The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,121 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 23 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Weisbrot: Chinese government directly subsidizes manufacturers flooding US with opioids
“The Chinese government is directly responsible for flooding the US with these medications. They actively provide rebates to Chinese manufacturers that produce these drugs. And get them in the hands of Western companies that then lobby for them to be available …”
Joe Rare: US transition to CBDC will wipe out dollar wealth
“If they flip the US dollar into a, you know, a CBDC, right? That you're not going to get dollar for dollar exchange. They're not going to do it there. You're going to go, okay, well you have a million dollars and okay, great. We'll give you 500,000 dollars in …”
Staus: Consulting Firms Only Capture About 5% of Created Value
“When we do this for, you know, large consulting firms or ad agencies, PR firms, whatever, you know, they are so focused on trying to show value in the kind of like the one to two quarter range that they only capture about five percent. Of the total value. They…”
Versteeg: Extroverts and introverts differ by only 0.03% in sales success
“And by the way, the only difference between extroverts and introverts in sales success is 0.03%. So let's just debunk that myth. There's no difference in whether you have the gift of the gab or whether you're silent.”
Tulla: Past startup failure is the only measured factor increasing future success
“It is only thing that impacts people's likelihood of making it big is the fact that they have failed before. So there's a book called The Super Founders that goes deep into the topic and looks at the data for 2030 years back. All the companies found it, and th…”
Weisbrot: Studies show sugar addiction is worse than cocaine and heroin
“It's a serious addiction. It's worse than cocaine and heroin. Like there's been studies that have been done.”
Tulla: Morning glucose spikes cause you to eat 15-20% more daily calories
“If you eat even like an oatmeal and if you put stuff on it, like, you know, something like maple syrup and raisins, you're going to have a massive glucose spike in the morning. And that will end up you eating 15 to 20% more of calories throughout the day.”
ASX Study Found Female CEOs Returned 50% More Profit Over Five Years
“There was a study that I saw of done. I think it was done by the Australian stock exchange. Or it was done by someone and their focus was the ASX. I'm not quite sure. It was a while ago that I read it, but they studied the companies on the exchange over a five…”
Schurig: Poor Leadership Drives 70% of Stage 3 Clinical Trial Failures
“Almost 20% of stage three clinical trials fail, and 70% of the failures come back to clinical efficacy, which all comes back to poor leadership, the wrong talent, cutting corners, not interpreting FDA direction correctly, or protocol design.”
Schurig: C-Suite Executives Have Five Years Shorter Life Expectancy
“Executive CEOs, people in the C-suite have a life expectancy five years less than the rest of us”
Early BlackBerry Security Beat Apple Because Apple Bolted Theirs On
“Because we built the security from the beginning into the operating system where Apple bolded on their security. So in those days, the security was stronger for the BlackBerry.”
Sparrow: B2B tech providers lacking natural language AI face obsolescence by 2024
“And my view is anyone who does not have that kind of interface a year from now is going to be uncompetitive. And that's especially true for any technology and service provider. But you're going to be seeing more and more of it inside of, you know, corporate wa…”
Weisbrot: Refusing brain implants will cause job loss for next generation
“I feel like the next generation will be like, oh, if you don't want to get an implant in your brain, then you're going to lose your job. And you may lose out on economic opportunities because you're not willing to take that step.”
Reyes: Next major war will be fully automated and AI-powered
“I think the next big war is going to be fully automated. Like the problem is that it's going to be fully automated, but it's still including humans. So then we'll just have a massive chop, chop, chop of people. And it's gonna be, like, drones and chips and, li…”
Reyes: Universal ChatGPT usage will eventually eliminate original human thought
“That there cannot be any more original thoughts because all thoughts are optimized to follow the Gaussian distribution because we are all using ChatGPT. So then like it's, we're just Sampling from the same distribution and there's no more creative people anymo…”
Reyes: An AI-centered religion will eventually emerge for humanity
“We're gonna have to have some kind of a spiritual revolution towards how to live with AI. Like I'm sure there's gonna be some AI religion at some point.”
Foster: AI will shrink product teams but make top talent highly valuable
“And I think the same kind of thing is going to happen when it comes to product as well, which is there's going to be a need for fewer product people, but the very best are going to be worth their weight in platinum.”
Weisbrot: WhatsApp Co-Founder Forfeited $400M Payout To Get Away From Zuckerberg
“The guy ended up telling Zuckerberg to F himself and he walked away from a four hundred million dollar, like partial payout. Just so he could walk away from the company and get away from it.”
Weisbrot: India will not replicate China's centralized manufacturing scale
“There's no way India will become a China because China, despite what's happening right now with COVID making it look like it's not organized. It's a very organized country and Xi Jinping has done a really good job of getting rid of corruption. And You know, th…”
Niedel: MIT45 will be one of the first publicly traded kratom companies
“I mean, our vision right now is certainly to be one of the first public, if not the first publicly traded Kratom company in the world. And our revenue is supporting that. Our growth is supporting that. There'll be some uniqueness to figure out what exchange to…”
Freckling: Law Enforcement Can Legally Buy Private Geolocation Data for Prosecutions
“It is legal for law enforcement to purchase private data that's collected this way through geo location, through search history and law enforcement can purchase that information and use it in prosecution without running a foul of the fourth amendment to unreas…”
Freckling: Google shared ad data with sanctioned Russian entity RuTarget
“Google was found to be sharing data with root target, which is actually a sanctioned Russian company, a unit of spare bank that was subject to sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.”
