The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18,204 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel advised Intel board member Lip-Bu Tan to fire an executive
“I explicitly told Lip Bhutan. He had never talked to the guy because it was like four layers down. The company has like absurd amounts of hierarchy. It's like four layers down. He goes and talks to the guy and he's out, right?”
Patel: Intel faces bankruptcy without massive cash infusion or 50% layoffs
“Intel is literally gonna go bankrupt if they don't have a big cash infusion, or they lay off, like, half the company, right?”
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will be the world's largest industry within a decade
“Like, the general purpose robotics Thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to be the biggest indu…”
Balaji Srinivasan: Journalism is the non-consensual invasion of privacy for profit
“So journalism, as the non-consensual invasion of privacy for profit, really captures what it is these critters do.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Media claims positive influence while denying negative societal impacts
“When it comes publisher time, they will admit that their stories led to something. But when it comes BLM time, they deny that their stories led to America, you know, half America getting burned down. So it's a one-way ratchet where they take all the credit and…”
Balaji Srinivasan: Musk's Twitter acquisition liberated Meta and YouTube from censorship
“X-Day was also the liberation of Meta and liberation of YouTube, right? All the countries that these racial fanatics at the NYT had occupied, right? All the networks they had occupied. That was like, you know how, like, the Nazi empire was at, like, its peak, …”
Balaji Srinivasan: San Francisco homeless NGOs profit from rising homelessness and addiction
“The homeless industrial complex, so that shows that the NGOs, as their budget rises, the homeless population rises with it. They're basically paid to get people addicted to drugs.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Cutting USAID funding destroys the Democratic institution business model
“Really, what's happening is the cutoff of USAID is rolling up Blue Empire, so it's killing the blue business model.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Democrats destroyed democracy in California and created a one-party state
“In California, elections are held, but the party always wins, exactly like China. Okay, Democrats destroyed democracy in California.”
Horowitz: Anthony Fauci is a sociopath completely divorced from the truth
“I think Fauci, you know, whether you like him or not, he is, I think he's, he, he's a bit of a sociopath. I mean, he is completely divorced from the truth. And he feels no guilt about it. The, you know, he never felt any guilt about the whole AIDS thing, despi…”
Roy Lee: Replace marketing heads with fewer than 100k social followers
“If any company in the world has a marketing team and the head of marketing does not have a 100,000, at least a 100,000 followers. Like, you need to replace them. Like the game has changed.”
U.S. military can no longer move assets domestically uncontested
“In this age of contested logistics with hypersonic missiles and cyber and space, you know, threats, our ability not just to operate abroad, but just to be able to leave our own ports and to be able to move rail and everything uncontested no longer exists. It p…”
Horowitz: Gensler and Warren refused to meet with a16z on crypto policy
“They didn't, ah, even say anything out loud, but they would not take a meeting with us, like, you know, none of the people in charge of those agencies, Gary Gensler, wouldn't meet with us, Elizabeth Warren, wouldn't meet with, like, nobody to even hear why we …”
Sivulka: AI agents will contribute over 50% of global GDP within a decade
“One of my big predictions is that over 50% of the global GDP will be contributed by AI agents sometime in the next decade.”
Casado: US AI export controls failed; regulation is sole obstacle to winning
“China is a lot of very smart people. They're incredibly capable. They're great researchers. They can build stuff as great as well as we can, and they can open source it. We did not enable them. They do this even with export controls on chips. Right? So there's…”
Andreessen: EA doomers and dark money spent years infiltrating Washington on AI
“The doomers you know, the sort of doomers, the EA people, the sort of billionaire dark, dark shadowy money billionaires sort of playing, playing, playing in the, in, in this area trying to do various kind of nefarious things you know, had actually infiltrated …”
Andreessen: Chinese manufacturer DJI is US Defense Department's primary drone supplier
“DJI is the most widely used drone today by many, many large, you know, American customers, including the United States Department of Defense. Right. The DOD's primary drone supplier is DJI.”
Horowitz: SEC aims to destroy crypto industry rather than protect consumers
“The SEC has been against that because they're not really for protecting consumers. They're you know, just for wrecking the industry.”
Horowitz: The SEC has sued over 30 a16z portfolio companies
“So they've sued, I think, over 30 of our companies.”
Andreessen: White House officials claimed they could classify math to control AI
“And literally this was, this is verbatim. This is we did, we classified a whole entire areas of physics in the nuclear era and made them state secret. Like, of the, like, theoretical physics, science physics. We classified them and made them state secrets and …”
Andreessen: Venture capital will end under Biden's proposed unrealized gains tax
“And then number two, venture capital just ends. It's just over. Like firms like ours just like don't exist.”
Horowitz: Excusing October 7th violence reflects a return to tribal morality
“You can kind of see some of that tribalism coming back. Back in America where people like, well, you know, it's kind of a race. Well, we see it a lot right now in the Israel-Palestinian conflict where they think there's a certain set of people that say, oh, Oc…”
Horowitz: Google and Microsoft use safety rhetoric to lobby against open-source AI
“And they do it like the really kind of nasty thing is they claim, oh, it's for safety. You know, we've created an alien that we can't control, but we're not going to stop working on it. We're going to keep building it as fast as we can. And we're going to buy …”
Horowitz: AI economic value will accrue to tools, not base models
“The actual layer where the value is gonna crew is gonna be like tools, orchestration, that kind of thing, because you can just plug in whatever the best model is at the time. Whereas the models are gonna be competing, you know, in a death battle with each othe…”
Andreessen: Corporate HR parallel control structures mirror Soviet governance
“I do think we, I would say, big companies, large institutions have backed into a system that actually is very reminiscent of how the Soviets used to run things with respect to this kind of parallel control structure.”
