why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Headless AI agents will scale to 1,000x human users
“Where again, you were normally constrained by the number of people on these platforms, but now the headless user can be, you know, a hundred or a thousand X the scale of those human users.”
Insight
George: AI Startups Need UI, Data, and Pricing Shifts to Beat SaaS Giants
“I think for startups to win, I think you need all three and that's just in the head-to-head stuff.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Rampell: An AI-native startup will build a better CRM and displace Salesforce
“Somebody is going to out Salesforce, Salesforce, not for the hostages that they have, but is going to build the greenfield version of Salesforce because how is that possible? Everybody hates using Salesforce. There's a new company that's going to do this bette…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: Salesforce risks losing revenue or 10x-ing depending on AI transition
“So that's why, you know, Salesforce, it's a two hundred billion dollar plus public company. If they don't do this right, they could lose all of their revenue or most of it. If they do it really well, they can 10 X the revenue.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rachleff: Apple, Google, and Salesforce failed to succeed on original ideas
“None of their original ideas were the ideas on which they succeeded. So Apple, Google, you name the company, Salesforce, Hewlett Packard, none of them succeeded at their original idea, if you can believe that.”
Insight
Benioff: SaaS startups must enforce multi-year subscriptions instead of month-to-month contracts
“So when you're signing the customer, if you're just signing the month-to-month. It doesn't work. You've gotta sign them for one or two or three years at a time, and also that was an incredible part of the cash flow, too”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benioff: Sequoia and USVP rejected Salesforce three times in 1999
“No venture capitalist would give us money. We raised all the money privately. I was thrown out of, you know, Sequoia three times, US venture capital, three times.”
Insight
Evans: Oracle's database dominance didn't prevent Salesforce from succeeding
“Pretty much every enterprise software company is a relational database, but nobody looks at CRM or Salesforce or SuccessFactors and says, well, that won't work because Oracle has all the database.”
Assertion Partly supported
Amble: Salesforce Headless 360 is merely a rebranding of existing APIs
“I don't, from what I can tell, nothing actually changed. Their three 60 product was the same APIs that had always been exposed, now rebranded as their three 60 product.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Salesforce tests roughly a thousand pricing variants behind the scenes
“You even see exploration within, take a large company, take a Salesforce. Behind the scenes, they have their like list price. They have like a thousand variants in production, trying different things out, looking for the one that's going to stick and drive the…”
Assertion Supported
Wu: Salesforce changed its fundamental pricing structure three times in 12 months
“Agent force, like literally Salesforce, one of the biggest companies in the world changes fundamental pricing structure three times in the past 12 months.”
Opinion
Sivulka: B2B enterprise AI apps are becoming feature-bloated like Salesforce
“A lot of B to B enterprise AI apps will have a billion different apps, and they'll just be, you know, here's this feature, here's, here's this feature. And it's already starting to look a little bit like Salesforce.”
Insight
Schmidt: AI-native systems will bypass legacy CRMs by capturing data directly
“Instead of a human being sitting out at their computer and entering something in, we now can have basically AI always on and recording that conversation in real time Or frankly, having that conversation. And so you start to think about all of the legacy system…”
Insight
Gorham: Farmers resist software risk because they get only 40 crop cycles
“You get one chance or 40 chances in your whole career to produce a crop. And you, you're not gonna just take a flyer on Some guy with a shiny software package who says this can help. I can try in my business, I can try Salesforce and if it doesn't work, I'll t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benioff: Software startup valuations in Japan are much lower than US
“Because there are really great companies in Japan at valuations that are much more attractive than what we're paid for here.”
Insight
Acharya: AI applications convert raw model primitives into industry economic outcomes
“The key point about the application layer is that, you know, intelligence is a primitive, just like buying cloud is a primitive. And what does Salesforce do? It sort of takes the, you know, AWS cloud primitive and turns it into CRM software that delivers an ec…”
Disclosure
George: a16z has not found a startup capable of dethroning Salesforce
“We haven't found the startup that's like got the killer idea for like dethroning salesforce.com yet.”
Assertion Supported
Horowitz: Cloud software companies are 10x larger than on-premise predecessors
“If you compared the on-premise software companies to the cloud software companies, so compare PeopleSoft to Workday or compare Siebel software to Salesforce, the cloud version was just 10 times bigger.”
Assertion Supported
Scott Wu: Salesforce combines seat fees with usage pricing for Agentforce
“Salesforce, for instance, you know, they went and like added this agent for stuff. They still have per user access fees, but now the agent forces is variable cost on top that allows them to like, if the agents actually are providing value, now my business will…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jain: Early Salesforce buyers bought the software to learn Salesforce's playbook
“Like in the early days of Salesforce, people bought Salesforce to learn how Salesforce use Salesforce.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: Top Cisco sales reps routinely avoided using Salesforce
“The best sales reps at Cisco who had the biggest deals never put them into Salesforce.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levine: Data-driven digital assistants will augment workers across all professions
“I mean, in some ways it's already happening. There are companies out there who look at Salesforce productivity, looking at the most productive salespeople in an organization, learn what they do, modify that, and then go give that information to, so where every…”
Assertion Partly supported
Salesforce turned cash flow positive immediately after switching to multi-year subscriptions
“When we made that shift, then that next month we were cash flow positive, and we've never looked back on that.”
Disclosure
Amble: Incoming sales VPs routinely mandate adopting Salesforce
“When, like, new VPs of sales come into our companies, they, they're like, they mandate that Salesforce is there because they're used to using it, their teams are used to using it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amble: Notion users are more tech-savvy builders than Salesforce users
“Notion users tend, you know, all things being equal, are more, I'd say, tech-savvy and more agentic as builders”
Assertion Supported
Wennmachers: Salesforce defused early service outages by creating a public status site
“Salesforce actually has, was a really good example way back in the day when I was still at OutKast. They had some outage from, that was way more common then because, you know, we weren't all as savvy at it as we are now, and what they did, they went full trans…”
Insight
McGurk: Continuous updates make SaaS products stickier than perpetual software
“You know, you really don't know. So you have to the stickiness of your customers really dictated by in part by the product really, because in a you have constant updates. If you're a Salesforce customer, if you're a any SAS model customer, you're constantly ge…”