The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 130 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 130 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prince: Bot traffic will be 1,000x human internet traffic in five years
“And I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, going, going, you know, forward, say five years, that, that bot traffic will be a thousand times human traffic online.”
Elon Musk: Space will be cheapest location for AI compute in 2-3 years
“The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. And that'll be true within two years. Maybe three. Three at the latest.”
Musk: AI and humanoid robots will eliminate global poverty
“But AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty.”
Coogan: AI labs will likely solve the Millennium Prize problems this year
“I think that the millennium prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week, it feels like all of the different labs are like, Put a million dollars of inference on this. Put a million dollars of inference on this. There …”
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic compute capacity will scale from 3GW to 20GW
“OpenAI and Anthropic combined to start the year had three gigawatts of compute. Three combined. They're gonna end the year closer to 10, and end next year closer to 20.”
AI will undoubtedly lead to fewer software engineering jobs, says Lynch
“So what does that mean if you're a software engineer? It means there's gonna be fewer jobs, aren't you? Without a doubt. Fewer jobs. For now.”
Shkreli: No clinical trial of BPC-157 will ever work
“I would bet anything. I would bet anything. No trial of BPC would work.”
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
Sam Lessin predicts most sub-$50M seed funds will disappear without DPI
“I think what we're going to find is that, you know, a, The market, most of those funds are going away because they don't have that and they're not going to be.”
Hausman: Most future frontier AI models will train on real-world robot data
“So I think over time, it's quite likely that, that the places are gonna switch a little bit, where most of the models, including, you know, LLMs and BLMs, are gonna be using real-world data collected through robots, because that's the data that has no ceiling,…”
Arnott: A water-based conflict with China in the Asia-Pacific is coming
“So the Asia Pacific fight with China, clearly that's a water-based conflict that's coming.”
Lessin: AI leverage will create one-person billion-dollar companies
“I totally buy the thesis that you're going to see individuals that have a lot of trust and brand and community and deeply understand a niche. Do things you haven't seen before. Like, I buy the one person billion dollar company thing. Like, I think that's real …”
McCormick: Cancer is probably gone in 10 years
“I think a hot take would be cancer is probably gone in 10 years, I think is one of my favorite hot takes. There's just so many different attacks on it, and CAR T cell therapies are doing well, and it's a matter of kind of scaling, scaling those out.”
Hays: Sequoia Will Make Money on Its X Investment in 10 Years
“I would be willing to bet my house that they'll make money on this investment in 10 years.”
Torre: The Los Angeles Clippers will not sell for $10 billion or more
“My point being that they're not gonna get 12 and a half, they're not gonna get 10”
AI Will Add Half a Percent to Annual Economic Growth
“You go back to 1995 through 1998, we got half a percentage point of extra growth out of those advances. They, to me, seem less impressive than AI, so I think over time, with some slowness, we'll get that and maybe a bit more, which is great.”
Baker: Sovereign AI Outside the US Will Rely on Fine-Tuned Open Source
“Yeah, so I think what sovereign AI will look like for essentially all countries really other than the United States and China, although I think China is going to fall further and further behind, is just some sort of, you do, you use you know, you use one of th…”
Shotwell: SpaceX will achieve orbit and second-stage recovery with Starship this year
“And this year I believe we'll get to orbit with that vehicle, and we'll recover the first, the second stage.”
Gerstner: Anthropic and OpenAI will keep growing despite enterprise spend optimization
“Of course, I believe that optimization will continue, but my hunch is that anthropic and open and these companies will continue to grow right through the optimization because the growth curve on penetration of both enterprise and use case is so steep.”
Gerstner: California wealth tax will fail and asset protection referendum will pass
“The wealth tax will be defeated. We will pass the retirement And personal asset protection act as a referendum in California, which will prohibit people from stealing your retirement money or your personal assets that will get passed.”
Chesky Predicts Most Generative AI Revenue Will Flow to Coding Tools
“I would predict that most revenue is going to go be going to codex. That's my, I might be wrong, but just given how much money is going to Claude.”
AI will monitor employee messages and calls for real-time behavioral coaching
“I think to me what will happen is the analytics are going to get so much better. And these systems are going to know and they're going to be able to look at your, WhatsApp, and your messages, and your emails, and all of your calls, and they're going to be able…”
Kim: Nvidia's US-China regulatory approvals will drive billions in H200 orders
“And one thing that kind of went under the radar, Jensen literally said at GTC they got license approvals on both the U.S. And China side, so we're gonna see billions of dollars of H 200 orders.”
