why aren't all 41 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Stebbings: Threads will stall at 5M DAU while Twitter grows
“I would say threads does not work. Maybe it teases along at five million DAU with hardcore small numbers. And I would say Twitter has modest growth to Two 75, 300 with election spikes.”
Assertion Partly supported
Murdock: Flipboard Turned Down ~$1B Acquisition Bids From Twitter and ByteDance
“They had two bidders going for them at the time. And that was very, very interested in them at around, I'll say within 20% of that number, and, ah, one of them was Twitter, and the other one was TikTok, the founder of ByteDance, and founder just, you know, he …”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: X Revenue Has Shrunk 50% Since Musk's Acquisition
“Twitter's, Twitter's just, growth has fallen off, it's shrunk 50% since he bought it.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Bret Taylor Forced Elon Musk to Complete $44B Twitter Acquisition
“For the second time in the last five years, he totally wanted as board chairman of Twitter, where he jammed that down Elon's throat for forty four billion dollars despite his opposition, and he won here today because he unraveled the mess and set it all up for…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Seed market has no downturn and is more vibrant than ever
“There's no downturn in seed whatsoever. No matter what, Twitter's wrong. Twitter, seed is more vibrant than ever, and we can talk about why, and seed is also split up more than ever.”
Assertion Supported
Wenger: Musk has the personal wealth to absorb Twitter's debt
“Yeah, no, I mean, look, I mean, that's tough noogies for you, but you're still one of the world's richest people, and you still could basically give any debt provider an out, and you could still basically just take a bunch of your wealth and sort of say, look,…”
Assertion Supported
Twitter's board failed to find a better CEO than Jack Dorsey
“There was a committee of the board that was trying to find somebody else, and they weren't able to find anyone better than Jack.”
Assertion Partly supported
Twitter suffered shrinking users, brain drain, and zero profit before 2017
“The company was not doing well. I mean, sort of ethically, it was the company itself was shrinking. It was a, there was a brain drain and there was also the user base was shrinking. There wasn't revenue or profit. And nobody felt like Twitter was a special pla…”
Assertion Partly supported
Uber, Airbnb, and Twitter Could Be Profitable by Cutting Spend 10%
“Today, Uber or Airbnb want to be profitable, or Twitter wants to be massively profitable. If they were to cut their spending 10, 20%, all of a sudden those companies look massively profitable. The only reason they're losing money is because they've chosen to c…”
Assertion Partly supported
US State Department asked Twitter to reschedule maintenance during Arab Spring
“Someone from the State Department reached out, and this is a public story, so I'm not saying anything that can't be said. Someone from the State Department reached out and said, wait, wait, you can't go down at, you know, two a.m. Pacific. That's the middle of…”
Assertion Supported
Bijan Sabet's Twitter Series B Catapulted Spark Capital Into Top Tier
“As I was joining Spark, Bijan Sabat at Spark led Twitter series B and that investment catapulted us into the upper echelon of VC firms.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Vlad Magdalin: Users will build full software products on Webflow within five years
“So I can imagine five years from now, people building the next, not just MVPs, but entire software products on top of Webflow, like the next Airbnb, whatever that idea is, the next Twitter, the next product hunt, all of it.”
Assertion Partly supported
USV's 2004 Fund Had Four Investments Each Return the Full Fund
“We made investments in Zynga, Twitter, Indeed, and Etsy within about a six month period. In our 2004 fund, each of those returned the fund.”
Assertion Supported
Jerry Murdock: Twitter had 30 employees and zero revenue when Insight invested
“When I invested in Twitter in 2009 there was 30 something people, no revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Yamashita: Dylan Field mapped design Twitter graphs to recruit early users
“One of the first things he did was he took design Twitter, he visualized it as a graph, and then figured out which people designers are following the most, and then went to those designers to get feedback on Figma and get them excited about Figma. And that was…”
Assertion Supported
Seibert: Tech companies are locking down data, reversing 20 years of open APIs
“You're seeing Reddit, Twitter, et cetera, shut off APIs, put in more strict rate limits, et cetera. And so the whole world is starting to lock down data, which was counter to the trends over the past 20 years, when everything was being pushed more and more ope…”
Assertion Partly supported
Velez: 15,000 Nubank customers tweeted at Brazil's Central Bank during 2017 crisis
“Monday morning, there were 15,000 customers on Twitter of the Central Bank of Brazil saying, you cannot do this.”
Prediction Held up
Balfour: Twitter daily active users will stay flat at 250M
“Yeah, I chose, they're flat. I think Twitter's flat, two fifty million.”
Assertion Supported
Rachitsky: Snap and Twitter hired first PMs specifically for monetization
“Snap and Twitter, from what I understand, both hired their first PM to explore monetization on the platform.”
