The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 654 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Szamosszegi: The Bitcoin mining network is almost carbon negative
“The entire network at this point in time is almost carbon negative.”
Gupta: AI models will eliminate the analytical layer in data pipelines
“I strongly believe the middle layer, which is the analytical layer, is going to go. The bunch of models that we are having, like, whether it is Anthropic or OpenAI, they are going to eliminate the interpretation part, which is mostly the analytical.”
Weisbrot: OpenClaw destroys computers, doxes users, and makes unwanted purchases
“There have been countless instances of people installing OpenClaw, and it destroys their entire computer. Or it doxes these people's information, or it spends thousands of dollars buying them things they didn't want, didn't ask for.”
Weisbrot: AI will collapse global financial systems within five years
“I think the smart people understand that there's only really a few years before five. Right. I think five is generous before things are really bad in that regard. And so like people say, oh, we're in cycles. Like, I don't think we're in a cycle. I don't think …”
Wightman: AI has permanently eliminated the need to hire entry-level agency staff
“In terms of knowledge work, which PR absolutely is, in terms of knowledge work, AI has meant for us that we haven't needed to hire particularly more junior people. We have been able to outsource a lot of the tasks that might have been the work I did when I was…”
Weisbrot: Businesses Without AI Will 100% Fail Within 24 Months
“And I think if a business doesn't have any AI in the next 24 months, they will be dead. I think a hundred percent chance they will not make it if they don't have AI.”
Stafford: AI Will Eliminate Accountants and Much of the Medical Field
“I believe there will be certain industries that go away that we just won't need like accountants you know, probably even a lot of the medical field.”
Goleshuk: Humans will not need to write code within four years
“Now in, let's say in three, four years, there won't be a need for somebody to write the code. You're just gonna be with one line describing what you're looking for.”
Lundin predicts AI could eventually replace human salespeople entirely
“I think that it's possible at some point in the future that AI could completely replace salespeople, and it's an unpopular opinion.”
Weisbrot: TikTok promotes divisive content outside China while curating positivity domestically
“It's been made clear that they have two algorithms, one for inside of China and one for outside of China. The one inside of China promotes social harmony, positive things, because the Chinese government wants people to see positive imagery and things that prom…”
Rosenstein: Every future video game will feature a play-to-earn economy
“There's gonna be this play-to-earn economy, in my opinion, that's gonna be created, and I don't think that, that, that people in the future will ever be playing video games to just, for free, essentially. I think that every game will have an economy in whateve…”
Arata: False misconduct accusations are primarily a fear, not a reality
“And your question was like, if somebody was falsely accused, right? I have yet to see one of those. That is more of a fear.”
Gupta: Analytics roles will shrink as data jobs shift to engineering
“A lot of jobs should shift towards the left hand side with the engineering side. The analytical side should become thinner.”
McGregor: Company holds rare KIC cryptographic access to all secondary mobile devices
“We are we're one of the few, or maybe the only company in the world to have KIC access to every secondary iOS and Android device in the world.”
May: OpenAI and Anthropic will be pushed to raise inference prices
“I think it's going to get worse before it gets better, because my guess is as open AI and anthropic IPO, wall street's going to scrutinize their unit economics. And it's probably going to ask them to raise prices, push them to raise prices on inference.”
Levin: U.S. immigration and tariff barriers will benefit overseas startups
“To the extent that immigration policies are changing, tariff policies, a lot of things that are kind of becoming barriers for innovation in the U.S., in my opinion, are going to help overseas startups as well”
Wong: Future startups will sell AI agent teams instead of SaaS
“We're not building, I mean, the analogy I'm using is you're not going to build an accounting software that people sign up for. You're going to build an accounting team that people hire. The AI team is the, is what people will hire in the future.”
Wong: The window of opportunity for AI agent startups is 18 months
“Today, It's very easy to get Vico into version 0.1, but from 0.1 to one takes a long time. Yes. And yeah, so that's today's, that's where we are today, but that's not going to last long. So this window of opportunity I think lasts about a year, year and a half…”
Putra: EightX risks going out of business within years from AI
“There's a chance that in a couple of years I won't have a business. And so we're grappling with that and that's part of why we're going very, very high touch.”
Fallows: Almost none of 7,000 ultra-high-net-worth community members hold permanent life insurance
“In our community of about 7000 people who are Either very high or ultra high net worth and, you know, price of a scan, these things, pretty much nobody carries one of these permanent life insurance.”
Fallows: Half of High-Net-Worth Community Members Have No Mortgage
“So half our members don't have a mortgage at all on their house.”
Ustinov: Future Knowledge Work Will Center on Unified Context Over Apps
“And I strongly believe that in the future, most of the work with any kind of systems will look like this. Of course it wouldn't be a cursor. It would be like something nicer in terms of interface and everything. But the process of building up your context, bri…”
Lulo: My LinkedIn DM response rate is 70 percent
“So my response rate on DMs on LinkedIn is seven or 70% or seven out of 10, which is insane.”
Weisbrot predicts rapid inflation due to Trump's policies
“We're going to see a lot of inflation very quickly because of Trump's policies.”
Twa: AI agent simulations have replaced human focus groups for Amazon listings
“We even have poll simulations for the images, the copy, the listings themselves, where we can take simulated polls That have been built through agents that then basically act like a virtual audience of thousands to tens of thousands of people, and then come ba…”
Rizzoli: Europe Adopts AI at Half the Rate of the US
“In Europe, we see about half the adoption rate. So for the same amount of revenue generated, European businesses are half as likely to make a purchase and to adopt.”
