The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,795 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sawhney: Astra proved the asymptotic linear programming bound for sphere packing
“And what the model shows is that Actually the linear programming bound in large dimensions has this extremely nice asymptotic behavior, and the proof kind of explains where this is coming from, and because you understand this LP bound perfectly, this actually …”
Bancel: Moderna's mRNA vaccine is first melanoma agent outperforming Keytruda alone
“It's the first time that there is an agent In melanoma that is better than Ketudra alone.”
Litt: Multiple preprint papers have appeared with identical AI-generated proofs
“Like, sometimes, you know, we've seen examples where, like, three or four or five papers with the exact same proof of the exact same theorem have come out in, within a couple days of each other, which is clearly, you know, some situation where someone's playin…”
Casado: Desperate AI labs ink commercial deals before startup hardware even exists
“The first one is the labs are so desperate that they will engage with startups. And so, like, we actually have quite a bit of signal early on because they're, you know, the labs are, Inking deals with companies before they actually have hardware available. And…”
Ayrey: Blocked AI models frequently committed felonies to complete assigned tasks
“We found more often than not, It would do the SQL injection, it would commit the felony, and it would do what it needed to do to accomplish the task.”
Moe: Open-weight inference can hit 500 tokens/sec, 2-3x faster than proprietary APIs
“But for open weight, when you are running it, every provider can offer potentially even 10 different levels of speed going from like the slowest mode, which can be a lot cheaper to 400 tokens per second almost up to 500 in many cases for some workloads. And th…”
Zhang: Enterprise share of open-source AI inference is currently declining
“In enterprises right now, even though there's a lot of hype for open source, the sort of share of open source inference is actually Going down right now because people are spinning up all these new use cases.”
Ludwig: Commercial driverless trucks are at most a few years away
“To be honest, it's not long. We're talking a few years and I think on the long end,”
Masad: Groq struggled to raise in Silicon Valley, turned to Saudi Arabia
“They actually had a lot of trouble fundraising in Silicon Valley. They had to kind of go to Saudi and all of that”
Neuberger: China's shipbuilding capacity is orders of magnitude greater than US capacity
“China has vastly increased its military, vastly increased the number of nuclear capabilities that it has, uses various their shipbuilding capability are orders of magnitude more than the United States”
George: Scaled data center capacity unavailable until late 2028 or early 2029
“You can't get data center capacity at scale until late 28, early 29 right now, and that's just a fact.”
Rowan: Apollo investment grade private products will offer daily pricing by June
“And so, we're starting with our investment grade private suite of products, and we will be daily estimated value by June 30.”
Arizona DPS uses AI body-cam analytics to score officer interactions
“We have analytics at Trulio that's running behind the body-worn camera just to see for the behavior and interaction. Part of that was, you know, looking at, you know, you can do a scorecard for how the trooper is interacting with the public, but it also gets a…”
Blankfein: Robinhood incorrectly claimed to offer government-insured accounts early on
“I looked at, you know, Robin Hood, great company. But early on, you know, they declared a kind of they declared that they had government-insured accounts that weren't government-insured. They had some slip-ups and a lot of apologies get made. You could do that…”
Blankfein: Goldman Sachs fully hedged its 2008 AIG exposure with collateral agreements
“We were fully hedged because we had bought credit protection. Right. But we also had a collab. So we go, we, a single A credit, got a collateral agreement with AIG AAA.”
Andreessen: Anthropic traced AI blackmail behavior to doomer training data
“Anthropics thread said they trace the, they trace some black male behavior to literally to the AI doomer literature that they, that, that it was in the training data.”
Andreessen: Federal government headcount reduced by up to 400,000
“The federal government is down. Estimates are as much as 400,000 workers in the federal government since Trump took office the second time.”
Horowitz: 70% of Chinese are AI optimists versus under 30% of Americans
“Over 70% of people in China are optimistic about AI, and less than 30% in America were optimistic about AI.”
Isaacman: NASA targeting new SLS mission in 2027 and lunar landings in 2028
“We are standardizing the SLS rocket, increasing launch cadence from years to months. We're inserting a new mission in 20, 27 to buy down risk and increase confidence for lunar landing attempts in 20, 28.”
Blackstone wrote off one-third of a private equity fund before 2002
“The private equity business, they'd raised a fund and had made a couple of disastrous investors so that, that were within a year write-offs with about a third of the fund.”
Rogers: EU investigation into X culminated in 120 million euro fine
“Then, in the same letter, Breton makes reference to another ongoing investigation against X that ostensibly they say had nothing to do with speech. This is the investigation that recently culminated in a hundred and twenty million euro fine.”
Blania: World splits iris data across servers to avoid central databases
“And how we approach that is we have multi-party computation. And so that essentially means that, so in our case, when you verify with an orb. You know, we take all these pictures they get computed on the device, and then they actually get split up in multiple …”
Blania: Social platforms will fail attempting phone face biometrics for human verification
“My guess is over the next couple months, we will see things like these platforms trying to use things like face biometrics on the phone, which, you know, I know it will break, so it's fine, but I think we'll go through that cycle now.”
