The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 348 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chen: Deep learning will outperform trained radiologists within five years
“It takes five years to train a radiologist, and in five years, deep learning will get better results than a trained radiologist, so we should stop training them right now.”
Kupor: Federal workforce will shrink by 300,000 employees due to DOGE
“We've done a lot of work over the course of this year, a lot of which was catalyzed by Elon and the Doge team. As a result, we expect probably that we'll end up with somewhere around 2.1 million employees at the end of the year, so roughly about a 300,000 redu…”
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Keith Rabois predicts multiple countries will make peace with Israel within months
“You're gonna see lots of countries You know, make peace explicitly with Israel, which is great. Whether they join the Abraham Accords directly or indirectly, it's all gonna happen in the next six months.”
Dolgov: Waymo will continue using LiDAR, radar, and cameras together
“So yeah, I think the trend, you know, for us that we'll, you know, using all three modalities just, you know, makes a lot of sense.”
Hicks: DoD aims to field thousands of autonomous systems within 24 months
“Replicator's goal has always been simple and straightforward, to field thousands of attributable autonomous systems in multiple domains within 18 to 24 months, and to prove ways to burn down risk and rapidly and safely overcome barriers to scaling.”
Amodei: AI training costs will hit $1B in 2024 and up to $10B in 2025
“I think that next year we're probably going to see from multiple players models on the order of one billion dollars, and in 2025 we're going to see models on the order of Several billion, I don't know, perhaps even ten billion dollars.”
Dixon: Sugar will be the biggest killer of this generation
“Sugar is the new smoking. It's going to you know, kill, it's going to be by far the biggest killer of this generation.”
Ashatosh: Azure and IBM will beat AWS in enterprise cloud within two years
“In fact, we predict that the number one enterprise cloud in the next two years is probably going to be Azure, and not AWS, just because they are sucking up a tremendous amount of footprint of applications. And number two actually might be IBM, and not AWS, as …”
Patrick Byrne predicts a 2008-level economic crisis within two to three years
“I also think there's going to be quite soon a big, in the next two or three years, a big disruption in our economy. I think in oh eight or worse is going to happen, and with each disruption, people will shift farther into online, and then it ratchets.”
Hearn: Reaching Bitcoin capacity limits will kick users out of the system
“At worst, things break quite badly, but even at best, even if things don't break, some users won't be able to use Bitcoin, right? They will be kicked out of the system, effectively. There won't be enough capacity to handle them.”
McMaster: Apple faces margin pressure and negligible emerging market share
“I believe over time, Apple's even going to have products. You know, problems, because they're not going to be able to sustain these margins, and in these markets where Android is dominant, Apple's market share will be negligible. Right? As these markets contin…”
Sinofsky predicts cars sold in 2019 are the last requiring human drivers
“If you, I look at the automobiles today, and I think that the ones that are being sold today are the very last cars that are going to basically require a driver.”
Paul Krugman predicts only one or two cryptocurrencies will survive
“There will not be 1600 cryptocurrencies out there. There will be one or two.”
Levine: Machine learning applications will execute at edge endpoints, not the cloud
“So the only way that we can look into an image or look into the massive amounts of data is with machine learning, and that machine learning, the algorithms and the applications employing machine learning will run at the end point. It's not going to be machine …”
Ludwig: Commercial driverless trucks are at most a few years away
“To be honest, it's not long. We're talking a few years and I think on the long end,”
Rowan: Apollo investment grade private products will offer daily pricing by June
“And so, we're starting with our investment grade private suite of products, and we will be daily estimated value by June 30.”
Isaacman: NASA targeting new SLS mission in 2027 and lunar landings in 2028
“We are standardizing the SLS rocket, increasing launch cadence from years to months. We're inserting a new mission in 20, 27 to buy down risk and increase confidence for lunar landing attempts in 20, 28.”
Blania: Social platforms will fail attempting phone face biometrics for human verification
“My guess is over the next couple months, we will see things like these platforms trying to use things like face biometrics on the phone, which, you know, I know it will break, so it's fine, but I think we'll go through that cycle now.”
Evans: On-device AI models will fail as capability gains outpace compression
“Will we have small models running on devices? No, because the small models, the capabilities are moving too fast for the small models to shrink the small model onto the device.”
Epoch AI: Anthropic and Amazon are building the first gigawatt data center
“For instance, we learned that the most likely candidate to have the first gigawatt scale data center is Anthropic, which would not have been my pick but Anthropic Amazon's New Carlisle Project Rainier development seems on track to come online in January follow…”
Andreessen: Paul Thomas Anderson's new Leonardo DiCaprio film will lose $120M
“So anyway, it, it's gonna do reasonably well because, you know, because it has Leo, but it's still gonna lose like a hundred, hundred and twenty million dollars are, you know, the estimates that I'm hearing, which is, you know, a pretty, pretty big loss you kn…”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow non-filmmakers to produce full feature films
“In this last couple weeks with the new version of Sora and a lot of these other new things that are coming out, AI is going to make a whole new kind of filmmaker possible to exist for the first time, which is the filmmaker with no visual skill, right, or acces…”
Patel: AWS year-over-year revenue growth will re-accelerate above 20%
“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”
Patel: OpenAI will soon monetize free users via shopping affiliate fees
“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”
Yahya: Federal stablecoin regulation will likely pass in 2025
“We strongly believe it likely, it'll likely happen this year.”
