why aren't all 495 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Senra: Michael Moritz wrote a secret biography of Don Valentine for Sequoia
“There's a secret biography written by Michael Moritz of Don Valentine that's passed around in Sequoia and Sequoia founders have it too.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Only about 330,000 podcasts published an episode in the past month
“Even now, that's what, eight years later, there's like only like 333,330 thousand podcasts that have uploaded a new episode in the last month.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Charlie Munger only gave outside money to Li Lu
“He only let one other person run, one other outsider manage Munger family money.
That was a Leeloo.
And he said in nine, nine, once in 95 years, he gave money to an extra, to an outside person.
He's like, can Leeloo.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Charlie Munger turned one Barron's magazine idea into $400M via Li Lu
“I read Barron's Magazine for
40 years for 50 years, I found one idea I could act on in that 50 years of reading that magazine.
I made forty million, no, I made eighty million dollars on that, Charlie, Charlie speaking, Charlie's like, I made eighty million dol…”
Assertion Supported
Senra: An investor put $150M into Brad Jacobs after hearing Founders podcast
“He's like, he heard about Brad Jacobs by listening to that episode and goes to meet him. They get, they hit it off. He hears about Brad's idea for his new company, XPO, I think it's called. He winds up investing a hundred and fifty million dollars to joining t…”
Assertion Supported
Courtney: Skool acquires SaaS customers using top-of-funnel webinar challenges
“They're using the classic challenge funnel to fill up school and get people creating new schools and paying for new schools all the time. And they use a webinar as at the very top of that challenge funnel.”
Prediction Held up
Cursor will support reading web views by the end of 2025
“My prediction is by the end of the year it will, but Cursor doesn't see your web view, and so you need to give it all of the information that you see, and the more correct information you give it, the better.”
Assertion Supported
YouTube Commands 33% of Streaming Watch Time Among US Children
“Total market share of the streaming market for the U S as a total number is about. YouTube, 10 or 11%. I've seen it get as high as 13%. With two to eleven-year-olds, it's 33%, so that's 33% of basically what they're watching is, is YouTube”
Assertion Supported
MrBeast's Exaggerated Golden Jet Thumbnail Still Drove Over 200M Views
“Like the world's biggest creator, Mr. Beast, like he'll make a video on like one dollar versus a hundred million dollar private jet. In the thumbnail, there's a solid gold jet. Like it's just solid gold. The whole thing's made of gold. That didn't happen in th…”
Assertion Supported
Using AI to Generate YouTube Thumbnails Does Not Violate Platform Terms
“Using AI and thumbnails is not against YouTube's terms, contrary to popular belief.”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: Daily UGC video creators cost roughly $1,000 per month
“You can get creators right now where they do like a post a day. It'll cost you about a grand a month. They do a video a day and they cross posted across all the accounts.”
Assertion Supported
Hudack: Monzo's top pre-COVID revenue stream was overseas debit interchange fees
“Our number one revenue stream was actually people using their debit cards overseas, and the interchange you get from that, and that went away overnight, and we were totally screwed.”
Prediction Held up
Ras Mike: AI Coding Platforms Will Add Direct BaaS and Stripe Integrations
“So they're going to have templates and integrations. So integrations with like these backend as a services, and then an integration directly with Stripe. So setting up payments, few prompts, setting up authentication, whatever, few prompts.”
Assertion Supported
Chou: OnlyFans revenue primarily comes from backend chat upsells
“Majority of AI sorry, the only fans revenue from creators right now, isn't from the subscription. It's always from the upsell in the backend. And it's always from chatting.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Sentry is valued at $3B with nine figures in ARR
“Sentry, a lot of people don't know this, but Sentry is like a three billion dollar company. I think they do like nine figures and ARR, like it's a big business.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Y Combinator funded its first defense tech cruise missile startup
“Famously Y Combinator just had their first defense tech company. It's a cruise missile company”
Assertion Supported
Simons: Users have launched full-stack production apps with Stripe and Supabase via Bolt
“We have people that have launched real products just using Bolt at this point where they're like taking Stripe for, you know, subscriptions and like using Supabase to authenticate and like, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You can a hundred percent buil…”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: YouTube business content average RPM is $5 to $7
“And if say, for example, you're doing business content, average RPM. So Views or revenue per thousand views is about like five to seven dollars depending.”
Assertion Supported
Lacy: It takes only 10,000 sales to hit NYT Bestseller List
“It only takes 10,000 books to get on the New York Times bestseller list.”
Assertion Supported
Wilkinson: Robot lawnmowers achieve ROI payback within 6 to 12 months
“If you get solar panels, you're looking at like a 10 to 20 year payback, depending on where in the world you live. And a robot mower can pay itself off in like six to 12 months, pretty much, which is pretty crazy.”
Assertion Supported
Chaudry: Ryan Trahan shoots mostly solo on an iPhone, averaging 10M+ views
“One of the most prolific creators on YouTube right now is Ryan Traham. He can't make a video that does under ten million views, but he shoots majority of his stuff with his iPhone and just by himself.”
Assertion Supported
Kim: Nikita Bier changed his mind on AI characters after seeing retention
“And what Nikita said in that tweet was that initially he thought like AI character chat apps were kind of a fad, but after seeing like a bunch of the retention graphs, he's like, okay, this is not going away.”
