Samuel Hammond, Chief Economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, discusses semiconductor export restrictions and tech company compliance on TBPN.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hammond: AI will deflate US knowledge work while China automates manufacturing
“The last 40 years we've specialized in, you know, higher education, knowledge work, legal management services, Hollywood, you know, the creative class, all this stuff that is going to like be deflated and China will have the factories that will become fully au…”
Opinion
Hammond: Failing to enforce the TikTok ban is Trump's most unconstitutional act
“The biggest, the most unconstitutional thing he's done today is not enforce the TikTok ban. Cause that was a direct, you know, statute that Congress passed that said that shall ban TikTok.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hammond: Abruptly resetting global trade imbalances will crash stocks and real estate
“If you do this all at once, what that means is the entire floor will fall out of the stock market and the real estate market. And, you know, with huge cascading effects through emerging calls.”
Opinion
Hammond: China distorts trade via suppressed consumption and overproduction, not currency
“China was a currency manipulator through throughout a lot of the 2000 and early 20 tens, but it really, that really hasn't been the main way that they cheat. They cheat by basically suppressing household consumption and, you know, having these 60% saving or sa…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hammond: AI systems will swamp all other economic issues by 2029
“In four years we're going to have such powerful AI systems that like really it swamps everything else.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hammond: China added 446 GW of power last year versus US net zero additions
“China added 446 gigawatts of energy last year. It was a 20% year over year increase. They're going to do that again this year. We added zero net new energy. We had a lot of renewables, but it came directly out of coal and other sources.”