The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,680 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 155 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Anthropic will die within 12 months if complacent on Claude Code
“If Anthropic thinks cloud code is already a win, In six or 12 months from now, they won't even be around.”
Tobi Lütke calls the climate movement one of the most evil things
“Well, you have to get rid of the climate cult, first of all because it's just like, I mean, it's one of the most evil things that's been wrought on on, on, on population.”
Andreessen: Fears of AI labor displacement are 100% wrong
“This entire labor displacement thing is a hundred percent incorrect. It's completely wrong.”
Andreessen: Most large companies are overstaffed by 50% or more
“Essentially, every large company is overstaffed. It's at least overstaffed by 25%. I think most large companies are overstaffed by 50%. I think a lot of them are overstaffed by 75%.”
Mitchell Green: 50% to 60% of VCs add negative value
“I think 50% of people in the venture business should not actually be in the business. There's too much money and there's like too many tourists. 50, 60% of people in this industry that actually probably add negative value to companies.”
Mitchell Green: China will win the global AI competition
“Don't count China out. I bet they win the AI world.”
Former Snowflake CRO calls Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi a dick and liar
“I, you know, I strongly dislike the CEO of Databricks, but I think Mike, cause he's a dick and he's a liar, but you know, I look, I think at the end of the day, if I, if I'm honest about it, I think the two companies as a combined entity, that would be a amazi…”
Nvidia Conceals Massive Chip Field Failure Rates to Keep Customers Waiting
“You don't talk about the field failure rate of your products, which are massive. Rather you sort of keep talking about the future in an effort to convince people to wait, to make a good decision rather than go with technology that's, that that's better and pre…”
Elon Musk and Tesla Failed at Building Wafer-Scale Chips for Dojo
“And after we did it Elon tried Dojo and they failed.”
Osika: Invest in xAI's Grok and short OpenAI
“I'd invest in GroK, and I would probably short Anthropic. No, I would short OpenAI.”
Edwin Chen considers company acquisition an admission of failure
“Because yeah, getting acquired would be really limiting. It would be this admission of failure and jumping ship because you can't make it on your own anymore.”
Lemkin: AI will replace half of knowledge workers in 24 months
“Half of these knowledge workers are going to be gone in 24 months”
Lazarte: Only 1% of computer knowledge work will exist in 10 years
“What percentage of knowledge work as we know today will exist in 10 years? Like if you define work, knowledge work as work you do behind a computer, I think it's probably like one percent.”
Feldman: Nvidia Has Zero CUDA Software Lock-In for AI Inference
“In inference, it's not real at all. There's no CUDA lock-in in inference. None. Well, you can move from OpenAI on an NVIDIA GPU to Cerebrus to Fireworks Service on something else to Together to perplexity with 10 keystrokes. I mean, anybody who actually uses A…”
Hyatt: Junior VCs prioritize quick markups from later-stage firms for promotions
“Well, that means if I want to get a promotion and I'm inside of schmooby schmooby VC firm, then I need markups. So if I need markups, how do I quickly get markups? I figure out what the guy one stage after me is interested in. And so my job is not really to go…”
Sivulka: Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) does not work at all
“That's a bit of a plot twist over here. We, I actually don't think RAG works at all.”
Pishevar: Bill Gurley was the wrong VC on Uber's board
“We had the wrong venture capitalists on the board. Unfortunately, in my opinion, it was Bill Gurley at Benchmark.”
Pishevar: Bill Gurley hired PIs and met weekly to oust Travis Kalanick
“We found out in our investigation that he hired Some private investigators had weekly meetings about how do we get rid of Travis.”
Pishevar: Benchmark Hired Private Investigators Against Naval Ravikant
“There's a history of VCs who have done this type of thing and in Benchmark's case, they did it against Naval. They hired private investigators and Naval Ravikant. He had a company called eGroups, and he got thrown out of it.”
Shulman: Using copyrighted works in AI training data is industry standard
“Yeah, we know that there are some copyrighted works in our training data. That's not illegal. It's stock standard for the industry. It's what every AI company does.”
McCabe: DEI initiatives are a bad idea that discriminate by race and gender
“I always thought it was a really bad idea to discriminate against people for their race or their gender or things like that. So I never was cool with DEI”
McCabe: COVID mRNA vaccines were harmful while traditional treatments worked
“During COVID, it turned out that these gene therapies were really bad for you, and that these traditional treatments were really, really helpful. Don't slap your face like I shouldn't have said that, because it's fucking true.”
Vishria: AI foundational models are fastest depreciating asset in history
“Foundational models are the fastest depreciating asset in human history.”
Shaun Maguire claims Iran has recently obtained nuclear weapons
“Allegedly they have just recently obtained nuclear weapons.”
