The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,513 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 48 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Castellanos targets $125M ARR for Science on Call in five years
“Yeah, I think in the next five years we want to be at a hundred and twenty-five million in ARR, and that'll include going abroad to other countries, Europe and Latin America, as well as convenience stores and retail, and we want to be able to automate 80% of w…”
Muccio: Jesse Middleton ghosted Science On Call after the pitch
“After the show, two calls and a ghosting. Jessie's the ghost. Jessie, check your email.”
Fielding: $350 annual per-user employer fee is unseen in B2B software
“For healthcare, I haven't seen it for software.”
Kwok: KAV has an estimated $15M to $20M R&D moat over potential rivals
“Right now, We have probably like a 15 or twenty million dollar R&D moat between us and them.”
Gupta: Unlike big brands, KAV Sports achieved custom manufacturing profitability
“I think, broader, a lot of companies have tried custom. Big brands. And they just can't get it to work anywhere near profitability. And this company has.”
Callegari: 95% of New Shareholder Value Will Come From the US
“No, what we believe is that 95% of the shareholder value we're going to generate in the next year will come from the US.”
US Revenue Hit 25% of Italy's 8-Year Total in First Year
“I mean, in less than one year, I'm making more than 25% of all the revenues that I'm generating in Italy in eight years.”
The government opened $1.2B in Work-Study subsidies to for-profits in 2020
“Around three billion dollars in wage subsidies comes from the federal government and the state government. So each year there's a program called Work Study. It's about 1.2 billion dollars. In 2020, they opened it up to for-profit companies because college camp…”
FolioWorks is the first Work-Study employer of record for for-profits
“And so they opened up to for-profits and we became the first company to be the employer of record on behalf of any other company.”
Wong: Enterprise clients will not cut FolioWorks out due to reporting burdens
“I don't think that means they're going to cut us out. I think that it would take a lot of effort for them to do all the reporting that's required to Create a work study-approved job, and then do all of the reporting that's completed by us, but we're building t…”
Lockstop: Competitors Cost 5 to 100 Times More and Require Heavy Infrastructure
“But those existing solutions that are out there, like Uni and Bike Keep, cost five to a hundred times the cost of a lock stop device. They require infrastructure and a lot of space allocation.”
Burton: Lockstop expects to break even within 24 months
“In 24 months is when we expect to hit our break-even point, and so that 1.5 takes us all the way to that position where we're generating our own revenue and we're floating our own boat.”
Howie Diamond: Outlines won't achieve mainstream adoption due to high prices
“I don't see the mainstream adoption for this product because the price is way too high and way too premium for me to
To get involved in this because I just think it's going to be a very, very small select people who care about the environmental impacts to get …”
Doherty: Apple will meaningfully build spatial memory tech within five years
“I think that Apple will start, like, working on this in a really meaningful way in the next, like, Five years.”
Kinzie Lux: Ride iQ TAM exceeds $20B across four verticals
“The TAM is north of twenty billion dollars when we expand across three other verticals.”
Howie Diamond: Ride iQ will take our money in 18 months
“They'll take our money in a year and a half from now. ... They will. Trust me.”
Braima: Africa will hold one-third of global youth within seven years
“In seven years, Africa will be home to a third of the global population of youth.”
Braima: One in five internet users will be in Africa by 2050
“By twenty-fifty, one out of every five customers on the internet will be in Africa.”
Tobias predicts Kimoyo will exit for mid-double-digit millions, not $100M+
“I don't think it ends up being a billion dollar exit, or even a hundred million dollar exit. I think it ends up being a maybe mid double digits exit.”
Braima insists Kimoyo will become at least a $200 million business
“How do you not see that this is going to be like, you know, at least at the minimum, a couple hundred million dollar business?”
Blue Nile's online customization tool has not changed in 10 years
“Well, no, because they're, they already technically have a version and hasn't changed in 10 years.”
Stahl: HILOS holds exclusive deal with the world's largest 3D printer
“We have incredible partners that the largest, most industrially scaled, three D printing partner in the world that we have an exclusive relationship with.”
Besenval: Natrion is piloting with 10 automakers and cell manufacturers
“We're currently piloting with 10 automakers and cell manufacturers where they're actually evaluating our materials and battery cells.”
Jillian Manus: Ginger, Hurdle, and Kaiser already have mental health video libraries
“I invest a lot in this space and I know that there are a lot of companies like Ginger and Hurdle and a number of other ones that have this content. Just Kaiser, even the healthcare systems, has a whole library of these exactly looking like this.”