Assertion Supported
Josephs: Autopilot is first app enabling automated politician trade copying
“It's The first app that allows you to automatically copy politician stock trades.”
Assertion Supported
Josephs: Live shopping crushes it in Asia but has failed in America
“It crushes it in Asia, but it hasn't translated to America.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: MrBeast's manual enforces zero tolerance for lateness and excuses
“Late, the word late is not in his dictionary and this whole page really is about, you know, don't be late, and it's your fault, and you know, it's important to have bias for action, meaning it's important to actually go and do things that you said you were goi…”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: MrBeast's manual states his content's goal is to excite himself
“Is he says, what is the goal of our content? He, and Mr. Beast responds to excite me. The goal of our content is to excite me.”
Assertion Supported
Lou: Hidden surcharges can push total Stripe processing fees to 6%
“I think that's where I spent the most money in my business, like probably 5000 dollars a month. They got three percent for the cards, plus an extra one percent if the card is not from Europe, plus an extra one percent if you're charging another currency, and p…”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: 42% of Real Estate Investors Lost $200K+ on Single Deal
“Half, nearly half of real estate investors, 42% have lost 200,000 dollars or more on a single investment with 45% admitting a bad investment that has almost ruined them financially.”
Assertion Supported
Riley Brown: YouTube is starting to block third-party transcript APIs
“You can just like literally download your transcript or you could use a transcript API, but YouTube starting to block those.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Mentioning AI in product descriptions reduces consumer purchase intent
“A new study suggests artificial intelligence and product descriptions lowers purchase intent with implications not only for brands integrating AI, but of the wider category challenges of the technology faces, it has become widespread.”
Assertion Supported
James Clear and Tim Ferriss are building a new publishing product
“I believe that James Clear and Tim Ferriss are working on something as well that seems at least tangentially related to that.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Watch influencers Vukim and Buckley run $20/month trading community
“The way Vukum and Buckley built their business was they built an audience up top on TikTok and Instagram. Then they created a paid community called Vukum verified where you have to pay 20 dollars a month and other watch dealers and watch buyers can buy and sel…”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Codie Sanchez acquired an equity stake in Resi Brands
“Cody Sanchez bought a piece of Resi Brands.”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: Texas produces the most renewable energy in the US
“Texas is the leader right now. They're producing the most renewable energy in the U S and like historically, I mean, that is where oil comes from, right?”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Design Pickle generates approximately $30 million in annual revenue
“They probably do
you know, thirty million a year in, in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Courtney: Cultural nostalgia peaks between the ages of 10 and 20
“Basically the best stuff, the best movies, the best everything happens, happened sometimes between Sometime between when people are, like, 10 years old and 20 years old. So, nostalgia peaks somewhere in between 10 and 20. I think they, did they, like, bring it…”
Assertion Supported
Matty Mo: Artistic creation processes and techniques generally lack copyright protection
“Now you could do this without permission and just go out and do it because there's no real copyright on the process for the most part.”
Assertion Supported
Nicolas Cole: The gender split in gaming is now roughly fifty-fifty
“One of the growing trends in gaming is that more and more women are coming into the category. So it used to be, or at least the perception was, like, eighty-twenty, you know... And but now it's like fifty-fifty.”
Assertion Supported
Hutchins: On-Demand Paid Expert Advice Platforms Have Failed Every Time
“And this platform has failed every time. There's so many companies that have started this.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Pieter Levels' Therapist AI launched at $36,000 in ARR
“It's a therapist app that's making like 36,000 dollars a year and he just launched it like ARR.”
Assertion Supported
Yanowitz: Degen Layer 3 leads the Ethereum ecosystem in TPS
“And that the Degen chain L three is doing the most transactions per second in the entire Ethereum ecosystem today.”
Assertion Supported
Feroldi: The Motley Fool sends up to four emails daily per lead
“When you sign up for these Motley Fool funnels, you get up to four emails per day.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Adam Neumann is buying buildings directly for Flow instead of leasing
“Also, he's no longer doing long-term leases. He's buying the buildings.”
Assertion Supported
Tabah: Two Million Influencers Make Over $100K Annually
“The valuation of the influencer industry has 11 X'd in the last seven years. You know, two million influencers today generate over a 100,000 dollars a year at least, and then there's like a top cohort that's generating well over 500 K.”
Assertion Supported
Ries: Corporate venture capital is far more involved in AI than past eras
“You see a lot more involvement of corporate venture firms which
You didn't see before.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Most members in his founder group run offshoring agencies
“I feel like the majority of people in this group chat now have like offshoring agencies.”
Assertion Supported
Spotify indexes podcast episode descriptions, but Apple Podcasts only indexes titles
“Spotify will index your summary of your description of the episode, but Apple only indexes the title.”
Assertion Supported
Peter Attia replaces podcast ad fees by negotiating exclusive discounts for members
“I love what Peter Atiyah is doing... He flipped the model on its head and he says, Hey, pay to be a member of our podcast. And I'm going to go to all these brands and I'm going to say, Hey, I'm not going to charge you to, for me to promote... Funnel all the mo…”