Assertion Supported
Stone put 'Seinfeld of the internet' on early Twitter homepage
“When we were doing Twitter, somebody early on said, Twitter is the Seinfeld of the internet. It's a website about nothing, and the first thing I thought was, wow, Seinfeld's a hit show, and I put it as a testimonial on the rotating testimonials I put on the we…”
Assertion Partly supported
Rowghani: Twitter grew from zero to $2B revenue during his tenure
“And when I left about five years later, we went from no revenue to two billion dollars in revenue.”
Assertion Partly supported
Giphy powers the native GIF buttons inside Twitter, Facebook, and Slack
“We actually power that button. We power the gift button inside of Twitter. We power the gift button in Facebook. We power gifts in Slack.”
Assertion Supported
Twitter had under 250,000 daily active users when Spark Capital invested
“There was less than 250,000 daily active users.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Shillo: AI messaging will enable direct transactions in Twitter and Messenger
“This technology will, through artificial intelligence, will allow those companies to be able to communicate on those platforms using, ah, transactional cards, which will be really exciting. So you could actually transact right there in Twitter and Facebook Mes…”
Assertion Supported
Benioff Reaffirms Salesforce Almost Acquired Twitter
“We almost bought one. You probably remember we almost bought Twitter.”
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Twitter chose Fred Wilson's Series A bid because he used the product
“If you're Fred Wilson doing, you know, consumer internet in 2005, you'll hear, you know, you heard the reason that, that Twitter picked him, you know, when it was a competitive deal at the series A was that he was using the product.”
Assertion Supported
Seibert: Twitter, Slack, and YouTube originated as completely different products
“Twitter was a podcasting startup. Slack was a game. YouTube was a dating website.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Twitter Posts Perform Best Early Morning or Late at Night
“Twitter tends to hit best early in the morning or late at night.”
Assertion Supported
Sahil Bloom started posting on Twitter in May 2020
“It's actually twenty-twenty. I didn't start sharing things on Twitter until May of twenty-twenty. I had like a few hundred followers at the time”
Assertion Partly supported
Sahil Bloom gained his second 100K Twitter followers in just 45 days
“The first 100,000 took, I don't know, eight, nine months. And then I think I've grown a 100,000 in the last. 45 days or 50 days.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mac Conwell grew his Twitter following from 2,500 to 50,000 in months
“Last June I had 2500 followers, right? Like 10 years. 2500 people. I went from 2500, I think I just crossed 50,000, like yesterday.”
Assertion Supported
Dorsey and Stone established Twitter's purpose as serving the public conversation
“What I did when I came in is, is Jack and I hammered out a purpose statement for Twitter. The answer to the question, why do we exist? Because before that, if we asked around at the company, you know, what's the purpose of Twitter's existence? People would say…”
Assertion Partly supported
Crashlytics Reached 300 Million Monthly Active Users Within 12 Months
“Just over 12 months after launch, we hit three hundred million MAUs, and then Twitter acquired us.”
Assertion Partly supported
Cover reached 2M organic users and sold to Twitter in 14 months
“We grew to over two million users in our first couple months with zero money spent on paid acquisition, and we got acquired by Twitter just 14 months after founding the company.”
Assertion Supported
Rowghani: Twitter went from zero mobile engineers to 80% mobile usage
“And we went from no mobile products and no mobile engineers to 80% of our usage was on mobile.”
Assertion Supported
Twitter completed about 14 acquisitions in 14 months under Rishi Garg
“After that, we did a bunch of different projects, about 14 or so acquisitions in about 14 months.”
Assertion Contradicted
Seibert: Twitter acquires an average of one to two companies a month
“Twitter on average acquires one to two companies a month. They have for years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Harry Stebbings: Twitter acquired Crashlytics for $259M
“Which I believe is used on over a billion devices today, and they were ultimately acquired for two hundred and fifty nine million dollars by Twitter.”
Assertion Supported
Twitter Acquired Crashlytics for Nine Figures Before Selling to Google
“Prior to Digits, Wayne and Jeff co-founded Crashlytics, which was acquired by Twitter for a nine-figure sum in January, and then acquired from Twitter by Google in 2017.”
Assertion Partly supported
Twitter had under 20 employees and 1M users when Kevin Thau joined
“When he joined, they had less than 20 employees and one million users”
Assertion Supported
Betaworks invested in Airbnb, Twitter, and internally built Bitly and Chartbeat
“Matt is Director of Seed Investments at Betaworks, who have invested in the likes of Tumblr, Airbnb, Groupon, and Twitter, and have internally built startups such as Chartbeat, Bitly, and Socialflow.”