Maguire: SolarWinds hack could have directly altered 2020 election results
“There was an extremely large hack happening during the election called SolarWinds, which my company was deeply involved in investigating and remediating, and there are other cyber experts that disagree with me, but I personally believe that SolarWinds could ha…”
Asparouhov: Benchmark cornered Travis Kalanick in a hotel room after mother's death
“Travis committed no crime and they, you know, sort of ousted him despite the fact that, you know, they actually didn't necessarily, you know, have the legal control to do so. They just cornered him in a hotel room, you know, two days after his mother had passe…”
Matt Clifford: The UK Can Return to Being the World's Richest Country
“I think the UK can go back to being pretty much the richest country in the world per capita. I really truly believe that.”
Every crypto company offering an Earn program is a fraud
“I believe every crypto company that has an EARN program is a fraud.”
Lemkin: Coinbase's 10% high-yield crypto program is a pyramid scheme
“And even, I know Coinbase is the good one, but where are they getting this 10%? It's a pyramid scheme. It's fraud.”
Founders should eliminate Customer Success and hire technical sales engineers
“Yes. Get rid of them. Build a professional service organization. Hire more SEs who can do it. Customer success. Look, people think that's blasphemy. I get it. I don't believe in it. I inherited our customer success when Frank came in and he gave it to me. I go…”
Tomaino: Crypto VCs hype private tokens and dump them on retail
“A big part of the crypto VC game is doing these private token deals, and then you kind of build some prestige media narrative hype and then sell the token to retail, and then retail gets sucked in, and the VCs kind of dump tokens on retail. That's like a big G…”
Lemkin: Every venture capital firm has a fraudulent company in its portfolio
“And every VC has a fraud in their portfolio. Every single VC has a fraud in their portfolio.”
Summers: A second Trump term would gravely damage the US economy
“I believe very strongly that by undermining the rule of law, On which contracts exchange and property depend by alienating the rest of the world and by pitting some groups of Americans against other groups of Americans and devaluing the idea of unity and commo…”
Expert: Superintelligence does not imply a desire to dominate humans
“There is this idea, somehow, the desire to, and the ability to dominate, is linked with intelligence. A statement that a lot of people are making, including Jeff Hinton recently, That somehow, as soon as a machine becomes intelligent, it becomes uncontrollable…”
LeCun: AI hard takeoff fears are false; no real-world exponential lasts
“So this is predicated on an assumption that is just false, which is the existence of a hard takeoff. Right? So the fact that the minute you turn on a super intelligent AI system is going to take over the world. And it's going to escape your control and it's go…”
Cohen: Nobody will use Concur, Amex GBT, or Salesforce by 2028
“In five years from now, nobody is using, going to use Conquer and Emacs. Nobody, by the way, nobody is going to use Salesforce.”
Wood: Disruptive innovation market cap will hit $210T in ten years
“We believe today that truly disruptive technologically enabled innovation is priced in the global markets, public and private, at somewhere in the seven to eight trillion dollar range. So it's less than 10% of the global equity cap, public and private. We beli…”
Emil Michael: Benchmark Capital lost its nerve ousting Travis Kalanick from Uber
“I was taken out with Travis because benchmark capital lost their nerve.”
Conrad: David Sacks made wrong decisions across product and strategy at Zenefits
“I got to this point where I was convinced that you know, David was not really interested in making Zenefits successful. And, you know, almost every decision he made at the company was wrong. You know, he the decisions he made from a product perspective, from a…”
Samani: Bitcoin is nonsense and not an inflation hedge
“No. Bitcoin is nonsense. It does not, there are so many ways to, you can choose to have a productive asset or a nonproductive asset. And then there are many assets that are naturally good hedges against inflation. The obvious of which is like Walmart and Amazo…”
Fabrice Grinda predicts UBS and Credit Suisse are too big to bail
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big. They're bigger, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it, and I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them, and…”
Grinda: Switzerland Is a House of Cards That Could Default
“Last year, as I was thinking through what are safe havens for cash, I was thinking of putting a lot of my cash in Swiss francs in Switzerland. And I did an analysis, and I realized, and I actually came to the conclusion that it's the opposite. I think Switzerl…”
Grinda: UBS and Credit Suisse Are Too Big for Switzerland to Bail Out
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it. And I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them.”
Chris Sacca claims he watched Mark Zuckerberg lie to the U.S. President
“And I've been in the room with Zuckerberg. I've watched him fucking lie to the president of the United States about what they know internally versus, like, the claims he spouts out loud.”
Sacca says he watched Mark Zuckerberg lie to the U.S. President
“I've been in the room with Zuckerberg. I've watched him fucking lie to the President of the United States about what they know internally versus, like, the claims he spouts out loud.”
Tenev denies Robinhood colluded with hedge funds to restrict meme stock trading
“The idea that somehow the most wrong thing was this allegation of collusion that we're somehow colluding with hedge funds that we have no business relationship with to somehow restrict buying of these stocks. Yeah, I think that was just wrong.”