Risk Assets

topic on 3 shows · 6 statements across 6 episodes

Capital Allocators All-In 20VC

6 statements about Risk Assets, every show

CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Held up
Papic: Trump will likely moderate tariffs to 5-10% rather than 40%
“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”
Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 25:00 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Rate cuts with moderate growth will reinflate risk assets
“As long as you have rate cuts and a reasonable inflation and reasonable growth, there's no reason to think that the, that people will not reinflate risk assets.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 12:26 E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Aitken: 5.5% Treasury yields mean investors are finally paid to wait
“For the first time in, let's say, roughly, 25 years, Ted, you and I, and everyone listening, we're paid not to have a view because money is not free anymore. If interest rates are zero, then we have to have a view all the time. Because any decision to step out…”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 28:13 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Risk assets will bottom out by early 2023
“And but I think that in terms of, you know, risk assets will bottom out by the end of this year, beginning of next year.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 23, 2022 ▶ 27:59 E97: SPAC updates, public/private market overview, Putin's end game & more
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Carney: 1% central bank rate hike increases risk discount rates 1.5–2.5%
“What tends to happen when interest rates increase is that there is a amplified impact on the interest rates of risk assets or the discount rates on risk assets. So if the bank rate goes up by one percentage point, the discount rate tends to go up by one and a …”
Mark Carney Jun 29, 2022 ▶ 14:03 20VC: The Memo: Bill Gurley, Doug Leone, Keith Rabois; Investing Lessons from Prior Busts, How Their Investor Psychology Changed, What Can Be Applied To Today's Market
20VC Insight
Carney: A 1% rate hike raises risk asset discount rates 1.5%-2.5%
“So if guilt rates go or the bank rate goes up by one percentage point, you tend, the discount rate tends to go up by one and a half to two and a half points, depending on where the asset is on the risk spectrum.”
Mark Carney Jan 10, 2022 ▶ 19:22 20VC: Former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney on Why "Only the Niche Will Survive" in Crypto, How Governments and Central Banks Retain Control in a World of Decentralised Finance & The Winners and Losers in Crypto Exchanges and NFTs

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