Ariana Vargas: Sequoia advised Stigma against pursuing the B2B HR path
“I went to San Francisco and met with Sequoia and they were like, this is a bad path. Don't go down it.”
DotCal will become a billion-dollar company via shared scheduling
“We're gonna look back in a few years and be like, oh, dot cow became a billion dollar company because of shared.”
Dotcal's absolutely ridiculous valuation is going to get even more ridiculous
“And by the way, the valuation is ridiculous. It's absolutely ridiculous, but it's going to be even more ridiculous.”
Wheaton: Wardrobe and Pickle aren't truly peer-to-peer and hold centralized inventory
“A lot of the examples that I've seen, for example, wardrobe or pickle, a lot of these very recent platforms that are popping up are not actually entirely peer-to-peer. They call themselves peer-to-peer, but they still have centralized closets where you pick up…”
Medina: Automakers lacking vehicle-to-grid tech will face massive competitive disadvantages
“All manufacturers are going to be V-IIG, like any car manufacturer in the future that doesn't have that is going to be at a significant competitive disadvantage compared to the ones that do.”
Muccio: Only about 10% of demo day investment commitments convert to cash
“A lot of the investment that they get at demo day doesn't actually follow through. I want to say it's something like 10% actually ends up in the bank.”
Nadel: Tampax or o.b. can crush Aunt Flow on price
“I think that that's a better way to go, but then I'm worried about the competition, because a company like Tampax, or if they want the eco-solution OB, can crush her in terms of price.”
Coder: James Altucher ghosted Aunt Flow after offering an investment
“Never heard from him ever after the show.”
Allen: Rowvigor CTO ghosted a crucial San Francisco investor pitch flight
“I had bought him a plane ticket and, you know, and we had talked about how important this was and he just missed his plane and didn't say anything or attempt to get on another one.”
Caldwell: Bank denied founders' home equity loan despite strong credit and homeownership
“Courtney and I, we own our house, and we've had a nice credit score, so went to the bank, filled out the paperwork, and got denied.”
Muccio: Investor Jillian Manus convinced a portfolio company to return PPP money
“But if you listen to investor Jillian Maness, she says that the government should not be giving any help to some startups. And she even convinced one of her companies to give their PPP money back.”
Phil Nadel predicts broad shift to onshoring manufacturing for products
“There's going to be a whole move to onshoring lots of different products.”
RealKey's MVP reached $70,000 MRR in its first four months
“In fact, our MVP within only four months, Reach 70,000 MRR and we're raising a million dollars right now to go through and to grow our sales and support team to grow our current market.”
Laguerre: Autonomous trucking will initially operate via five-truck platooning systems
“In order for autonomous to really take a full effect, our entire infrastructure, we have to change number one, but however, I do see autonomous working early on for long distance load and how that worked is they're doing that through a platooning system.
Where…”
Autonomous trucking will complement Fleeting by increasing final-mile driver demand
“Autonomous
does not
Pretty much affect our business, as a matter of fact, and complement our business, because trucking companies are, will be looking to hire a lot of part-time drivers to drive these truck off the ramps to their final destination.”
Debbie Wei Mullin notes obscure coffee brands are selling for $300M
“Coffee companies that you haven't even ever heard of are selling for three hundred million.”
Srinivasan Claims Spot On Customer Acquisition Cost Is Under One Dollar
“So, currently our customer acquisition costs are under a dollar.”
Hyatt: Spot On Will Consume Immense Capital Scaling B2C Marketing
“But as soon as you actually start going wider and actually start putting marketing money in, one thing you're going to find about a B to C, you will drink capital marketing this business. This is going to be horrendously expensive to scale.”
Lee: Sene maintains an online order return rate under 6 percent
“Our return rate for online orders is sub six percent.”
Goldberg: Most consumers are perfectly happy with standard apparel sizing
“And then the majority of people are actually happy with the standard sizing systems.”
Yin: Competitors will easily copy Pepper's small-cup bras if they succeed
“If you start to do well, I'm pretty certain other people will crack the nut. Like, I don't believe this is rocket science, so this is like a first mover hustle advantage”
Charles Hudson predicts Virtual Gurus will command a 1x-2x revenue multiple
“I think it's going to be a one to two X multiple on, because I think it's going to look like a services business for its entirety. And it's going to look like a really Profitable one, but those are one to two X multiple businesses.”