why aren't all 94 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit's profit margin dropped to 5% amid aggressive spending
“Yeah we've been spending a little more aggressively this year, so we're doing about five percent profit. And then but at the beginning of the year, we're closer to 20, 23%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Latka: ConvertKit drives growth through user mini-competitions
“The way he's like driving a lot of growth right now is he's doing these mini competitions.”
Assertion Partly supported
ConvertKit grew monthly recurring revenue from $2K to $100K in 12 months
“So January, 2016, the previous 12 months, we'd grown from 2000 in MRR to a 100,000 in MRR.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nathan Berry: Organic search drives about 40% of new ConvertKit accounts
“Yeah, so it drives about 40% of all of our new accounts.
[2106] Nathan Latka: Wow.
[2107] Nathan Berry: Is from search.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Berry: ConvertKit affiliate revenue share dropped from over 30% to roughly 20%
“And at one point affiliates we're driving a little over 30% of all of our revenue. That's probably dropped into the 20, 20% range”
Disclosure
Berry: Private equity firms show up nonstop to buy ConvertKit
“We haven't had like a crisp, you know, like here's the offer on the table, but like the private equity people show up nonstop, you know? And I just always like saying no thanks before it gets to”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit's viral referral traffic converts significantly lower than baseline channels
“Now, powered by traffic converts a lot lower than other traffic. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but if a visitor to conversion, visitor to free account conversion rate is seven or eight percent, like in other channels, Powered by traffic might …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit aggressively cut profit margins to 5% to fuel faster growth
“We've been spending a little more aggressively this year. So we're doing about five percent profit. And then but at the beginning of the year, we're closer to 20, 23%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit generates $830K in monthly top-line revenue through affiliate referrals
“Yeah, so we divided that out, we're at about 830,000 in monthly like top line revenue driven by affiliates.”
Assertion Supported
ConvertKit has reached a milestone of 250,000 total users
“But like, now for ConvertKit, it's like, oh, we have 250,000 users, and so let's just tell them to use this new thing.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Berry: ConvertKit paid at least 3,000 affiliates in 2020
“Yeah, it'd be at least 3000.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit's viral badge drove 3,000 weekly pre-freemium visits
“Prior to this year so last year, maybe we were driving two to 3000 visitors a week through powered by links.”
Disclosure
ConvertKit spends approximately $400,000 per month on paid advertising
“I think about 400,000.”
Disclosure
Nathan Berry: ConvertKit marketplace is probably a couple years away
“It's probably a couple of years off.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Berry: ConvertKit reached 50% profit margins within five months in 2016
“And we grew our way from like barely break even to five months later, we had 60%, sorry, 50% profit margins. Three months of expenses in the bank.”
Assertion Supported
Berry: ConvertKit has reached $25M in ARR
“Yeah, so we're at twenty five million ARR right now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Berry: ConvertKit pays about $250k monthly in affiliate commissions
“So we're paying out About 250, we can figure this out, about 250,000 a month to affiliates.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit's free-to-paid tier conversion rate reached 5%, beating 3% forecast
“We, in our models, we expected a three percent free to paid conversion rate. We came in at a five percent rate and we're like, that's fantastic.”
Disclosure
RightMessage raised $500k from integration partners including ConvertKit and Leadpages
“No, we raised half a million. So we raised from early customers along with, Some of the companies we integrate with, like ConvertKit, Leadpages, Drip, and so on.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit converted 52% to 55% of upfront credit card trials to paid
“We were running about a 52 to 55% trial of paid conversion rate with credit card up front.”
Insight
Berry: ConvertKit shifts activation metrics based on user list size
“If in signup, they said they have 2000 subscribers. Now we know that our single goal is to get them to import those subscribers. And so it can totally change the activation metrics based on who they are.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit hit a record 5,200 monthly trials after dropping upfront credit cards
“I think the month of June, we're at 5200 trials. So that's substantial way better. I think our best month ever before that was in the 3000 range.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Berry: ConvertKit Expansion Revenue Cuts Churn in Half But Misses Net Negative
“Expansion revenue definitely helps, but it hasn't been enough to get us to, you know, net negative churn, which is the ultimate goal. So it cuts our churn rate in half. But you know, we still have to drive a lot of new revenue.”
