humans are really good at the job.”
Petersen: Warehouse robots most likely will not be humanoid
“Humanoid actually doesn't solve a lot of problems because you don't get more density out of your warehouse. You want real estate density. You want to be able to stack the goods all the way to the ceiling, jam them in. So it's more, the form factor is not going…”
Petersen: Flexport fulfillment centers use minimal robotics
“At least at Flexport, we're so, we have minimal robots in our fulfillment centers. We're mostly people.”
Petersen: China-to-US ocean freight bookings have dropped 60%
“Yeah, it's a little bit, so like, so you've had a 60% decline in bookings of ocean freight from China to the US. That's resulted in a 25% decline of sailings.”
Petersen: 60% of Amazon third-party sellers are Chinese companies
“I think it's 60% of all the sellers on Amazon are these Chinese registered. They're not registered in the United States at all, just Chinese companies selling.”
Petersen: Flexport's AI customs classification reached high 90s accuracy
“Six years ago in a hackathon, we got to like, 70% accuracy. We're now in high nineties accuracy versus what a human trained expert will get to.”
Petersen: I am firmly anti-tariff because it hurts Flexport's business
“I'm very firmly anti-tariff. It's bad for my business.”
Petersen predicts short-term goods recession driven by higher consumer prices
“Short term is going to be a lot, a goods recession for sure. I mean, there'll be less goods sold because prices will be higher.”
Byers: Flexport is the only deal Susa ever committed to on a phone call
“We committed to Ryan on the phone. It's the only time we've ever done that in SUSE history. We committed to the deal on the phone call.”
Petersen: Get teams working weekends via impossible deadlines, not requests
“The way to get people to work on nights and weekends is not to ask them to work nights and weekends. It's just give them a deadline that can only be met if they work on nights and weekends.”
Petersen: Import Genius Still Generates Millions in EBITDA
“Still am. Still am. It's still a good business.”
Ryan Petersen dined at Charlie Munger's house seven or eight times.
“I had dinner at his house seven or eight times before he passed. I went to his 99th birthday party last year, actually.”
Petersen: Learning foreign languages in-country offers poor financial ROI due to AI
“I think learning a foreign language in that country is extremely, it's not a good ROI from like, you probably won't make any money off of this, especially now with chat GPT.”
Petersen: Studies claiming income plateaus happiness cannot be replicated
“I don't believe these studies that say like, oh, like, you know, you stop. ... Stop improving your life at a certain point. I'm certain that that can't be replicated. You know, most, most of these psychology studies turn out to be not, there's a replication cr…”
Petersen: Top classroom negotiators struggle in real-world repeated business games
“You can track the people who are the best negotiators in a classroom environment or not the most successful because they're very good at extracting too much in a one-off negotiation, but that's not how life works. In life, there's repeat games. Like you gotta …”
Petersen: Tech media unfairly targets startup founders instead of incumbent mega-corporations
“All reporters play a very important function of like holding the powerful accountable, but like founders, you're not that power, but we're kind of suffering through like, you know, we're up against some very powerful forces in the world. Like we feel like we'r…”