The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,419 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hays: All Windsurf Employees Receive Accelerated Vesting in Cognition Acquisition
“This transaction is structured that 100% of Windsurf employees will participate financially. They will also have all their vesting cliffs waived. And we'll receive fully accelerated vesting for their work today.”
FDA authorized Juul via Marketing Granted Orders after net positive health review
“The FDA has issued marketing granted orders. These are MGOs. We'll get into this, but it's, like, slightly different than, like, FDA approval for a drug for the Juul system, recognizing that these products, as appropriate for the protection of public health, t…”
DiRico: Rainmaker's July 2 flight released 70g silver iodide and 500g salt
“On July second, we conducted 1:19 minute cloud seeding flight where we released about 70 grams of silver iodide and 500 grams of salt, table salt. That was released at about 1600 feet above ground level into two clouds that dissipated over the course of two ho…”
Prince: Anthropic is 30,000x and OpenAI 750x harder than Google for traffic
“As you looked at open AI, it was about 750 times harder than with the kind of Google of old to get traffic with something like anthropic is 30,000 times harder.”
Prince: Iran is targeting US financial and infrastructure firms with cyber attacks
“We're starting to see that Iran is targeting other other largely U.S. Financial services firms critical infrastructure firms to try and see, to sort of try and strike back from what is you know, how, how do they strike back against the US in a way that that, t…”
Coogan: OpenAI Recalibrates Compensation to Fight Meta Poaching While Balancing Fairness
“Chen promised that he was working with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and other leaders of the company around the clock to talk to those with offers, adding, we've been more proactive than ever before. We're recalibrating comp and we're scooping out creative wa…”
Huberman: Trump administration proposed capping university indirect costs at 15%
“Earlier this year, the Trump administration said, We're cutting that to 15% across the board for all universities”
Huberman: Data shows microdosing psilocybin lacks major effects on depression or PTSD
“The data on microdosing psilocybin Are basically clear that it's not known to have any major effect on major depression or some of the other things that psilocybin is being tested for clinically including major depression, PTSD, et cetera.”
Coogan: OpenAI secured a $200 million contract with the US DoD
“They scored a two hundred million dollar US defense contract. So they're working with the DOD.”
Huberman: Microdosing psilocybin has no major therapeutic effect on depression
“The data on micro dosing psilocybin are basically clear that it's not known to have any major effect on major depression. Or some of the other things that psilocybin is being tested for clinically including major depression, PTSD, et cetera.”
Meta is buying a 49 percent stake in Scale AI for $15B
“Meta is paying fifteen billion. I thought it was 1415, something like that for a 49% stake in scale AI that pays out investors and employees. CEO Alex Wang is leaving to join Meta and head up a super intelligence lab.”
Dixon: Monthly stablecoin volume reached around $2T, surpassing Visa
“So like last month, it was something like two trillion in stable coin volume, which is more than trillion with a T, which is more than Visa.”
Armstrong: Fairshake PAC Raised Hundreds of Millions with 2M Crypto Advocates
“We had like two million Advocates who raised their hand in the US saying they wanted to elect a pro crypto Congress and candidates. We had like a couple hundred million dollars in the fair shake super pack.”
Coogan: DOGE Claims $175 Billion in Federal Savings Since Inauguration
“Doge said it had saved the government, one hundred and seventy-five billion from a combination of asset sales, contracts, lease, and grant cancellations, workforce reductions, and other moves made since January twentyth inauguration.”
Dixon: Monthly Stablecoin Volume Hit $2 Trillion, Surpassing Visa
“So like last month, it was something like two trillion in stable coin volume, which is more than trillion with a T, which is more than Visa.”
Tan: The federal government has 4.5M credit cards for 2M employees
“So there's 4.5 million cardholders in the federal government. There's only two point something million employees.”
Kovacevich: FTC and DOJ divided Big Tech targets rather than subject matter
“What happened was about six years ago, the FTC and the Justice Department, they share responsibility for antitrust. They got together and they said, they basically struck a deal and they said, okay, FTC, you get Meta and Amazon and DOJ, you get Google and Appl…”
Biden's AI diffusion rule forced Middle East to pick US over China
“The diffusion rule that the Biden administration put out at the very end was really a play to force them to pick sides. And basically the deal was like, look, if you want access to the future, if you want access to compute, then you really got to play ball wit…”
Langtry: Texas and Utah are suing the NRC over SMR regulation
“Texas and Utah that are suing the NRC to try and get regulatory control over small modular reactors.”
Asparouhov: Congressional reconciliation bill considers $150B to $200B defense budget boost
“There's been talk of that reconciliation bill being a 150 to 200, you know, sort of billion, which obviously gets, you know, sort of the total last year bill, you know, pretty close to that, you know, sort of trillion dollar mark.”
Kilpatrick: AI models now outperform humans on most vision tasks
“If you look at like multimodal, like the fact that the models can like with better, better than just from a multimodal input perspective, better than humans are at like most vision tasks, like The number of products and like things that that unlocks is like tr…”
Kilpatrick: Gemini 2.5 Pro Relied on Pre-Training Innovations, Not Just RL
“But I think if you look at like a, an example of this in practice, like 2.5 pro is actually an example where it wasn't just like RL scaling that made that model better. Yes, RL was part of the story, but like there was also a bunch of pre-training innovation a…”
Columbia suspended Roy Lee for a year after his Amazon interview stunt
“Amazon reported me to Columbia. Amazon is mad. Columbia is mad. And this ends up being a spat that I sort of publicize on my Twitter. It becomes this big spectacle and I eventually get kicked out of Columbia or suspended for a year. And I'm blacklisted from mo…”
Hammond: Nvidia continually circumvents export controls with sub-threshold chips like the H20
“Every time we introduce an expert control, NVIDIA's two weeks later has a new chip that just gets under the line of what's being controlled. And the latest one is the H-Twenty.”