Disclosure
Berry: ConvertKit spends $20K to $25K monthly on paid advertising
“We do some, I think our paid ad ads budgets is about 20 to 25,000 a month.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Berry: ConvertKit Runs 15 Partner Webinars Monthly Driving 30 to 500 Trials
“Yeah, we tend to average 15 a month, and those range from really big ones with someone like Pat Flynn that will drive, you know, 500 trials or something like that, which is pretty substantial or we'll do smaller ones that will drive 30, 40 trials and that's st…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Berry: ConvertKit alerts demo team for leads over 5k subscribers
“If you put in, you have over 5000 subscribers, then that alerts our demo team and it tries to get you to schedule a demo.”
Disclosure
Berry: ConvertKit paid $310,000 to purchase Seva.com domain
“I bought it about two and a half months ago. And Yeah, we paid 310,000 dollars for it.”
Disclosure
Gamito: Nathan Barry hired him as ConvertKit's first full-time employee
“I was Nathan's first hire at ConvertKit. I was his first full-time hire and he brought me on to do marketing and this new emerging thing, which was needed called customer success.”
Prediction Partly held up
Barry: ConvertKit will generate $3.5M to $4M in 2016 revenue
“I tend to focus on the monthly numbers, but it's going to be, you know, three and a half, four million.”
Assertion Supported
Barry: ConvertKit ARPU is $48 with 65% on $29 plan
“So we're at about 48 dollars in average revenue per user. So about 65% of our customers are on that 29 dollar a month plan.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit holds $1.2 million in cash reserves
“We have 1.2 million in the bank right now.”
Disclosure
Barry: ConvertKit affiliate payouts total roughly $45,000 monthly
“45,000. It tends to find it to hang out about 10% of our revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Barry: ConvertKit hovered at $1,000 to $2,000 monthly revenue for two years
“So I actually launched it back in 2013. And it was kind of a side project and effort there. And it kind of floundered around for about, you know, a 1002 thousand dollars a month for almost two years.”
Disclosure
Barry: ConvertKit Added ~25k Subscribers in 2016 via JV Webinars
“So we've probably added 25,000 subscribers to our list this year, just purely through joint venture webinars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Barry: ConvertKit expansion revenue cancels half of churn
“We're about halfway there right now of expansion revenue canceling out churn.”
Assertion Supported
Barry: ConvertKit has about 10,000 blogger customers
“We have about 10,000 bloggers as customers.”
Disclosure
Barry: ConvertKit gets 25% of revenue from affiliates with 30% commission
“So we, about a quarter of our webinar, a quarter of our revenue comes through the affiliate program and then we pay out a 30% commission.”
Disclosure
ConvertKit targets a monthly profit margin of around 25%
“We try to keep the profit around 25,000 or sorry, not 25,025 percent per month.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Barry: ConvertKit user churn is 7.6% while revenue churn spiked to 8.2%
“We see that it's at 7.6% of user churn. And revenue churn was sitting, you know, 6.8 or so. But actually, you know, if you switch to an annual plans, you're losing revenue. And so that counts towards revenue churn. So it just spiked in the last couple days fro…”
Disclosure
Barry: ConvertKit is entirely self-funded
“Totally self-funded.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit gained 1,000 new customers from a first-month-free email campaign
“We did that first month free promo for our email list and we got a thousand new customers on that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ConvertKit generated almost $300,000 in annual plan revenue in two days
“We did almost 300,000 in annual plan revenue in two days, just from that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Berry: ConvertKit will return to a 20% profit margin next year
“And so next year, we'll return to the 20% mark.”
Disclosure
Barry: ConvertKit hosts partner webinars even for only 25 attendees
“So if you can only bring 25 people to a webinar we'll still happily do it, because we have it down to a great system, and we see it as we get to do a live demo to 25 people.”
Disclosure
Barry: ConvertKit Runs 10 to 20 or More Webinars Monthly
“We do about 10 to 20 or more webinars a month.”
Assertion Supported
Barry: ConvertKit employs 24 full-time remote team members
“So all around, we're at 24 full-time people now.”