The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4,908 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 846 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Grimm: Anduril will become the sixth defense prime alongside incumbents
“I don't see it as like Lockheed, Boeing, Northrop, Raytheon, et cetera. We're going to take all of them down. I don't see that at all. I think it's going to be like, we're going to become the sixth prime alongside them and that there's still plenty, plenty, pl…”
Chirls: 75% of 2020-2021 vintage VC funds won't return principal
“If you think about the twenty-twenty-one vintage, I think a one X fund will be top quartile. I think returning your money is, I think returning your LP's money on almost any timeframe will be top quartile. So in that sense, probably 70, I would guess 75% of th…”
Narayanan: AI model scaling cycles are ending
“We're not gonna have too many more cycles, possibly zero more cycles, of a model that's almost an order of magnitude bigger in terms of the number of parameters than what came before, and thereby more powerful.”
Shaun Maguire: Equal outcome equity is communism and will destroy the West
“And the definition of equity Or like the widely accepted definition is, is not creating equal opportunities. It's to have equal outcomes. That is insane. Like the idea that, that like, no matter what someone's work ethic is, or no matter like what their talent…”
Ohanian: NWSL will be bigger than MLS in 10 years
“That's why I think the NWSL will be bigger than the MLS in 10 years. Because we can tell a story of excellence in women's football in America using the NWSL. But not the MLS.”
Asparouhov: Western Europe will eventually look like a third-world region
“Western Europe is going to look like a third world.”
Motamedi: Current Series B VC vintage overall will not perform well
“Again, Harry, I come back to, unless you're betting that public market multiples are going to re-expand, or that the growth durability of these assets is a lot stronger than what we've seen in the past, the vintage writ large is not going to perform. It does n…”
ByteDance Will Delay TikTok Action Until After the US Presidential Election
“Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election, because they presume that Trump could get bought off by investors since, you know, he's a coin-operated person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.”
Sam Altman: OpenAI will steamroll startups built on static model assumptions
“It would seem to me that 95% of the world should be betting on the latter category, but a lot of the startups have been built in the former category. When we just do our fundamental job, we're going to steamroll you.”
Hulme: 90% of AI foundation model capital will go to zero
“Foundation models, 90%. Application layer, 70%. And in the incumbents, the value going into the incumbents, only 20%.”
Altman: OpenAI will steamroll startups building static software wrappers
“When we just do our fundamental job because we, like, have a mission, we're going to steamroll you.”
Lonsdale: Israel Will Keep Fighting and Completely Wipe Out Hamas
“The way it stands now is, is we're going to keep fighting. We're going to wipe out Hamas and hopefully we can work with others to have a government there. That's not, you know, does not allow terrorism.”
Petersen: Remote US workers will lose jobs to offshore talent arbitrage
“By the way, I think remote work can really work, but it's not going to benefit the people who think like, it's not going to be people making 250,000 dollars a year hanging out in Jackson Hole. It's going to be geniuses in the developing world Making, you know,…”
Huber: Wealth redistribution would revert to 80/20 inequality within five years
“You could take all the money in the United States right now. You take all the money and you could divide it equally among everybody. Take all the money and divide it equally. And in five, 10, 15 years, you could argue about the timeframe. In five years, at lea…”
Khosla: Nuclear fusion will demonstrate net positive energy by 2025 or 2026
“I believe demonstrating positive energy by 25, maybe 26, will be also 10 X faster.”
Summers: Fed cannot lower inflation to target without an economic downturn
“My own view, and I've said this many times, is that what Samuel Johnson said about second marriage is true about soft landings. They represent the triumph of hope over experience, and I don't think we're likely to be able to bring inflation down to its target …”
Mostak: Only 5 or 6 Foundation Model Companies Will Exist in 3-5 Years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”
Mostaque: AI Will Eliminate All Outsourced Programming Jobs in India
“India, all of the outsourcing jobs in programming will go, because GPT-IV can go level three Google programmer exam and pass it.”
Mostaque: AI Will Build Software Automatically, Eliminating Human Coders
“Why would you need a human for that if the AI gets better and better at coding? Just tell it what you want. I want to create an app for 20 minute VC that has these features. Of course it will go and build it automatically. Where is the human coder in that?”
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
LeCun: Human-level AI will not be achieved using autoregressive LLMs
“Well, so first of all, there is no question that eventually AI systems will understand the world in similar ways that, that humans do perhaps better ways but there will not be autoregressive large language models as a type that we're now talking about.”
LeCun: Autoregressive LLMs will be obsolete within a few years
“So my prediction is that within a few years, nobody in their right mind would use auto-reversive LLMs. They'll go away in favor of something more sophisticated and controllable. They can plan its answer as opposed to just produce one word after the other react…”
Ackman: Biden wealth tax will bankrupt every startup in America
“You know, the Biden wealth tax, which is like, 25% of the appreciation of things that you own privately, it's going to bankrupt every startup. No one will ever start a business in America anymore, right?”
Lemkin: Employees joining a $1B unicorn in 2023 will make nothing
“If as an employee, if you join a company with, in, in 2023 with a valuation over a billion as an employee, you're gonna make nothing. It doesn't matter what it sells for, you're gonna make nothing.”
