Green: Lead Edge Capital targets 95% LP gross dollar retention
“And so our number one KPI that we run this place by is what is our gross dollar retention for LPs? We want like 95% gross dollar retention because the only way you can get that is one, have good investment returns. And great client services.”
Lead Edge's 18 junior staff members contact 9,000 companies per year
“And the process for us starts with, you know, 18, 22, to twenty-four-year-olds that, you know, talk to about 9000 companies a year.”
Green: Lead Edge is completely structure-agnostic when investing in companies
“Now, when we find the company, we're then super creative. We'll buy 10%, 80%, LPs out of a twenty-year-old fund, buy employee, secondary, you know, fund somebody's CV. We don't care. We'll do anything.”
Lead Edge Capital has roughly 800 limited partners, 95% being executives
“Probably like 800. 95% by number are these executives, yeah.”
Lead Edge Capital has lost its entire investment on only one deal
“We've, I think we've only lost all of our money, like in one deal ever.”
Green: Lead Edge holds roughly 20 investments per fund
“We do not run funds with like a hundred, 115 companies in them, we have, we run funds with like 20 investments in them”
Green: 70% of Lead Edge's deployment is in secondaries and special situations
“70% is special sets or, like, secondary.”
Green: Deals meeting eight criteria do not outperform deals meeting five
“If we do like an eight criteria deal versus like a five criteria deal, there's like actually no correlation to like, it was a better deal.”
Green: Lead Edge tends to hire former athletes as analysts
“We tend to hire people that are, like, former athletes.”
Green: Lead Edge Capital Mandates and Tracks Handwritten Follow-Up Notes
“I've sent handwritten thank you notes every way I meet. Almost everybody. I meet, like, every entrepreneur, every company. Guess who also does now? The twenty-two-year-old analyst. And by the way, we track it and report on it.”
Mitchell Green spends 60% of his time managing limited partners
“I probably spend 60% of my time with LPs. Now, again, that could be getting somebody to help a company, though, too, or coordinating with the team of people with us, like, hey, let's figure out a way to get into Exxon. And then I would say a third of my, 25, 3…”
Mitchell Green: The AI CapEx bubble will end badly
“Overhyped, overfrothed and I believe this AI CapEx bubble will end badly.”
Mitchell Green predicts AI foundation models will commoditize
“Look, our fundament, my fundamental belief
Is that the models will commoditize.”
Mitchell Green: Stocks without earnings or EBITDA have no valuation floor
“If you don't have earnings or EBITDA, there is no floor in a lot of these things.”
Mitchell Green: Tech transformations require backing growth-focused management over margin-focused leadership
“I believe in any time you have big technological transformations, that you want the entrepreneur, you want the management team that is run by the company That, that is focused on growth.”
Mitchell Green: Heavily leveraged incumbents are the primary targets for disruption
“Where I think the biggest opportunity to disrupt incumbents today is Soft software, tech enabled services, any company, it actually can be a manufacturing company, it doesn't matter, any company with a bunch of leverage on it, because those companies don't hav…”
Green: Markets irrationally heed random online research over top tech leaders
“It's incredible, like, why don't, it's amazing that people are listening to some random research firm versus listening to people like Stan Druckenmiller, Howard Marks, Ken Griffin, Steve Cohen, like, Mark Benioff, people like Mark Zuckerberg you know, Jensen W…”
Mitchell Green: Companies will retrain workers displaced by AI
“A lot of these, like, companies will retrain people. They'll do different things. It's a, it's remarkable throughout history. There's been, like, lots of technological disruption over the last hundred years, and, like, people find new things.”
Mitchell Green: A good company and a good investment are fundamentally different
“Good investment and good company are two very fundamentally different things too. And you're trying to like get the union of both of them.”
Green: High 2020-2021 Valuations Destroyed Returns for Good Companies
“There are a lot of people that invested in good companies or great companies in twenty-twenty and twenty-twenty-one at really stupid prices and didn't make money.”
Green: Investors Will Still Hold Unsold 2012 Stakes in 2030
“At some point, I don't know if it's three years, or five years, or seven years, for sure. People are gonna wake up in 20, in 2030, in 2032, and realize it's, oh my god, they're still all in this stuff from 20 12 and 20 15.”