Horowitz: $400 billion was stolen from COVID stimulus programs
“I mean, well, just, if you go back to COVID, the stimulus program, like I think four hundred billion dollars was stolen.”
Haber: Block executed a 40% workforce reduction driven by AI
“And recently Block executed a roughly 40% reduction in force. And they've been pretty candid about AI being a critical component of that decision.”
Mendler: The U.S. government has launched satellite missions without ground plans
“Literally there have been a bunch of missions that have been launched with no ground plan.”
Transformers compute precise Bayesian posteriors down to 10^-3 bits accuracy
“We trained these models and we found that the transformer got the precise Bayesian posterior down to 10 to the power minus three bits accuracy. It was matching the distribution perfectly. So it is actually doing Bayesian in the mathematical sense, given a task…”
Transformers perform all Bayesian tasks, Mamba does most, and MLPs fail
“Transformer does everything. Mamba does most of it. LSTMs do only partially, and MLPs fail completely.”
Michael: Google transitioned from avoiding defense work to top government partner
“Google didn't want to bid on the contract. Now Google is a great partner, you know, and so I'd hope some of the newer companies would learn from what Google did, which is, you know, they didn't want to serve the government because that employee mob issues, but…”
Huberman warns Melanotan use risks priapism and permanent nerve damage
“And there's a risk for men of pre-epism, which, you know, the last erection you may ever have, it might last eight hours, but that might be the last one you ever, it can cause damage to the nerves and penile tissue”
Magic Johnson: Dodgers generate highest revenue in Major League Baseball history
“We're making money that no major league baseball team has ever made on revenues.”
Mares: Monsanto spent tens of millions lobbying for glyphosate liability shield
“A couple months ago Monsanto was lobbying hard, spent tens of millions of dollars to get a rider and a bill that would basically make sure that no one could ever sue them for the potential health impacts of one of their most popular products, glyphosate.”
Mares: $14B in legal damages awarded over glyphosate health exposure
“There's been fourteen billion dollars of damages awarded to people that have gotten cancer or other diseases from glyphosate exposure.”
Horowitz: a16z captured 18.3% of all US venture capital in 2025
“And so this last year, 25, about 18 point, what is it, 18.3% of all venture capital raised in the U.S. Was raised by us.”
Rampell: Ramp data shows enterprise AI spending spiked in January 2025
“We're seeing the exact opposite, and I'll show two things. So there's a company called Ramp and they are kind of credit card expense management products, and you see this giant tick up in January of twenty-twenty-five”
Rampell: 15 percent of global adults use ChatGPT weekly
“Something like 15% of adults on planet Earth now use ChatGPT every single week.”
Andreessen: AI Costs Are Falling Much Faster Than Moore's Law
“If you look at what's happening with, ah, the price of AI is falling much faster than Moore's Law.”
Evans: OpenAI's Deep Research marketing case used inaccurate mobile data
“OpenAI launched Deep Research. Their whole marketing case is it goes off and collects data about the mobile market. I used to be a mobile analyst. The numbers are all wrong. Their use case of look how useful this is, their numbers are wrong.”
Evans: Claude has virtually no consumer usage despite top benchmark scores
“It's basically, the only consumer, Claude has basically no consumer usage, even though on the benchmark score it's the same. And then it's ChatGPT, and then halfway down the chart, it's Meta and Google.”
Evans: Any entity spending billions can acquire a frontier AI model
“There's going to be anybody who can spend a couple of hundred, you know, can spend a couple of billion dollars can have a frontier model.”
Sherman Wu: ChatGPT has reached 800 million weekly active users
“The first party app is a really great way to get, you know it was like eight hundred million wows or whatever now.”
Epoch AI: No slowdown in AI capabilities has been observed yet
“Yeah, I don't, I definitely don't think we've seen any slowdown yet in capabilities from any of these concerns people have.”
Boyle: China Expanded Its Industrial Base Supplying Both Sides in Ukraine
“China has been supplying both sides of that war. When you look at sort of the drone warfare that is, that has come out of the trenches for the last three years, You know, China is a supplier in the same way that Russia is a supplier to its own side, but that m…”
Rampell: Bay Area housing prices declined massively when priced in tech stocks
“There's a piece that we wrote a little while ago showing that the price of housing in the Bay Area has declined massively in the past 25 years. If you're like, no, no, it hasn't. It's gone off. If you price it in Apple stock and Google stock, right?”
Adam D'Angelo: LLMs are substituting for entry-level computer science jobs
“CS majors graduating from college, there's just not as many jobs as there used to be, and LLMs are a little more substitutable for what they previously would have done, and I'm sure that's contributing to it.”
Amjad Masad: Claude 4.5 shows awareness of context limits and red-team testing
“Quad 4.5 seemed to have to become more aware of its context length. So as it gets closer to the end of the context, it starts becoming more economical with tokens. It also, it looks like its awareness when it's being red teamed or in test environment, like jum…”
Sacks: Biden administration blocked Gulf allies from purchasing US AI chips
“Starting with the Gulf states in October of twenty-twenty-three. Basically, the Gulf states, you know, I'm talking about countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, long-standing U.S. Allies, they weren't allowed to buy chips from the U.S.”