why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Jason James: DoorDash beat Instacart by capturing suburbs and expanding faster
“So yes, DoorDash did beat Instacart. I mean, why did that happen? I think the main thing is they expanded faster, went, you know, beyond restaurant sooner. I think also their key insight was when the suburbs, they got there first, beat, you know, Uber Eats to …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2026
Glovo Will Overtake Uber Eats in Portugal Within One Year
“I'd say Portugal, but we, but we're gonna get there in a year. Uber Eats is still ahead because we launched too late, but we're gonna get there.”
Assertion Supported
Khosrowshahi: Uber Eats is as big as DoorDash globally
“Uber Eats is actually as big as DoorDash on a global basis, and so when we think about Uber, we think globally, right? And we are the global leader along with DoorDash.”
What-if
Emil Michael: Uber Eats would have beaten DoorDash under original leadership
“So I would have beaten door, we would have beaten DoorDash, guaranteed. We were ahead by 30 points when Travis Night left, so letting that atrophy was not an option.”
Insight
Emil Michael: Loose capital cycles enabled Uber to launch Uber Eats
“For founders, it's more a good thing than a bad thing. That means that there's more capital out there. So if your business model requires more capital, you can get it. And look, people are going to say, oh my God, it's loose capital, free money, blah, blah, bl…”
Assertion Supported
DoorDash outmaneuvered Grubhub and Uber Eats by subsidizing economics for market dominance
“DoorDash in particular that was able to raise an incredible amount of capital, and they were competing against Grubhub and Uber Eats, both of whom were at that point public companies, and then were being evaluated by a completely different rule book in a way. …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Östberg: Just Eat, Deliveroo, and Uber Eats are all profitable in the UK
“Just Eat, Deliveroo and Uber Eats, and they all make money in the UK, I would say decently so.”
Assertion Partly supported
McDonald's Mandated Global Uber Eats Exclusivity for Delivery in 2018
“The CEO of McDonald's in Chicago sends a message to all the countries and says, Hey, we have to go into delivery and we have one exclusive partner, which is Uber Eats. That was in 2018.”
Disclosure
Most European VCs Passed on Glovo, Doubting It Could Beat Uber Eats
“All the European VCs or most of them passed on us. Nobody believed in our story, you know, a bunch of kids from Barcelona beating the Deliveros and the Uber Eats of the world who were always like one step ahead in fundraising, right?”
Disclosure
Khosrowshahi: Uber Eats initially bet on the wrong delivery strategy
“So I think the biases that we had Which is coming from an urban rides business that was all about the five minute ETA, made us early on bet on the wrong thing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mansour: DoorDash defeated Uber Eats through product superiority, not capital
“Uber Eats had, I mean, infinite capital to, compared to DoorDash, but Tony Bell's a better product and Tony won, right?”
Opinion
Östberg: Antitrust regulations prevent food delivery consolidation in the UK
“Now, I don't think that there is, it's possible to consolidate UK and a few other market due to high trust. Reasons. So you can probably not consult at Deliveroo and just eat the Uber and Deliveroo and so on.”
Disclosure
Glovo's Paris Expansion Failed Due to Launching Years Behind Competitors
“Milan worked really well. Paris didn't work well. And the main reason was because in Paris we were late. No, we were launching maybe like two or three years after Deliveroo and Uber Eats launched. So we never gained the scale and the leadership to be a sustain…”
Assertion Open
Tolkin: Uber Eats was created as an entirely separate app and org
“In, you know, Uber's case, even more extreme is you do what Uber Eats was, which was like a totally separate app, a totally separate org and totally separate, separate everything.”
Assertion Supported
DoorDash holds roughly 60% US market share compared to Uber Eats' 20%
“I think DoorDash has something in the sixties. Uber has something in the twenties.”
Assertion Supported
Will Shu: Uber Eats used McDonald's as a global expansion weapon
“They had McDonald's. Right. They had this secret weapon and McDonald's is the world's most famous food brand.”