Mitchell Green: Secondary sales account for roughly a third of Lead Edge deals
“Probably a third of our deals have been secondary sales.”
Mitchell Green: Tech buyout firms boost EBITDA margins from 5% to 40%
“If I was them, like, I know that all these companies, they drive EBITDA margins from five percent to 40%.”
Mitchell Green: Multi-billion VC funds are insane and require hitting next Google
“I think it's insane. I think these funds are way too, and they, just do the math, the fund math on like how, they're clearly, you have to have the next open, you have to have the next Google, effectively, or the math doesn't work, I don't think.”
Mitchell Green: Doubling a $100B VC investment requires $25B in earnings
“And you invest in something that's worth, like, it's worth a hundred billion dollars. You're effectively saying to make a double with dilution, it's probably two hundred and fifty billion dollars. Like, that's making the bet it's gonna do twenty-five billion d…”
Green: AI infrastructure investing today mirrors website investing in 1997
“I think investing in AI infrastructure today is like investing in websites in 1997.”
Green: VC judgment comes from evaluating thousands of bad companies
“And you know how you know what a good company is over two years, talk to 10,000 bad companies.”
Green: Lead Edge would take 0.7x returns to exit slow-growth SaaS
“Yes, we have a prep so we would get our one X, but if you told me today I could take a .7 X just to get out of it, I would happily cut you. I would happily do it.”
Mitchell Green: The IPO market is fine and recent performance is strong
“The problem with the IPO market is actually totally fine. If you look at IPO performance of companies, they've actually done pretty well versus opening day prices.”
Green: LPs are a VC firm's most important customer
“Well I would tell you that we have two customers. Founders, but more importantly, LPs, because if you do not have LPs, you do not have a business.”
Green: Lead Edge Capital targets 97% gross LP dollar retention
“So like, we run our business trying to figure out how do we have 97%, how do we keep up 97% gross dollar retention, not net, gross, With LPs.”
Green: Good communication retains LPs through bad fund vintages
“By the way, without good performance, you can have none of it, but I can tell you that people, here's the thing though, people want the nice guy, the good guy, the person who communicates to win. So like, if you have a bad vintage or two bad vintage funds, the…”
Green: Only a few VCs can repeatedly back generational giants
“I put on one hand the amount of people that are capable of backing companies like Google's and Facebook's of the world, and doing it more than once. Like, it's a really, really, really small group. It sure as heck isn't me.”
Green: Private companies often present total contract value as revenue
“A lot of it comes down to like, there'll be like, oh, my revenues are this. You look at the chart, you start doing all the analysis and you're like, actually that was your total contract value.”
Green: Private companies frequently fudge gross profit numbers via COGS manipulation
“There's a lot of ways to fudge gross profit numbers and through cogs and all that kind of stuff.”
Green: Supports banning social media for teenagers under 16
“Yes, I think we should. I think it needs to be way highly regulated.”
Green: Sequoia, Kleiner, and Bessemer had little differentiation beyond check size
“And I didn't frankly think there was much difference between Bessemer and Sequoia and Kleiner at the time, and General Atlantic and TCV, other than some people wrote bigger checks and smaller checks.”
Green: Lead Edge Fund I allocated 25% to Alibaba at $12B valuation
“And we said to people, listen, I'm going to raise a fifty million dollar vehicle. And I'm going to put 25% of the fund in Alibaba at twelve billion valuation, roughly.”
Green: Lead Edge publicly shames analysts who fail to write thank-you notes
“I actually have a handwritten thank you note tracker that I get for every employee at the firm, and I assure you, if a twenty-two-year-old analyst wants to get called out in front of 85 people, I have no problem doing it.”
Green: Most investment funds provide awful information disclosure to limited partners
“I would rate most funds information disclosure as awful. Not bad. Awful.”
Green: VCs holding stock in 2021 cost LPs hundreds of billions
“I think the amount of money that private equity Growth equity, venture firms cost their investors by not selling in mid to late 21 is in the tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars.”