The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 37,600 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Stebbings: TBPN is the Clubhouse of our era with near-zero engagement retention
“I think it's Clubhouse of our era. And so they have brilliant channel market fit, which is they crush it on Twitter for very specific clips. When you look at any of their view rates, very little. When you look at their retention on engagement rates, fuck all.”
Chang: Employees are underperforming if a gun to the head yields more
“If you have a gun pointed to your head today, would you have done more? If the answer is yes, that means you're not doing a good job.”
Chang predicts Fuse Energy will eventually become bigger than Shell
“I think we could be bigger than Shell.”
Siddharth: All digital knowledge work will be automated within 10 years
“The glimpse of the future that I see is that all knowledge work is going to be automated. If a human's job involves looking at a computer, analyzing what's on the screen, using different tools, using a keyboard and a mouse, it's going to be automated. It's onl…”
Lemkin: 900 late-stage unicorn startups generating nine-figure revenues will never go public
“And then we've got 900 unicorns that are never going to IPO. Poor guys. We have nine, we all have one or two in our portfolio that are at nine figures in revenue that are still growing and will never IPO. And there is no PE buyer for them.”
Andrew Ng: Artificial general intelligence is decades or longer away
“So this phantom AGI, someday with AI, they can do everything a human can do. I think we're very far away from that. I would say, you know, like decades away, maybe even longer.”
Randle: OpenAI could raise at a $1T valuation next year
“I think it'll be a trillion dollar company next year. Yes. I think they could probably raise at the end of the year. Ah, you know, end of the year Q two, I think open AI could raise it a trillion dollars. No problem.”
Randle: Founders Fund's 'never fire founders' policy is rooted in laziness
“I think it's actually a convenience for Delian and some of the Founders Fund folks to absolve themselves of that weight and that responsibility just by being like, oh, it's not part of our, it's not part of our thing. But I think, you know, it's almost out of …”
Lemkin: Fire half your team if AI hasn't reaccelerated growth
“If you haven't gotten a boost this year from AI, fire half your team right before the holidays, give them a turkey and three months of severance, but they failed. You have a, your team is not good enough. They had 18 months to ship a product that mattered in t…”
Cahn: Chip makers finance AI buildouts to book revenue circularly
“The chip companies are now stepping up and saying, okay, we'll absorb some of the risk. We'll put in the capital to finance this build out where the demand on the other side is not so clear because of course the chip companies also get to book this as revenue.”
Salesforce salespeople are terrible hires because they are just order takers
“Salesforce. Terrible. Terrible. Because they have no idea how to sell. They, they're order takers. To your point earlier is they don't, if you go to a place that's just an order taker, they'd have no idea how to do it. They have no idea how to sell.”
Ross: Nvidia will be worth $10 trillion in five years
“I personally would be surprised if in five years NVIDIA wasn't worth 10 trillion, but I can't predict the outcome.”
O'Driscoll: AI reverse acqui-hires are regulatory shams leaving dead target companies
“We actually, in both of those cases, that's a pure pretense to get the government off of us, right? Everyone knows both of these companies are toast because in the case of Scale AI, in theory, Meta owns 50% of it, and in theory, their business is selling to ev…”
Frosst: Sam Altman warning leaders about AI threat was disingenuous
“He did a world tour where he spoke to every major leader the world over to tell them, hey, this technology is gonna pose an existential threat. And I think that was academically disingenuous, and I think did a disservice to the technology he loves.”
Benioff: Salesforce cut support headcount from 9,000 to 5,000 via AI agents
“And to that point, I've been able to reduce the number of human agents I have in support From about 9000 to about 5000.”
Deeter: Anthropic will be valued over $1 trillion within three years
“I mean, we put our money where our mouth is. We've been a buyer. So over, and that's again, like we a year ago when we were buyers, we still wouldn't have didn't conceive of that.”
Ron Gabrisco predicts Databricks will become a trillion-dollar company
“I think Databricks is a once in a lifetime type company. It will be a trillion dollar company. Somebody in that data and AI space will become a trillion dollar company, and we're the innovation leaders. I think we can do it, right?”
Databricks has migrated eight of Snowflake's top 10 customers
“We've done 250. Snowflake, the Databricks migrations, eight of their top 10.”
$7B Multi-Stage VC Funds Require $800B in Exit Cap for 4x Net
“You're close to, you know, eight hundred billion of market cap needed to return a Forex net for those multi-stage funds. Now, for reference, twenty-twenty-one, the best exit year of all time, there was 850 billion-ish of market cap exit value from that year. O…”
Casado: OpenAI Lost Its Early Leads In Code, Image, And Video Generation
“OpenAI was the first to code, right? With GitHub Copilot. I mean, they provided the weights. As far as I know, and they lost that. And they were first to image with Dali, and they lost that. And they were the first to video with Sora. And as far as I can tell,…”
Casado: Vertical SaaS Tech Is Simple CRUD Where The Team Doesn't Matter
“Every time I look at vertical SAS, I'm like, why do we even care about the technical team? It's fucking crud, man. It's like, crud is like create, you know, read, update, delete. It's like, they all do the same thing. They all just kind of look like a web app.…”
Edwin Chen says he wouldn't sell Surge for $100 billion
“No, I mean, I definitely wouldn't sell for thirty billion or even a hundred billion.”
Surge AI CEO: 2,000 human data points beat 10 million synthetic ones
“A lot of them tell us that even a thousand or a couple of thousand pieces of really high quality human data that we generated for them, it's actually been worth more than ten million pieces of synthetic data.”
