The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Srinivas: Phone Makers Will Offer Multiple AI Search Alternatives
“The phone makers will start offering all of them as alternatives. It's not going to be like a locked-in default search option.”
Bromberg: Regulators Will Classify Almost All Token Sales as Securities
“I think that what will happen is that the regulators are going to say, these are almost all securities. You can't just sell these tokens to anyone on the public markets.”
Greene: Enterprise tech will consolidate into four clouds immune to startup disruption
“Everything's going to be in just a few, maybe four clouds or so, you know, there's not going to be that many of them, because like, we spend about ten billion a year in infrastructure, and so it's not going to Get disrupted by a startup, unless they invent qua…”
Benet: Decentralized storage nodes will beat AWS on unit economics
“Our bet there is that yes, that there's a whole bunch of places and cases where Certain individuals or groups in the world have access to either really cheap storage or storage that's positioned well in the network that is kind of like, you know, somewhere bet…”
Kaplan: AI training and inference will see 3x-10x yearly efficiency gains
“I think that over time, as AI becomes more and more widespread, I think that we're going to really drive down the cost of inference and training dramatically from where we are right now. Sort of, three X to 10 X gains algorithmically, and in sort of scaling up…”
Saez-Gil: New airline regulations demand 160M tons of carbon offsets annually
“All the airlines starting in twenty-twenty-one will have to offset their emissions. This is by regulations, right? Mm-hmm. It's called the Corsia Framework. Yeah. We are talking about a 160 million tons per year that are gonna be demanded by the market.”
Benjamin: 50-qubit supremacy devices will launch within a year but lack practical utility
“On the other hand, what we believe is about to happen in the coming year is that people will start to bring out qubits, ah, sorry quantum devices that are at or just a little bit over the quantum supremacy threshold. This number, a lot of people are racing to …”
Benjamin: Quantum hardware will soon reach behaviors impossible to classically simulate
“We are now getting on the verge of getting machines that will behave in ways that cannot be predicted, cannot be simulated. We'll be in the regime where we're genuinely discovering how the machine behaves by having one.”
Preskill: 50-to-100 qubit quantum computers will arrive in a couple years
“We think in a couple of years we'll have devices with about 50 qubits to a hundred, and we'll be able to control them pretty well, and that's an interesting range, because even though it's only 50 to a hundred qubits, doesn't sound like that big a deal, but th…”
Preskill: Quantum computers will enable tabletop toy spacetime in decades
“And in particular, what we're going to be doing with quantum computers and, you know, the other quantum technologies that are Becoming increasingly sophisticated in the next couple of decades is we'll be able to control very well, highly entangled, complex qua…”
Brundage: AI will achieve superhuman performance in StarCraft within three years
“Yeah, I think there will be Superhuman, Starcraft and Dota too, probably in that time horizon. I said in, I think early 2017 that it would be the end of, that I gave like 50% chance by the end of 2018. So this gives me more runway. I'll say, yeah, like, 70% co…”
Stuart: Single NVLink domains will soon scale to hundreds of GPUs
“And you also have a scale of architectures like NBL-L-Seventy-Two, which packs 72 GPUs inside a single NVLink domain, and soon this is going to extend to hundreds of GPUs.”
Mukund Jha: Hundreds of AI agents will collaborate on single tasks by year-end
“I think by end of the year you'll have, you know, agents which are running for hours. And like maybe hundreds of agents collaborating on the single task.”
Johnson: TikTok will produce more traditional, mainstream creators
“I think that TikTok is going to produce some people some more traditional, quote unquote traditional creators.”
Brillhart: All VR headsets are moving toward wireless volumetric movement
“All the headsets are going towards volumetric, like, you know, positionally wireless. So I imagine there being you know, a much a much more interactive, much more engaging, like you're not gonna sit there, you're gonna actually move around.”
Xie: Crypto adoption will take off in unbanked and inflationary countries first
“I think it's gonna be in countries where people don't have bank accounts primarily, and they now need a method of actually storing their own funds or countries where the currency is just getting inflated away, and so the currency is not valuable.”
Ravisankar: Most developers will learn to code before driving by 2028
“If you just extrapolate the trend line, I think this will be two and four or three and four developers will learn to code before they drive in the next decade or so.”
Bromberg: Crypto and Venture Capital Will See Much More Lobbying
“I think, especially given the attention given to regulation in the space, we will see way more lobbying happening in crypto and in venture capital over the coming years.”
Sparks: Smart scales will provide personalized dietary advice within five years
“Five years, we'll probably have a scale that'll be like, oh, you know, should probably cut out eating this, or you should eat more of this, or something like that. I think we'll see some pretty interesting consumer technologies come out of, you know, weird pot…”
Blomfield: Major AI coding tools will soon auto-ingest error logs
“It's so powerful that pretty soon I actually expect all the major coding tools to be able to ingest these errors
Without humans having to copy paste.
If you think about it, our value being the copy paste machine is, is kind of weird, right?
We're like, we're l…”