Clayton: VC-backed lawn care startups wasted $1B by lacking industry focus
“There's been about a billion dollars of capital crashed into the ground really in this one industry in terms of venture backed startups. That have been better funded, better, you know, smarter teams, more experienced teams that have chased kind of this same op…”
Weisbrot: NFTs could replace smart contracts and STOs
“I think NFTs actually could replace smart contracts and STOs or security tokens.”
Weisbrot predicts individuals must own AI by 2040 to avoid economic subordination.
“You know, there's a good chance that by 2040, if you don't own your own AI, you will be owned by an AI that Google, Facebook, Apple, or Facebook, you know, one of these companies own. Like you basically have 20 years to make your money or you're going to becom…”
Weisbrot: Humans have maybe 200 years left before Earth becomes unlivable
“I think we've got 200 years left, maybe, before the Earth is unlivable for humans, and once all the humans are gone, the planet will rebound, the animals will come back, everything will be fine, and a new species will take over.”
Stepanov: Direct foreign hires cannot be written off on US taxes
“If you're hiring somebody directly in another country, the money you pay them, you would not be able to write it off on taxes. So this person would have no status because there's no provision in the U.S. For you to write off foreign employees or foreign contra…”
Parrish: AI building its own application builders is over 20 years away
“Even though we can use voice to no code, we won't be able to use AI to just build the application builder itself likely by that point, just because there's a lot of server management logic and stuff like that, that needs to happen on the backend for that suppo…”
Weisbrot: Pharma Charges Higher US Prices to Subsidize Foreign Markets
“The pharmaceutical companies charge incredible amounts in the US
In order to not have to charge higher amounts outside of.”
Dragan: Technology will shift to carbon-based molecular biology within a decade
“And I think a lot of the ways that we're thinking about the world right now in terms of technology is going to shift in the next 10 years or so through molecular biology. So it's going to be less silicon based technology and more carbon based technologies. We'…”
Grazer: Filing a patent application typically adds $1M to startup valuation
“Typically filing for a patent application, even before it's granted as an, you know, before it becomes an issue, patent will add a million dollars to the valuation of a startup.”
Weisbrot: Bitcoin's Creator Would Probably Be Executed if Identified
“If their identity is discovered, they will probably be executed. For upending the financial system.”
Zhang: Bay Area engineers cost 4 to 5 times more than Shanghai peers
“So an average engineer here in the Bay Area cost about four to five times the salary of one of equal caliber in Shanghai.”
Gupta: Enterprises will consolidate fragmented data stacks into unified platforms
“So I think the first round of disruption and transformation that is going to happen is enterprises are going to look for Platforms and tools and products which can give end-to-end capability. They don't need to go too deep, but it should be one.”
Weisbrot: AI Will Soon Build Trust Better Because It Is Non-Judgmental
“Maybe today, but I think very, very soon that's not going to be true, because AI is very good at making humans feel comfortable, and humans feel like AI isn't judging it because it's not another human. So I feel like AI will be capable of doing that if it's no…”
Goyal: Relationship-First Engagement Drives 80% LinkedIn Connection Acceptance Rate
“So typically by doing the kind of taking that philosophy, my connect, accept race acceptance rates around an 80%, right?”
Weisbrot: Workers Not Using AI Will Lose Jobs Within Years
“And I legitimately think they're all going to lose their jobs in the next few years.”
Indries: AI Outreach Scripts Underperform Agency Scripts 90% of the Time
“90% of the time AI generated scripts underperform the scripts we have in our marketing agency.”
Indries: Indistinguishable digital AI avatars are one to two years away
“Give it maybe one to two years and digitally, I will be able to create a digital avatar of myself that looks exactly like me, sounds exactly like me. You will not be able to tell.”
Weisbrot: Neuralink Success Could Create a Zerg-Like Hive Mind
“I would say the Zerg would happen if Neuralink wins.”
Indries: People in Their Thirties Might Live for Hundreds of Years
“You and I might not die because we're like in our thirties. So we will evolve enough, you know, so that you can live to be a few hundred years old. And then if you live to be a few hundred years old, we might invent something, you know, that makes you basicall…”
Weisbrot: WhatsApp was used to spy on Jamal Khashoggi
“Applications that were used to spy on journalists like Khashoggi, and it was done through WhatsApp.”
McGregor: 6G architecture will instantly identify all callers, ending network anonymity
“So the six G architecture, we working with NVIDIA and a lot of these Ericsson, Google show that all calling is known at the instance of calling.”
McGregor: AI infrastructure management will accelerate 6G rollout to three years
“You know, I think that six G is going to happen quickly because a lot of the foundational things is going to be run by AI. Meaning that a lot of the more of the basic setups and all that kind of stuff, the infrastructure stuff will be all AI, so we'll have eff…”
Shifflett: Punched CEO in arm after he grabbed her during meeting
“I punched him in the arm and said, don't you ever touch me again.”
Rischitelli: Meta Collects Smart Glasses Data Regardless of User Consent Settings
“Whether you are sending it to Meta or not, Meta's getting that information.”
Rischitelli: AI Will Eliminate More Jobs Than It Can Create
“But this one I believe is going to be so significant that the volume of new work that comes out of this new technology, I don't think it's gonna be there to replace the work that it dissipates.”
Colbertson: Salaried in-house fundraisers provide a legal safe harbor for startups
“If you hire them and promise them a certain salary, like, because this is your job or something like that that's, One of the safe harbors that's being provided under the Securities Exchange Act. Although that's the only, the key and the pillar that not to, the…”