Cuban: Adversarial graffiti will inevitably confuse vision-based self-driving systems
“There's somebody somewhere trying to figure out how to fuck up self-driving mode, right? Because it's just taking video input, and you know, what, it could be some pattern, and all of a sudden you're seeing this pattern on medians, or, you know, overlaid on st…”
Jensen Huang: Nvidia Will Build Orbital Data Centers in Space
“In the future, we'll also build data centers. In the, in space. Obviously, very complicated to do so. We have, we're working with our partners on a new computer called Vera Rubin Space One, and it's going to go out to space and start data centers out, out in s…”
Huberman: Retatrutide will become a trillion-dollar drug
“This is going to be a trillion dollar drug, trillion dollar, but people are already taking it.”
Four billion people will have AI personal assistants, Marszalek predicts
“We believe that you will have four billion people having personal assistants that should play the role of kind of a chief of staff for your entire life with great contacts being proactive, getting things done for you rather than just chatting.”
O'Laughlin: Amazon will spend $200B in CapEx by year-end
“I think at the end of the year, they're gonna be like, yeah, they spent two hundred billion.”
Patel: Semiconductor fab capacity will become the primary AI bottleneck in 2027
“The baton got passed from semiconductor shortages in 23 to power and data centers in 24, 25. 26, we're still, we're swinging the pendulum, but it will fully beat semiconductors again in 27, right?”
Coogan: AI providers will eventually pay Apple to route search queries
“Now my real hot take is that I think it's going to flip at some point. And I think Google or someone else is going to pay Apple To route LLM queries to them, because with the universal commerce protocol, agentic commerce protocol with ads and LLM responses, th…”
Coogan: Netflix Will Ultimately Win Bidding War for Warner Bros. Discovery
“I feel like it's going to land with Netflix.”
Coogan: Space Data Center Capacity Will Remain Under 1GW by 2027
“I would probably say like, There will be under one gigawatt of capacity in space by the end of 2027.”
Nadella: Technology will grow to 10-15% of total GDP within a decade
“And if you ask me five years from now, 10 years from now, is that percentage going to be higher or lower? I think the answer is pretty straightforward. It's going to be higher. It's just a question. Is it going to be 10 or 15?”
Karp: Palantir will extract considerably more revenue per client
“We believe we're going to make more from people in the future than in the past. Sizibly more because it's like, why should we not capture part of the value that we help create?”
Hays predicts China will beat NASA to the Moon this decade
“So it's now probable that China will quote unquote beat NASA back to the moon this decade and win at least the initial heat of this new space race.”
Andreessen: AI training data disputes must be solved by Congress
“In the case of training data, I think that there, I mean, there's a bunch of these copyright, you know, kind of lawsuits happening right now. There's, you know, the big New York Times opening, I won, and there's, you know, been a bunch of others. I think in th…”
Andreessen: Supreme Court will decide if AI chats get Fourth Amendment protection
“On the on the privacy thing. I think that, that one feels like it's a Supreme court thing. To me, it feels like that's the kind of issues that the Supreme court and the, in other words, like whether, for example, your Transcripts are considered your property a…”
Coogan: No new chip architecture will displace Nvidia GPUs or Google TPUs
“It doesn't seem like there's some new disruptive chip architecture that's gonna come out and obviate the need for both NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs, and so Google's very well positioned”
Huberman: MDMA will ultimately receive FDA approval for PTSD
“So I think ultimately it will be approved.”
Huberman: Neuralink will solve paralysis
“I fully believe that Neuralink is going to solve paralysis. I really do. I'm not saying that cause we're on exits. I know the head neurosurgeon there, they're well on their way.”
Asparouhov: Starlink Revenue Will Pass NASA's Budget Within Two Years
“Starlink's total top line revenue is going to be passing the NASA budget in the next year or two.”
Armstrong: Majority of Global Payments Will Run on Crypto Rails
“Crypto's gonna update the entire financial system globally, and, like, the majority of all payments will run on these crypto rails.”
Armstrong: Most traditional securities will be tokenized on-chain within five years
“So I actually think, like, most traditional securities are going to get tokenized on chain in the next five years.”
Armstrong: Most traditional securities will tokenize on-chain within five years
“So I actually think like most traditional securities are going to get tokenized on chain in the next five years.”