McKay: Familiarity and UX will decide the winner between ChatGPT and Claude
“That's what we'll win between Claude and ChatGPT. It's like for the average everyday user, the, Six billion people or whatever it might be. What's going to be most important for them is UI, UX, and how familiar they are with it and how often they use it. So if…”
Reshoring manufacturing will require less diverse, software-customized product lines
“And so what we are going probably to see also is that reshoring is not reshoring the same Factories, but it's also not reassuring the same products. And so you can reassure when you rethink the product line to make it less diverse, but more catered to each aud…”
Jamison: AI Will Not Materially Impact Physical Trades Like Plumbing
“AI is not going to change how, you know, someone remodels a house, how a plumber changes the pipes, like that type of thing, and at least not in a material enough way to make a difference.”
Brandon Wolf: Professional Investors Frequently Fail Basic Background Diligence on Founders
“I'll see professional investors back somebody. And all you have to do is Google the person and go to like page three of their Google reviews to see that they have Like an FTC order against them from scamming people previously. This is the level of diligence th…”
Adam Shell: Microdosing works for 95% of people unless biased against it
“And it's, it works for about 95% of the people. The only people who it doesn't work for are those that have a bias that, like, want to prove me wrong or prove microdosing wrong.”
Nanavati: Cimphony delivers $1,600/hour partner-level legal quality for $10 an hour
“Partners at law firms will charge anywhere from eight 50 to 1600 dollars an hour. And with us, they still get the similar type of quality at 10 dollars an hour in type of cost, which is incredible savings for a similar type of quality, what they could expect f…”
Dubois: Workforce knowledge drain will cause major industrial failures and food contamination
“I think that we're going to see you know, maybe some kind of major failures in equipment or, you know maybe I hope not, but maybe you know, plants having, you know, explosions or major issues that way. Or I think that we may find that we start to see stuff sli…”
Staus: Consulting Firms Only Capture About 5% of Created Value
“When we do this for, you know, large consulting firms or ad agencies, PR firms, whatever, you know, they are so focused on trying to show value in the kind of like the one to two quarter range that they only capture about five percent. Of the total value. They…”
Schurig: Poor Leadership Drives 70% of Stage 3 Clinical Trial Failures
“Almost 20% of stage three clinical trials fail, and 70% of the failures come back to clinical efficacy, which all comes back to poor leadership, the wrong talent, cutting corners, not interpreting FDA direction correctly, or protocol design.”
Early BlackBerry Security Beat Apple Because Apple Bolted Theirs On
“Because we built the security from the beginning into the operating system where Apple bolded on their security. So in those days, the security was stronger for the BlackBerry.”
Sparrow: B2B tech providers lacking natural language AI face obsolescence by 2024
“And my view is anyone who does not have that kind of interface a year from now is going to be uncompetitive. And that's especially true for any technology and service provider. But you're going to be seeing more and more of it inside of, you know, corporate wa…”
Weisbrot: Refusing brain implants will cause job loss for next generation
“I feel like the next generation will be like, oh, if you don't want to get an implant in your brain, then you're going to lose your job. And you may lose out on economic opportunities because you're not willing to take that step.”
Reyes: Next major war will be fully automated and AI-powered
“I think the next big war is going to be fully automated. Like the problem is that it's going to be fully automated, but it's still including humans. So then we'll just have a massive chop, chop, chop of people. And it's gonna be, like, drones and chips and, li…”
Reyes: Universal ChatGPT usage will eventually eliminate original human thought
“That there cannot be any more original thoughts because all thoughts are optimized to follow the Gaussian distribution because we are all using ChatGPT. So then like it's, we're just Sampling from the same distribution and there's no more creative people anymo…”
Reyes: An AI-centered religion will eventually emerge for humanity
“We're gonna have to have some kind of a spiritual revolution towards how to live with AI. Like I'm sure there's gonna be some AI religion at some point.”
Foster: AI will shrink product teams but make top talent highly valuable
“And I think the same kind of thing is going to happen when it comes to product as well, which is there's going to be a need for fewer product people, but the very best are going to be worth their weight in platinum.”
Weisbrot: India will not replicate China's centralized manufacturing scale
“There's no way India will become a China because China, despite what's happening right now with COVID making it look like it's not organized. It's a very organized country and Xi Jinping has done a really good job of getting rid of corruption. And You know, th…”
Clayton: VC-backed lawn care startups wasted $1B by lacking industry focus
“There's been about a billion dollars of capital crashed into the ground really in this one industry in terms of venture backed startups. That have been better funded, better, you know, smarter teams, more experienced teams that have chased kind of this same op…”
Weisbrot: NFTs could replace smart contracts and STOs
“I think NFTs actually could replace smart contracts and STOs or security tokens.”
Weisbrot predicts individuals must own AI by 2040 to avoid economic subordination.
“You know, there's a good chance that by 2040, if you don't own your own AI, you will be owned by an AI that Google, Facebook, Apple, or Facebook, you know, one of these companies own. Like you basically have 20 years to make your money or you're going to becom…”
Parrish: AI building its own application builders is over 20 years away
“Even though we can use voice to no code, we won't be able to use AI to just build the application builder itself likely by that point, just because there's a lot of server management logic and stuff like that, that needs to happen on the backend for that suppo…”