Andreessen: The EU is determined to place blanket bans on capitalism
“The EU seems absolutely determined to ban everything to sort of put a blanket ban on capitalism and within that ban AI and ban energy.”
Gallagher: Hundreds of billions in US capital fund Chinese military tech
“We have trillions, billions, probably hundreds of billions of dollars, American dollars that are flowing into Chinese technology and military companies that are building things like aircraft carriers, artillery shells, fighter jets, things that are designed to…”
Horowitz: Coercing banks to debank legal industries mirrors fascist operational methods
“This is exactly how fascism worked. This is how Nazi Germany worked. They use private corporations to kind of confiscate people's stuff and you know, do these kinds of techniques to them.”
Horowitz: 50 years of affirmative action failed to help African Americans
“I think, look, I think it's clearly not working also in the, yeah, I mean, they were there, you know, with the kind of ruling on affirmative action, there were so many studies that showed that It didn't actually help African-Americans. 50 years, you know, forg…”
Horowitz: Rejecting Roland Fryer's police research led to a spike in murders
“What happened subsequently is his recommendation or his kind of ideas were not taken by society. What was taken were people who were kind of, who did far worse or no research. And, but were experts and, you know, kind of the result was the defund the police mo…”
Robbins: SSRI antidepressant medications do not work
“They don't work, and yet we still sell them for some reason.”
Robbins: Stanford study found his program eliminated depression in 100% of participants
“100% of the people that they put through this program after six weeks had zero expressions of depression.”
Andreessen: Strongly supports the federal execution of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg
“Anyway, I am strongly pro the execution of the Rosenbergs.”
Flanagan: The AI platform shift favors incumbents over standalone point solutions
“And we've seen like AI may be one of the few platform shifts that actually skews towards the monopolies and conglomerates versus like these individual Companies who just get sucked up and there are features of these existing platforms that get kind of skews to…”
State bar association threatened DoNotPay with prosecution over AI lawyer
“Another state bar association actually threatened us. And they said that if you do it, it's against the rules and we'll prosecute you for unauthorized practice of law.”
Luckey: U.S. Suffers Severe Disadvantages in Almost All Simulated China War Games
“And the result of this is that today, in almost every war game that the United States simulates against China or their proxies, the United States, ah, if we don't lose, certainly end up in a very, very bad situation.”
Power: U.S. military-industrial readiness is actually a 3 out of 10
“It's a lethality mirage and a lethality mirage is basically, you know, everyone else's impression of you is that you are a 10 out of 10 lethal. So they absolutely not going to fuck with you. And then maybe you lose one small conflict and someone goes, well, ho…”
Power: U.S. would take 5 years to rebuild exhausted ballistics inventory
“But if we have one conflict with China where we expand most of our ballistics inventory, We might not be able to remake it for like five years. Then we're basically standing around, you know, with our hands tied behind our backs.”
Chris Power claims 90% of US solar panels use Chinese slave labor
“90% of the solar panels in the country are being made in China by basically slave labor where millions of minority and immigrant women are being chemically castrated every year and forced into servitude.”
Balaji Srinivasan: A COVID-19 vaccine could have been deployed in one week
“This is actually at the beginning of the pandemic, by the way, we could have had a vaccine in a week. Why? Because mRNA vaccines could be printed out. All that time over those nine months was not spent, I mean, some of it was spent manufacturing or whatever, b…”
Balaji Srinivasan: Tech journalists act as hitmen for legacy inherited wealth
“A lot of these tech journalists are basically employees of some east coast nepotist Who's inherited millions of dollars and or a newspaper and is funding their whole operation. So they're meritless nepotous and or employees thereof who are attacking the self-m…”
Strange: Nearly every company will become a financial services company
“And that's because in the not too distant future, nearly every company will be a financial services company and get a significant portion of their revenue from financial services.”
Dapper Dan: Gucci copied his 1980s Diane Dixon jacket design
“Gucci created this jacket that I created in the eighties for Diane Dixon.”
Gil: Half of private unicorns are not worth $1 billion
“I would posit that about half of the unicorns are not worth a billion dollars or more. In other words, 50% of the companies that are valued in the private markets as being worth more than a billion shouldn't be worth more than a billion.”
Caplan: Schools should replace credentialed teachers with enthusiastic young non-graduates
“So, basically, it seems like we'd go and replace a lot of teachers from, you know, better schools, and with master's degrees, and with more experience, with just enthusiastic, fun, young teachers. You know, maybe people haven't even finished high school.”
Caplan: The ideal educational model is complete separation of school and state
“I think the best would be separation of school and state. And just get government out of education entirely.”
Sinclair: Metformin and NAD boosters reduced calculated biological age from 57 to 31
“I took metformin, Kristen mentioned, which is a diabetes drug. I took another molecule that we've worked on called, it raises NAD, we call them NAD boosters, and I saw that my bio-age, according to this algorithm, went down to 31.4 from 57 point something, and…”