Dixon: People will make AI-generated feature films within two years
“In two years, you'll have people making feature-length films.”
Schmidt: Decentralized training of 400B parameter AI models is solvable by 2025
“I think it still is, it would still be, you know, like a next year sort of environment thing that we would have to do. There are some scaling problems, or not scaling problems, but technical things about how you shard the model, because at that point you get t…”
Plaid CEO: CFPB's open banking rules will face widespread lawsuits
“I'm certain it's gonna be sued by, like, I don't know, a gajillion different companies. I know the banks, the big banks want to sue it, the small banks want to sue it, like a bunch of fintechs want to, it's all, all, all over.”
China is actively investing in and will deploy autonomous weapons
“We know that China is, you know, investing in similar technologies. We know they're going to move out on it,”
Hicks: DoD is on track to meet August 2025 Replicator target
“I'm confident we're doing everything on track to get there. We're gonna meet that goal.”
Sramek: California Forever city is designed for up to 400,000 residents
“And then imagine that it was a city for up to 400,000 people that was entitled and approved at once, and so you knew that for the next you knew that for the next 30 years, if this office is going to work and you'll be able to hire talent there, there'll be eno…”
Cuban: Cost Plus Drugs will publish all network and operational data
“We'll be publishing everything we do. And so you'll be able to copy what we do and use the same networks, et cetera.”
Gallagher: TikTok will not go public in US under ByteDance ownership
“If you are invested in ByteDance, I would assume you want TikTok to go public in America. Ah, that's not gonna happen under the current ownership structure.”
Andreessen: AI detection software in schools will fail and falsely accuse students
“There are various attempts by companies to do like AI detectors now. You know, was this text written by AI and schools are actually starting to use that. And I think we can definitively, that will not work. Yeah. So what we can tell, there's already been cases…”
Andreessen: AI will allow actors to scan themselves into 3D environments
“These systems and all the variations that are coming up you know, the capabilities are going to become available over the next few years, including, you know, rendering video, you know, we're going to get to the point now where like, for example, an actor is g…”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow every screenplay to be rendered as video
“Most, look, oh, look, most people who write a Hollywood screenplay never see it produced. They never see it on screen. Right. And now all of a sudden, like all of those screenplays could be produced. Right. And turned into, you know, maybe not a movie that's c…”
Anthropic plans to formalize a safe scaling framework with capability checkpoints
“One broad way that we've been thinking about it from the beginning and are probably going to work more on formalizing it over the coming months and years is this idea of sort of safe scaling or checkpointing. So there could be this kind of alternating step whe…”
Aviation could account for 50% of global CO2 emissions by 2050
“But our own industry projections are that by 20 50, that's going to be anywhere up to 50% of all CO two emissions everywhere.”
Andreessen: Screenwriters will use AI to render full movies within years
“What's going to happen is they're going to use AI to be better writers and to write a lot more material. And by the way, if you're a Hollywood screenwriter, like all of a sudden, you're going to be able to use AI at some point in the next few years to actually…”
Diamandis: XPRIZE competition aims to reverse human biological age by 20 years
“My biggest area right now is reinventing, disrupting healthcare a health span XPRIZE reverse your biological age or your functional age by 20 years, right?”
Bovell: AI will depress wages in modeling and programming
“We're going to see this across the board with AI. It's going to put downward pressure on a lot of different wages from modeling to programming, but that's where it becomes a little bit challenging.”
Hefets: US home prices will decline 10% to 15% by Q1 2023
“Our view at Divi is that we're gonna start to see heading into Q-one year-on-year declines in home prices across Economist. That is likely to be somewhere around 10 to 15% year-on-year home price declines.”
Hefets: The housing downturn will wipe out gains from 2020 to 2022
“What I do think is that we are going to wipe out some of the gains that were made in the last two to three years.”
Hefets: Housing downturn will not be as extreme as 2008 crisis
“So I don't think that we're going to see something as extreme as the, that last housing crisis.”
Andreessen: Patients presenting GPT query results will force doctors to adopt AI
“And by the way, patients using GPT, if it hasn't started, it's going to start imminently. So, so, so, so the patients are going to show up with the results of GPT queries, and the doctors are going to have to respond to that, and so they're going to end up bei…”
Stephenson: Lamina1 will require node operators to purchase verified carbon credits
“The system's going to be designed in such a way that in order to participate, to operate a node, you need to demonstrate that you've acquired, you've bought a certain number of carbon credits from a legitimate company”
Fielding: Privateer plans to offer space tracking tools for free
“We aim to democratize the space situational awareness market. By bringing these tools to humankind for free, by enabling and empowering the community so that we have a single source of truth and knowledge, and we're not aiming to own it.”