The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 495 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sam Parr: Residential real estate barely beats inflation, returning 3.5% annually
“I believe the trailing hundred years, homes have grown something like three and a half percent a year, so they barely keep up with inflation, so I think homes are a wonderful place to Store value that keep up with inflation and they cause forced savings, but i…”
Miller: Y Combinator's ratio of B2B to B2C startups has skyrocketed
“If you look at the YC splits right now when I was working with YC when I was at AWS compared to now, the ratio of B to B versus B to C has skyrocketed. Like there's just not as many B to C companies in these incubators getting built.”
Greg Isenberg: AI Agents Will Soon Have Wallets to Execute Autonomous Transactions
“Well, we're moving into a future where agents are going to have wallets. They're going to have email addresses. And assuming that's true, and I think, you know, there's a good chance that that happen is happening happens because it's already starting to happen…”
Schneider: Meta's Andromeda Analyzes Multimodal Creative and Landing Pages
“So Andromeda is Facebook's new like ad algorithm, right? It basically, it decides what ads get shown to what people and how it functions is the AI is basically looking at the ad creative. And it's understanding, okay, like what is in this static ad? What is th…”
Dan Shipper: Codex Chronicle captures local screenshots for user context
“Like, one of the interesting things about Codex is it has this thing called Chronicle, which is it automatically takes screenshots of your computer and locally turns it into locally turns it into a, Feed that gives it context on who you are and what you're doi…”
Brown: Codex autonomously built and played its own chess game
“And so, in my video, it did this in one prompt. I said, build a chess game, then use browser use to test the game and play yourself until one team wins. And that's what it did in one shot”
Isenberg: Gartner projects AI agents will drive 20% of commerce by 2030
“I saw that Gartner had a research report that said, 20% of commerce will, on the internet by 20 30 will be agents, meaning like agents are buying things.”
Ross Mike: Agent skills load only metadata initially to conserve tokens
“What, when you create a skill.md file, what gets added into the context is actually just the name and the description. Right? The bunch of info doesn't get added. So imagine you have two sentences versus an agent.md that has like a thousand lines that get adde…”
AutoResearch requires an NVIDIA chip or cloud GPU, excludes M1 Macs
“You need a NVIDIA chip to actually run auto research, or you can do it in the cloud. I'll talk about this at the end of the episode, but you know, you do need that. You can't just run it on, let's say you have a Mac book M one or something like that.”
Schneider: Clay.com coined 'GTM engineering' for outbound data enrichment workflows
“So this is actually like made up by clay.com, which is hilarious. And they originally did it as like a way to explain somebody that like does basically like cascading workflows for like data enrichment to do outbound sales motions over email or slack, or, you …”
Chu: APlaceForMom.com takes first month's rent or fixed fees for referrals
“And they basically have all of these kind of sneaky ways to collect information and then pass them off to these senior living homes where they collect a portion of the first month's rent or like a fixed fee for every referral that they give.”
Remotion can programmatically generate 100 video ads from a single prompt
“It can do all of that programmatically. And you could create, like, a hundred videos with, literally with one prompt.”
Kevin Rose: Zero Intermittent Fasting App Generates Double-Digit Millions in Revenue
“When I made Xero the intermittent fasting app, I was like, I just want a way to track my fast and like have a silly little timer. And then, you know, the company's doing double digits, millions of dollars in revenue off of a little like timer app with some oth…”
Isenberg: Cal AI generates around $3 million per month
“You have the Cal AI guys doing like three million dollars a month and so many people copying it.”
Kilpatrick: Gemini 3.0 Pro latency roughly matches Gemini 2.5 Pro
“I think for folks, again, who have used 2.5 pro, I think three point O pro is like roughly on par from a latency standpoint. So there's no I think in some cases it's actually, it's a little bit higher latency, but obviously the model is much smarter.”
Isenberg: GenSpark costs $20 a month, uses fewer tokens than Manus
“GenSpark is kind of, you know, from a pricing perspective, it's kind of like a cheaper Manus. Like, I think it's like 20 bucks a month or something. And you know, it just eats up a lot less tokens than a Manus”
Multi-step AI video editing workflows will soon be baked into Sora
“I do think that, like, for everything I laid out, it's important for now, but it's gonna be baked into Sora's kind of suite, where you can edit clips, you can kind of double tap into this, and this entire process is gonna get, like, a lot faster and a lot chea…”
Schneider: Focus Tree scaled to two million users via creator marketing
“I know Lauren has like scaled from like zero to it's like two million users or something like that. Now. I don't know since the last time I talked to him, like where, where it's at, but this is how this can be used.”
Cheung: The Rundown Gained 150K+ Followers In One Year Using AI Avatars
“We started doing it and it's been under a year and we've grown to over a 150,000 followers.”
Isenberg predicts Cursor will eventually ship built-in stock agents
“In the future, you would think that a lot of these like agents, so to speak, would come like stock with cursor.”
Robinson: Linear uses Cursor agents to enforce a zero-bug policy
“They have a zero bug policy and they use cursor.
If you look, this is inside of linear.
Let's see if I can make this a little bigger.
maybe not.
Well PM reports a bug.
The AI categorizes it.
The engineer who's triaging just tells cursor, Hey, investigate this…”
Schneider: Google Ads exact match no longer limits to exact queries
“Exact match isn't actually exact match though on Google anymore. It used to be in the past. I could be like, anytime somebody searches this keyword, show my ad, they now technically expand the audience and it's total bullshit. I hate it.”
