The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 249 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Levie: Construction workers are far more mobile than tech workers
“I think we think of, you know, the tech industry as being very mobile. Well, it turns out construction workers are actually far more mobile than those of us in the tech industry.”
Levine: LiDAR sensor costs will eventually fall to 50 cents
“The first LiDAR for a Google car was 75,000 dollars. Now LIDAR is sub 500 dollars, and I'll bet you, and this is just like, there are no self-driving cars out there. I bet you it goes to 50 cents in the not-too-distant future.”
Evans predicts Level 5 autonomous vehicles are 5 to 10 years away
“And that level five is probably five to 10 years away with the emphasis on 10 years, depending on who you talk to.”
Kha predicts top venture outcomes will reach $100B with OpenAI and Anthropic
“Soon to be probably a hundred billion by the time Anthropic and then OpenAI came, come out.”
Kha: Venture capital exits now far exceed private equity exits
“Exits in venture now way exceed private equity.”
Bancel: Moderna's Cancer Therapy Will Be Approved via Process BLA
“As you mentioned, CAR-T, CAR-T was also approved in the same way as we believe Intesmiran will be, which is as a process BLA not a product BLA.”
All Incremental Global Internet Capacity Will Come From Space
“And any incremental internet capacity, like, is not going to be built in a traditional sense on, it's going to come from space.”
Radiant will achieve reactor criticality and 700°C operations by 2026
“Since 2020, we've been on target for going there by 20, 26, and then we'll go critical. The system is designed to go to over 700 degrees Celsius, and then we'll run for 150 hours continuously.”
Ben Horowitz: a16z will not back third-party regional affiliate funds
“We're not raising money for somebody who's not part of our firm, our culture, our mission, and having them go run a play. That, that, that's just not us.”
Evans: Microsoft, Meta, and Google spending over 50% of revenue on CapEx
“Microsoft, Meta, and Google are all on, in line to spend over 50% of revenue on CapEx this year.”
Northwood designs ground antennas to deploy on dirt without concrete foundations
“We need our antennas to fit in a standard shipping container that can go on a commercial United Airlines flight. And So it gets there the same day. We need our system to be able to fork off of that shipping container and land on a patch of dirt with no concret…”
Huberman: Study shows stimulants improve focus about as well as good sleep
“Very interesting paper came out recently from WashU showing that Adderall, it wasn't really Adderall specifically, but Ritalin and other stimulants seem to improve focus about as well as a good night's sleep.”
George: Three Mile Island nuclear plant will be powered back up
“I think Three Mile Island's gonna get powered back up.”
George: Only 5% of public software companies forecast over 25% growth
“Something like five percent of software and internet public companies are forecasting 25% plus next 12 months growth. So, 95% of the public market universe in software and internet is growing less than 25%.”
Billions of people will learn to delegate to machine assistants
“It's gonna become ubiquitous. People are, there's gonna be billions of people learning to delegate to a machine assistant”
Rao: AI will require 400 GW of new power capacity over 10 years
“By some estimates, we need 400 gigawatts additional capacity over the next 10 years. To power the demand for AI.”
Rao: TSMC will partner with Unconventional AI for chip manufacturing
“TSMC is absolutely going to be a partner forward, you know, met with them recently and, you know, we want to work closely with them to make sure we get what we need, get fast turnaround times to prototype and all of that.”
Rao: Unconventional AI's first prototype will be the largest analog chip ever
“Like when we build this chip, our first prototype, it's going to be probably one of the larger, maybe the largest analog chip people have ever built, which is kind of weird.”
Fraden: Enterprise employees won't see work hours halved over next two years
“So I'm not sure I really buy in the next couple of years, you will see people in large companies actually just working half as much”
Shear: Softmax is building multi-agent RL simulations for alignment
“So that's our goal. It's like big multi-agent reinforcement learning simulations, which create a surrogate model for alignment.”
Hershberg: Clinical research market consolidated into 12 primary providers
“So it actually turns out that there's been this enormous consolidation of the clinical research organization market that's come down to about a dozen providers who have each done roughly 40 acquisitions across 30 years.”
Sacks: US Senate will pass the Clarity Act crypto bill
“I think that we will get the Clarity Act done. Like you mentioned, it passed the House with about 300 votes, about 78 Democrats. So it was substantially bipartisan. I think it will ultimately where it's now going through the Senate. I think it will ultimately …”
Rabois: Elon Musk will not fund non-conservative political parties
“Well, I don't know if he'll get back into politics, but he's not gonna fund non-conservative parties. Like, I think that's dead.”