Emil Michael predicts Benchmark's fixed $435M fund model will fail
“That's why I think Benchmark ultimately is going to, is, has no innovation. Forget the reputation, which most entrepreneurs, if they do their deals, will find out about, but just not innovating stuck at four hundred thirty-five million for the next 10 years is…”
Whatnot Will Have the Largest IPO in History by 2032
“We're the biggest social commerce marketplace in the western world. We've had the biggest IPO ever.”
Carney: Long-Term Interest Rates Will Rise Notably This Decade
“I believe that very central banker-y answer, but I believe long-term interest rates are going to rise, notably this decade. I long felt that we were in a low for long, and I felt that for a long time. I was right about it for a long time. Now I feel that there…”
Amazon and Alibaba will lose top e-commerce positions within 10 years
“I think in 10 years from now, Amazon and Alibaba will not be the biggest e-commerce companies anymore. They will get disrupted by other companies, younger companies, more creative, more agile companies, and I think people will look back at Amazon and Alibaba l…”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will be a multi-hundred billion dollar business by 2026
“And I think this business over the next five years is a multi-hundred billion dollar business.”
Avi Meir: Business travel in 2021 will surpass 2019 levels
“I'm willing to bet That business travel will grow in twenty-twenty-one. Not based on twenty-twenty, based on twenty-nineteen.”
Khosla: OpenAI's AGI Could Eliminate the Need for Human Work
“OpenAI is going after a big, hairy, audacious goal of building an AGI. That, to me, is worth pursuing as an investment, but also for society. It may eliminate the need to work for society, Lots of issues there, but it could be really, really exciting if it wor…”
Facebook Will Launch a Crypto Coin and Become Bitcoin's Main Competitor
“Now, I will say also that on crypto, I think that there's a high probability that the company that will really succeed in crypto will be Facebook, and the reason is that for them to launch their own coin and for them to distribute that coin and allow developer…”
Lee predicts an imminent, massive crash in the ICO market
“So I fear that there's going to be a huge crash in the whole ICO market sometime soon.”
Altucher in 2015: Uber will become a trillion-dollar company
“They're ultimately a logistics company where on one side are people who want to do things for money, and on the other side are people who want to pay for services. So they're going to be an entire slice of kind of the world's, you know, GDP at some point. So, …”
Franceschetti predicts Eight Sleep will hit $1B revenue with 250 people in three years
“Two 50 people making a billion.”
Franceschetti: Children born today will never work due to AI
“Well, I don't think if a kid is born now, by the time they are 20 years old, they will ever work. By then, I think AI will be at a point where humans don't work.”
Lemkin: VCs will increasingly offer bad deal structures to win competitive rounds
“We will see deal structures that are objectively bad for the company done more and more often to win deals, whatever it takes.”
Greze predicts users will trust AI agents to autonomously share personal data
“I think you'll trust your agent to decide what data to share with other people without you intervening in five years.”
Greze: LLMs will replace human security teams in classifying and gating data
“As opposed to having humans in your compliance and security team over time, label data and decide what goes where and what can be accessed. I think we'll just start to trust LLMs to do that.”
Stebbings predicts Meta's stock price would rise if Mark Zuckerberg departed
“If Zuck expired, Meta's stock price would increase.”
Most European Point-Solution Startups Will Fail in the US Market
“And that's why your European startups, most of them are going to fail at least in the U S because they can't do much more with more, right? They're going to fail. Their little point solutions are just going to disappear in six months. We don't need those littl…”
Reyes: Model training and self-improvement will not stay exclusive to frontier labs
“And so I think that right now the, there's like a couple of companies that claim that, like, recursive self-improvement and model training will be only their domain. And I think in reality, many businesses will have access to that technology via software servi…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will IPO later and lower than Anthropic
“The rank, the most, the big picture fact is the ranking has changed, and you're now number two. So you will go out later then and a lower price than the other guys, unless you change the trajectory massively.”
Lemkin: Workers Will Threaten to Quit Without Continuous AI Agents
“Next year, there's going to be backlash. I can see it in my best portfolio companies where we can't go back anymore. We can't live. We can't go back in time. And I need my 10 sub agents running 24 hours a day to do my job or I quit.”
Lemkin: Databricks and OpenAI IPOs will be nail in coffin for SaaS
“I think it will be the nail in the coffin for almost every public software company. And what I mean is when Stripe and data, like, okay, there's OpenAI, there's Anthropic, we can put them in a different category, right? They clearly are on many levels. When Op…”
O'Driscoll: Defense tech venture returns will suffer from market consolidation
“I think an area where, despite it being amazing for America and important for the world, I think the venture returns of the March might be tough will be defense, not because we don't need all these products, but because I think there's an element of that busin…”
Lemkin: Classic CS and CX software won't exist in 24 months
“Classic CS and CX won't even exist in 24 months. There's really no, there'll be commodity cheap products But we won't even need it. It's already dying and merging into marketing, sales, every, everything's becoming one agent.”
Murdock: Continuous learning will replace frontier models rather than bolting onto them
“They're going to replace frontier models. I don't think you can bolt on continuous learning into an existing frontier model. I think they're going to try and the early stages will look like that. But I think ultimately it'll call for a new form of architecture…”