Hammond: China Has Decisively Leapfrogged the US in Battery Technology
“Yes, we have the data centers and the better models, but China, you know, has the batteries, right? They have like that. That's one area where they have leapfrogged us and whether it's electric vehicles or robotics or drones, like we need to have our own batte…”
Hudson: Affiliate networks enforce stand-down policies preventing extensions from stealing creator attribution
“There is stand down policies at all of the, at almost all of the networks where downloadable software tools, toolbars browser extensions are required by the affiliate network. Who's mediating all these like multi-party exchanges are required to stand down to t…”
Swyx: AI Autonomous Task Horizon Doubles Every 3 to 7 Months
“METER put out a study of the agentic work that can be done you know, by a wide range of benchmarks and dated it, ran it all the way back to 2019, and basically came out with the idea that the agent horizon for the 50% capability, like, 50 percentile capability…”
Scott Wu predicts AI will win IMO gold in 2025 or 2026
“I think it's probably gonna happen this year. And if not this year, then next year.”
Knoop: ARC Saw No Progress Despite 50,000x Model Scaling
“Surprise that it basically hadn't, and not only hadn't been beaten, there'd basically been no progress in it which I thought was really fascinating given the fact that we've like scaled up these language model systems by almost like 50,000 times over the last,…”
Knoop: Pure LLMs Score 0% and o1 Scores 1% on ARC-AGI-2
“Pure LLM systems are scoring like zero percent now again on on arc B two single COT systems like R one and O one score like one percent.”
Handmer: Solar on 6% of Earth Could Provide US-Level Energy Globally
“In terms of energy we can give every man, woman, and child on Earth the amount of energy we enjoy here in the United States, which is about 20 barrels of oil per person per year with something like six percent of Earth's surface under solar, which is, It's a, …”
Doricko: Decades of studies show no health impacts from cloud seeding silver iodide
“People have done 80 or 30 or 50 years, depending on the watershed, studies on the concentration of silver iodide that ends up in the water and the soil. And after decades of operation, you only see parts per trillion of this stuff. Like, you need super sophist…”
Doricko: Silver iodide is less toxic by lethal dose than table salt
“If you think about the, like, LB-fifty, like the lethal dose of silver iodide, it's less than salt. It's less than table salt. It's milligrams per kilogram with salt, and then it's 2800 for silver iodide. So this is like a resoundingly safe material to be usin…”
Schneider: Huawei stockpiled AI chips made at TSMC using shell company
“Huawei was able to manufacture an enormous amount of chips at TSMC by basically creating a shell company, TSMC you know, deciding to look the other way about some Chinese firm manufacturing all these AI chips, and then the US government catching them and be li…”
Sadeghi: 23andMe is not HIPAA compliant
“One of the most shocking things about 23 means is it's actually not HIPAA compliant, right? It doesn't follow the gold standard clinical regulations that ensure your data is safeguarded.”
Masad: Replit deployed the first AI agent capable of full-stack app creation
“We were the first agent in the market to be able to Configure services, databases, deployment, and go all the way to deploying deploying an app and it kind of transformed our business just in the past seven months.”
Stebbings: Endowment pullbacks will severely reduce new VC fund managers in 2025
“When I speak to a lot of endowments today, they're simply not adding new managers, and they're even trimming their existing, and so I think that's bluntly gonna really impact the amount of new managers that we see this year.”
Jake Adler Cut Holes in His Legs to Demo Wound-Healing Tech
“So on limited time, I had to cut holes in my legs on camera to demonstrate the rapid healing abilities of one of our composites.”
Asparouhov: China Copied Falcon 9 Designs But Still Cannot Land Rockets
“If you look at the, you know, sort of Chinese rockets, they look a hell of a lot like the Falcon nines. And they're still not landing.”
Mercor scaled from $1M to $100M in revenue in two years
“And then fast forward two years, we scaled from one to a hundred million in revenue, and so we're only 21 and running this really exciting company that's working with most of the most prominent companies in Silicon Valley.”
Weisenthal: FTC Chair Ferguson is keeping Lina Khan's merger guidelines
“And it's interesting because he's keeping Lena Khan's merger guidelines in place.”
Steinman: Twitter buyout documents revealed foreign intelligence operated inside the company
“I mean, you can read the papers that came out of like the Twitter buyout, you know, transition to X, and they basically are like, yeah, we had foreign intel services, foreign governments, like operating inside
You know, ex formerly known as Twitter.”
Asparouhov: DOGE fired NOAA sensing team, then rehired them a week later
“They laid off a bunch of, like, the NOAA commercial, remote commercial sensing team, and then there was a huge, you know, sort of backlash, and so some of those people got rehired, like, a week after getting fired by, you know, sort of Doge and crew.”
Lessin: MrBeast spent more on his Amazon show than his $100M deal
“Like, you know, the, you know, everyone's excited that he gets a hundred million dollar Amazon contract, but then he spends more than that on the show, right?”
Hays: Humanoid Robot Startup Raising at $40B With One Customer
“And we got humanoid robot companies with one customer raising at forty billion.”
Petersen Predicts US Tariffs Will Expand Beyond China and Vietnam
“I would predict, and I don't have any evidence for this, but my intuition tells me I would predict some tariffs on other countries besides just Vietnam, that a lot of these people think they have a safe haven for their products, but maybe we'll wake up to a ru…”