Barbaccia: US government plans a unified citizen portal for benefits and taxes
“So we're thinking about how we could responsibly implement a consent-based, citizen-centric data sharing between agencies which would lead to a portal you could go to and see everything in one place, my benefits information, my tax return status, when my passp…”
Patel: AI end market will far exceed total semiconductor market
“The end market of AI is going to be way larger than the end market of semiconductors and equipment.”
Patel: NVIDIA will accumulate hundreds of billions in cash balance
“He's gonna have hundreds of billions of dollars of cash on his balance sheet.”
Hsu: Arc Institute will soon generate one billion perturbed single cells
“And at ARC in the next, you know, kind of end, like, I don't know, relatively short amount of time, we're going to generate a billion perturbed single cells, right?”
Mark Cuban predicts US healthcare spending share of the economy will increase
“It'll go higher, but because we're going to get some amazing treatments. Because now you get, you know, single treatment cures that might cost three million dollars. That, you know, that jacks up the total cost.”
Song: EliseAI aims to enable fully autonomous buildings with zero human management
“Our goal is to enable fully autonomous buildings. So that means an entire portfolio has the ability to run core operations without requiring human intervention at all.”
Stoyanov: Banning technology in an industry never leads to lower consumer costs
“I cannot think of a single example where, you know, technology was banned and then costs went down. I think that just never happens.”
Cass: High tariffs and protectionism built historic US industry
“America had very high tariffs and built its domestic industry behind a wall of protectionism. America aggressively restricted immigration. America had quite aggressive industrial policy and so on and so forth.”
Mariana Minerals aims to build 10 mineral projects in 10 years
“You know, we want to build 10 projects in 10 years. Those projects will be an increasing scale over time.”
Neumann: Flow will sell five buildings while retaining long-term management
“We will sell our five buildings. We will sell our first asset in a month and we'll keep a management deal for the unforeseeable future.”
Dixon: SpaceX's Starlink uses stablecoins for cross-border money transfers
“SpaceX, like Starlink is like, uses it to move money from one country to another”
Wolf: Only one of the top 100 public software companies is in healthcare
“Of the hundred largest public software companies, one is a healthcare and life science company”
Burgum: China added 100 gigawatts of coal power in 12 months
“30% of the world's electricity today comes from coal. 60% of China comes from coal. China's added close to a hundred gigawatts of coal in the last 12 months.”
Vance: US builds only five commercial ships per year
“Now, we build about five commercial ships across an entire year in the United States of America. And as a result, the United States today accounts for .one percent. One-tenth of one percent of global shipbuilding.”
Kumar: Sesame is actively developing smart glasses for its AI companions
“We mentioned on the website and we mentioned some of our launch content that we are working towards glasses as a form factor for Companions, or kind of this companion interface”
Ayrey: Data scientists leak API keys more frequently than SREs
“Data scientists leak out API keys and passwords more often than site reliability engineers.”
Midha: Developing a US alternative to ASML will take over 10 years
“Is it feasible for the U.S. To say we're gonna build our own ASML like tomorrow? No. I mean, it's just gonna take like 10 plus years, right? EUV lithography just takes a really long time.”
Andrusko: Accounting will shift from billable hours to fixed-fee models
“We think this is like a short-term hurdle. We do think that the way this market will trend over time is more towards a fixed fee engagement. And that just the competitive pressures of supply and demand will make it such that if you can deliver the same work pr…”
Pande: 80% of late-stage drug failures stem from flawed biology
“What is it, like, 80% of drugs fail in phase two or three in trials, and that's not because it's toxic, it's because we screwed up the biology.”
Andreessen: GPT-2 scale AI models will run on smartphones within five years
“I think within five years, you're going to have models of this size on your phone.”
Andreessen: Local hardware devices like doorknobs will run onboard LLMs
“There's just gonna be such a giant number of like local use cases. Like, you know, your doorknob is gonna have an LLM in it that's gonna control whether or not people get through the door, right?”
Bernauer: Radiant targets 2026 field demonstration for microreactor
“Our timeline has not changed since we started the company in twenty-twenty. We want to do a field demonstration in twenty-twenty-six.”
Mather: Habitable Worlds Observatory will directly image Earth-like planets
“And the next one we're going to build is called Habitable Worlds Observatory. And so when we do that, we'll be able to see an image with a little dot next to the other Big dot, and it'll be an Earth-like object around a star like the Sun”
Koller: Insitro runs genome-wide CRISPR screens in two weeks
“When they're all in a pool, you eliminate all of those artifacts, and all of a sudden you have the ability to measure a genome-wide CRISPR screen, basically, so, 20,000 genes in the genome, all modifying the same cellular background in the same dish with a dif…”