Stripe founders asked Robinhood not to tokenize their shares, says Tenev
“I've shared this viewpoint with Patrick and John, and they give me some variant of, oh, well, we're just a small Irish family company. Please don't tokenize my shares.”
Tenev: Robinhood enabled private stock tokenization without target company opt-in
“And so I think it's important for the tokenization mechanism to work. Without the opt-in of the companies that, that are being tokenized. And I think that's actually the innovation that we've been able to drive. Like we can, we figured out how to make this wor…”
Stebbings: I would put my entire $400M fund into OpenAI
“If I could do anything without fear of retribution from my LPs, I'd put my four hundred million fund into OpenAI.”
Flanagan: 95% of B2B buying journeys will start in LLMs by 2027
“Google search is one of the best channels we had in B to B. 80% of all purchases started on Google search. It's predicted by 2027, 95% will start in LLM.”
Galloway: Universities create artificial scarcity to hike tuition faster than inflation
“Institutions like mine at NYU take pleasure in artificial, creating artificial scarcity so we don't let in as many kids as we could, such that we can drive up the cost of tuition faster than inflation and pay ourselves more for less accountability”
Galloway: Young people need to drink more alcohol
“Well, on a practical level, the young people need to drink more.”
Freise: KKR Lost Around $500 Million in Turkey
“In Turkey, I think we lost around five hundred million. What we didn't see was rule of law was a bit of a flexible concept there.”
Kaufman: Workers who fail to adapt to AI will be poor or burdens on society
“Seriously, if you're not going to take the time to make yourself valuable, to embrace reality, you're doomed. I'm not going to help you. If you don't want to do this, you're either going to be poor or a burden on society.”
Kaufman: Workers who fail to self-upgrade in the AI era are done
“But if not, fuck you. You're done. You're done. You're not done at Fiverr. You're done. Period. Because no one, there's not going to be demand for people that cannot upgrade themselves.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI misses next year's revenue target by 40% if growth matches Google
“If all OpenAI is, Is just as good as Google, then it's going to miss its number next year by about 40%.”
Lemkin: A Top VC Firm Will Give Sam Bankman-Fried $100M
“I don't think Rory or I would, I'll defer to Rory, but I think someone will fund him. He's smart as Rory, Rory said, like he showed the upside as well as the downside. I don't know if there's a lot of morality in the business. I think someone will give them ju…”
Lemkin Advises CEOs to Mandate RTO and Fire Non-S-Tier Engineers
“The only advice I gave to this particular CEO is immediate, like he was hybrid. So I said to force a hundred percent of people returned to office in 30 days and let everyone go, except your S tier engineers, letting them all go. Because you don't need them.”
Grinda: Anduril products are extraordinarily high cost and not battle-tested
“Endural, and look, I'm an investor in Endural. The problem is their cost is extraordinarily high, and so the way you measure this is cost per kill, and they're not battle-tested.”
Lemkin: AI will replace half of sales and customer success teams
“Half of these sales teams will be gone in two years. Half of these sales and customer success teams will be gone in two years because they're mediocre. They'll be gone. They're all going to be laid off.”
Lazarte: AI replacing human workers is venture capital's top opportunity
“One thing that I think is super exciting right now is, like, just replacing people. It sounds really bad when you say it this way, but I actually think it's the most exciting opportunity and venture right now, and it's actually gonna be fantastic for humanity.”
Scott: AI scaling laws have not hit a limit yet
“I can very clearly see what we're doing now and like what we're doing next. And I don't see the limit to the scaling laws. Like if you're just sort of thinking about the raw capability of the models and like how well you can condition them to reason over incre…”
Scott: Microsoft chose not to launch models more interesting than DeepSeek-R1
“We've had models more interesting than Deep Seek R-One that, like, we didn't even We chose not to even launch them.”
Scott: 95% of net new code will be AI-generated within five years
“95% is going to be AI generated. I think very little is going to be line by line is going to be human written code.”
Scott: Frontier AI models diagnose health issues better than average GPs
“It is already the case that I think the frontier models are probably better like health diagnosticians than Your average GP is”
Hoggett: Most UK companies listing in the US perform poorly or delist
“In the last 10 years, only 20 UK companies have listed in the US that have raised over a hundred million. Of those, nine have already delisted, only four are trading up and the rest are trading down by over 80%.”
Krieger: DeepSeek release had almost no impact on Anthropic's go-to-market
“I got this question a bunch with deep seek when deep seek came out, like, all right, what does deep seek mean for you? And I think there's things that we learned from on the tech side, just looking at what they were doing, but from a go to market and place in …”
Oscar Pierre Faces a Potential Six-Year Prison Sentence Over Glovo's Labor Model
“And unfortunately, the, yeah, the country where we suffer from regulation the most is Spain. I'm not going to go into the details, but it's so extreme that I'm now in a criminal process for so the, yeah, the prosecutor, the general attorney accused me with six…”
Ramaswamy: ChatGPT Users Will Not Switch to DeepSeek
“You're not going to switch from ChatGPT to DeepSeq. It's a product. It's not a model.”
Pishevar: Fusion GPS gave a fake police report to Fast Company
“We found out an investigation that two weeks after I won the case founding Partner of Fusion GPS was sitting at a cafe in DC with a reporter from Fast Company with a memory stick and a fake police report from London about me. And they gave it to the reporter.”
Hoffman: Trump abused state power for personal gain in first term
“Even in the first administration, there was the, there were some abuses of instruments of state for personal gain, for personal power. And that is, I think anti the spirit of anything in democracy, anti the spirit of anything in American.”