Isenberg: A 10-person billion-dollar company is probably being built right now
“I think the 10 person, one billion dollar company is probably coming you know, sooner than that. Well, you know, it's probably being built right now.”
Isenberg: Facebook Groups still has a billion active users
“There's still a billion active users in Facebook groups”
Schneider: Traditional UGC agencies charge $6,000 for five video ads
“I know there's some agencies that are UGC agencies that are traditional. They're using real humans and they're charging so much money for this like basically the creative development and, you know, six grand for five videos.”
Woodward: Google's Veo 3 adds sound to AI video generation
“Today's announcement is actually the ability to take this VO three model, which is unbelievable because it has incredible realism and physics and everything on the visual side, but it also adds sound. And so you can create these videos. They're 8:02 clips, sev…”
Isenberg: Claude uniquely supports MCPs and shareable Artifacts web apps
“You can use MCPs in Clode, and you can't use it in some of the other platforms, as well as Artifacts. Which are basically just shareable web web apps.”
GenSpark lacks self-serve cancellation, requiring an email or phone call
“I couldn't find a self-service cancellation option directly on GenSpark's website. And then it gives you email support and a phone number, and there's no self-service option.”
AI builders like Lovable and Cursor will adopt task-based UIs
“And the lovables and bolts and curses of the world are probably going to introduce a to-do list task-based UI in the future because it just kind of, it makes a lot of sense.”
Courtney: Shopify and Duolingo mandate AI proficiency for all hires
“Both Shopify and Duolingo came out saying basically all of the employees have to learn all the AI tools, plus they're not going to hire people who don't know how to use the tools anymore. So it's now an entry requirement.”
Brown: AI agents will assemble apps using UI component libraries
“And I think eventually AI agents will have access to component libraries like this, so they'll be able to just select, ah, really cool components like this and place them on your web apps, your mobile apps, ah, and things like that.”
API access will let marketers generate 100 ad variants in five minutes
“And when the API becomes generally available, this is going to be trivial. It's literally going to be like, This is your inspiration or like reference ad. These are all the different audiences, just like boom, boom, boom, smash them out and you'll have a hundr…”
Denk: Morning Brew's referral program drove over one million total subscribers
“I built the referral program back at morning brew that worked extremely well. It led to over a million subscribers from morning brew today.”
Isenberg: Apps like Cal AI are currently generating $20M ARR
“For example, the one, the flavor right now is Cal AI, you know, apps like that. Like those companies are doing like twenty million dollars ARR on, on downloading an app.”
Choi: Manus AI autonomously browses, researches, plans, and executes beyond coding
“This is a little bit different because it does more than just coding. It actually does the research. It actually goes to the browser, and it actually catches captures the information from there directly, and then it takes all that context into its planning, an…”
Choi: Manus AI Generates Project Architecture Without Requiring Boilerplate Templates
“Another cool thing about this is that you don't have to have a Like a project structure as you see on other tools, like where, you know, people say, go clone this, you know, template, you know, this boilerplate code, and you can use that to build your app and …”
Choi: Chinese AI Companies Like Manus Must Share Data With Government
“I think the, one of the biggest thing is that if you are a Chinese company I think you're obligated, obligated to give access to the government.”
Isenberg: Jenni AI's essay POV series generated over 300M views
“POV, you have an essay due. That video series has generated 300 plus million views overall.”
Finn: An Elon Musk retweet on X yields about 10 million impressions
“You get an Elon retweet that's getting 10, ten million impressions, right?”
Isenberg: Software is shifting from SaaS subscriptions to pay-per-use pricing
“So one of the things I've been noticing in software land at least is there's this shift from software as a service to pay per use.”
Isenberg: Perplexity's deep research completes queries faster than ChatGPT's
“Okay, so first things first is that perplexity is faster than ChatGPT. You can see that ChatGPT is about halfway done. Perplexity is done.”
Kilpatrick: Google AI Studio Offers 1.5 Billion Free Tokens for Gemini
“The API keys actually by default are also free, so you can get, like, 1.5 billion tokens using Gemini across a bunch of different models for free today.”
Chu: Atlas Obscura shows little effect from Google core updates
“Also noticing very little to no effect from the Google core updates.”
Isenberg: OpenAI Operator will eventually integrate native voice capabilities
“Yeah, I think I mean, it's only a matter of time, by the way, before operator adds voice anyways. They won't have to stitch it together with other voice agents.”
Fernando: DeepSeek R1 Is Open Source and on Par with OpenAI o1
“Like they've made it open source so that it's available for us to study but it's apparently also on par with ChatGPT's like O-one model, O-one's reasoning models.”
Fernando: DeepSeek's official apps and website route user data to China
“To start out to use these models, you have a couple of options and one is going directly to deep seek.com and this is actually currently hosted in China. So a little bit of a background here is that your computer is here. Like it was, for example, I'm in North…”
Fernando: DeepSeek via Fireworks costs $8/M tokens versus o1's $75
“I think it's about eight dollars per million tokens where normally I think ChatGPT was like 15 input and 60 dollars for output for O-one Pro.”
Fernando: GPT-4o natively understands audio and tone, unlike DeepSeek R1
“So one thing I just learned very recently about GPT-IV and ChatGPT's Omni models is the fact that this model's breakthrough, a little bit different than R-I, is the fact that it can actually understand audio and tone and all these extra implications that we do…”