Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
AI will undoubtedly lead to fewer software engineering jobs, says Lynch
“So what does that mean if you're a software engineer? It means there's gonna be fewer jobs, aren't you? Without a doubt. Fewer jobs. For now.”
Assertion Supported
Lynch replaced every single Condé Nast executive except Anna Wintour
“You know, other than Anna Wintour, every other executive has turned over since I joined the company. Every single one. And I did most of it immediately.”
Insight
Lynch: The era of search and social traffic arbitrage is over
“That was a business that did very well. They were very innovative around a different era of the internet and you could take search traffic and social media traffic and turned it into commerce dollars or other things. That era is gone.”
Disclosure
Lynch instructed Condé Nast brands to plan for near-zero search traffic
“So last year I told our teams, assume there's no search. You have to have your businesses planned as if search is zero. We don't expect it to be zero, but we, you know, we expect it to be a single digit percentage of our traffic, very low.”
Disclosure
Lynch: Condé Nast eliminated departments after restructuring tech around AI
“We just, you know, last month made big changes in that org, really centered around how we use AI at the core of, not our content, but how we develop technology and products. So, you know, the result of that is there were whole departments that we no longer nee…”
Opinion
Pandora's algorithms still outperform Spotify for passive listening, says Lynch
“And to me, you know, I still listen to Pandora, I also listen to Spotify, but when I want something just to put something on, And let it play. I'll go to Pandora because I think those algorithms still outperform.”
Disclosure
Lynch: Condé Nast Will Always Rely on Human-Created Content
“We're going to always have human created content. First of all, I think it's what our, I know it's what our audiences expect and want. Secondly, we have no competitive advantage over just creating AI-generated content. There's, that doesn't leverage any of the…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Fewer Media Outlets Will Survive AI-Era Industry Changes
“There's gonna be fewer places that can do that. Because the ones that are more marginal may not survive the changes that are happening.”
Insight
Lynch: Journalists building personal profiles is good for business
“Definitely not one size fits all, but we do know that, you know, journalists that are able to build profiles for themselves tend to be good for business. So we certainly support that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Search traffic fell faster than Condé Nast's forecasts for three years
“Each of the last three years, we would do our budgets, we'd put some forecasts in of search traffic declining, you know, why? Just because we'd seen the pattern of algorithm changes, and generally those algorithm changes were negative. They had negative impact…”
Disclosure
Lynch: Condé Nast cut tech teams to 3 people, tripling their speed
“These teams that were 10 or 12 people became three or four people, and they moved at three times the speed.”
Assertion Supported
Twenty-somethings buy as much vinyl as older demographics, often without players
“Now there's as many people in their twenties buying them as there are people in their fifties or sixties buying them. A lot of people in their twenties don't even own a record player. They buy the vinyl records.”
Insight
Lynch: Big tech companies will dominate non-exclusive content
“Non-exclusive content was going to be dominated by big tech companies. You know, music, films, TV, whatever.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: The New Yorker Sees Subscriptions Spike From Deep Investigative Pieces
“When we come out with these really deeply researched investigative pieces that, you know, we have a huge army of fact checkers at the New Yorker that Comb through every single word so that when it is published, it has really, really been thoroughly fact checke…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Vogue grows revenue and profit every year of his tenure
“Vogue has grown every year. I've been at the company. It grows revenue, grows profitability every year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Condé Nast owners never interfered in seven years
“That, you know, I've been at the company house seven years and not once have they ever called to interfere with anything we do.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lynch: Condé Nast subscriber retention improved despite material price hikes
“We have raised prices on subscriptions fairly materially over the last couple of years. And you know, each year we think, okay, we're raising the price. We're going to, the retention is going to go down and actually the retention has gone gotten better every s…”
Insight
Lynch: Modern media must be authoritative giants or paid niche leaders
“Where, Publications can get hurt is if they're caught in the middle. If you try to be too broad, too large of an audience, this is not the era for that. You know, five years ago maybe that worked, but not today. You either need to be large and authoritative in…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lynch: Vogue readers directed backlash at magazine over AI-model ad
“You know, last June, there was an ad that was run in Vogue print magazine, and the ad used an AI generated model. And it blew up. But people who were angry, they were angry a little bit at the advertiser. They were mostly angry at Vogue.”
Assertion Supported
Lynch: Recorded Music Revenue Only Recently Recovered to 1999 Peak
“It's only just gotten back to the size it was in 1999, you know, 27 years later.”
Assertion Supported
Lynch: Vinyl Record Sales Have Grown Every Year for 18 Years
“Vinyl records have grown every year for the last 18 years. And sales of vinyl records.”
Insight
Lynch: Musicians Now Release Records to Drive Live Concert Ticket Sales
“It used to be, you know, in the nineties and eighties and everything, people would go on tour to support their record sales, and now it's the reverse. You release the record so you can go on tour and sell tickets.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pitchfork accounts for just 1% of Condé Nast's total revenue
“We have smaller niche brands pitchfork and music brand. Very small. It's one percent of our revenue.”
Disclosure
Lynch: Condé Nast to launch creator commerce marketplace VET
“We announced a, it'll be launching soon, an initiative we announced last year called VET, which is really at the intersection of You know, certainly e-commerce growth, social commerce in particular, and the creator economy. And so, what VET is, you know, we ha…”
