The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 681 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Reports indicate AI software builder Lovable is raising at a $2B valuation
“Well, yesterday I think it was leaked that lovable is raising at a two billion dollar valuation.”
GenSpark reached $36M ARR in 45 days, adding almost $1M daily
“Then they launched the agent platform about two months ago. It hit ten million ARR in nine days. Now they're at thirty six million ARR in 45 days. They're basically adding almost a million dollars a day in ARR.”
Sam Altman predicts 'idea guys' will soon dominate the startup industry
“He just posted on his blog. He says for a long time, technical people in the startup industry Have made fun of idea guys. People who've had an idea and were looking for a team to build it. It now looks to me like they are about to have their day in the sun.”
Meng To: No other AI design tool offers real-time live previews
“And also I already had like the life The live preview as you generate. So nobody else has that, by the way. When you're generating, it's going to live preview everything you're doing. You don't have to wait like five minutes for something to show up.”
Content marketing pipelines will soon be fully automated end-to-end
“You know, end to end is coming. Like eventually this is going to be like fully automated where you enter your URL, it's finding the keywords, it's creating cross platform content, and that's just publishing it for you. So that's definitely in the future.”
Isenberg: Cal AI is generating $30M a year in revenue
“The popular example right now is like Cal AI. And I've had those guys on the podcast that they're doing thirty million dollars a year.”
Schneider: Major Record Labels Are Switching to Laylo
“All of the major record labels are switching to this right now.”
Al-Abdullah: Harvard study found equity grants do not increase performance
“Harvard did a study where they actually found no market increase in performance when they landed equity to individuals.”
Choi: Goli awards Teslas, BMWs, and Rolexes to top TikTok affiliates
“Now if you search like goalie creator prizes, they give away, they're giving away like insane prizes to top affiliates. To just basically have a monopoly on all the creators. So for example, they have these like, you know, if you sell 7000 dollars in GMV, you …”
Isenberg: MrBeast is raising $150M at a $1.5B valuation for CPG products
“Mr. Beast is raising a hundred and fifty million dollars at I think a 101.5 billion dollar valuation? And he's doing it to double down on his CPG products.”
Josephs: Autopilot planted a fake Nancy Pelosi at a UFC fight
“We literally did send a fake Pelosi to the fight. She was sitting there in the front row with Mike Malak. There's all these pieces of content around her. The New York post already kind of took it up. They created an article about it.”
Isenberg: MrBeast's leaked manual promises exceptional employees will get rich
“He basically says that he's going to make you rich. If you do well and you create, you know, you're exceptional at what you do you will be rich if you work for Mr. Beast, basically is what he's saying. And you'll make more money Than you could ever dream of ma…”
Goli offers Rolexes, Lamborghinis, and Miami condos to top TikTok Shop affiliates
“Their incentive package for affiliates going into Q four is insane. Well, I mean, my incentive package is basically if you generate enough GMV, like the market value of sales there, it's like Rolex, Lamborghini, a condo in Miami, night at Amangiri. Like that's…”
Isenberg: AI search engines like ChatGPT will embed interactive tools
“My prediction is tools will be embedded within a lot of these platforms.
So
Right now when you use perplexity or use ChatGPT, really what you're getting back is mostly texts. You know, sometimes you're getting some links or some images and over time what you'r…”
Schneider: Wind energy is now cheaper than natural gas
“It's already cheaper than natural gas and natural gas. It looks like can't go cheaper. So what's going to naturally happen in the market and solar still getting cheaper.”
Jason Calacanis invested in three Swell AI competitors that will all fail
“Jason Calacanis has invested in like three companies that are like exact competitors of us. And we're just laughing because I was like how many tap bats can you get with this? It's not going to work.”
Kagan bets his new DocuSign alternative will make $1M within a year
“And then I believe, I would bet, I'll bet a million dollars, it'll make a million dollars in a year.”
Smith: OpenAI has reached $1 billion in enterprise revenue
“There's the reason that OpenAI has a billion dollars in enterprise revenue today. Out of nowhere, quote unquote, out of nowhere.”
Rogenmoser: AI tools will connect multiple applications to perform complex workflows
“I think you're gonna see more tools that, that do work for you, and not just, like, generate text, but, like, you know, the interface would be more natural language on the front end where you're telling an app to do something, and then now, you know, it's goin…”
Spartz: Average person only comprehends 10% of podcast or book sentences
“I measure this quite a bit, and the average person is actually only listening to about 10% of all of the actual sentences. In a given podcast or book that they're reading.”
Spartz: Automated weapons systems have already taken over lethal decision-making
“There's tons of weapons systems you already have that like, there's no human that decides like the robots decide for us. Like they shoot down the missile before we even have time to react, you know? So we've already given up the Like kill switch to the machine…”
Rief: MrBeast's spin-off ventures will surpass $1B in cumulative value
“I think the cumulative enterprise value of what he creates will be well above a billion dollars.”
Dunn: Mood disorders affect approximately one in five entrepreneurs
“Three percent of the general population has some form of mood disorder, most commonly bipolar disorder. We think that index is seven to one in entrepreneurs. So we'd be talking about one in five”
Pal: Crypto hedge funds hold just $4B compared to $57B in VC
“VC space is crowded with fifty seven billion going in in the last 15 months. Hedge fund space, the entire size of the hedge fund space, four billion. There is, the secondary market in crypto is entirely starved of capital.”
Bloom: FTX reached agreement to acquire BlockFi for up to $240M
“FTX is now, you know, under a definitive agreement to acquire block five for like, I don't really care how, you know, the CEO positioned it, you know, with the revolving line of credit, that's not really enterprise value. It's not like buying the equity, but l…”
Goldberg: Insurance companies will not enter crypto due to volatility
“Insurance companies don't like insuring volatile things. Right. And so they're not going to move into the space, but I think the big question of like, how do we actually solve this problem is how do you assess the intrinsic value of a digital asset, which is a…”
Wolfe: Kurion technology removed 99% of radiation at Fukushima
“This thing that was just conceived In our New York office ended up removing 99% of the radiation from the Fukushima disaster, particularly around cesium and strontium”
Wolfe predicts the digitization of human scent and machine olfaction
“The digitization of human scent is coming.
Shazam for smell.
The ability to identify a single molecule in a room is coming.
The ability, not only a single molecule that has meaning to you.
I mean, literally a molecule, a structure actually conveys to you know,…”
Bloom: US Government Settled Ross Ulbricht's $193M Restitution Debt via Seized Bitcoin
“The U.S. Government has, like, basically secretly signed a deal with him that this one billion dollar bounty that they have found from a hack of the Silk Road, they are crediting towards his debts to the U.S. Government, and so he has now effectively paid back…”
Bloom: US real estate depreciation lets multi-millionaires pay zero income tax
“We have friends who are like literally making multiple millions of dollars of cash income a year and paying zero dollars in taxes because they have all this depreciation off their real estate portfolios. It's like a well-known loophole that was created by the …”
Bloom: Twitter's $25B Buyout Debt Carries Massive Interest Obligations
“There's twenty-five billion dollars of debt sitting on the business now, and that debt has interest rates on it that aren't super low. And in an environment where so far the, you know, the baseline rate is rising right now, it's actually going to be a shitload…”
Friedberg: Beverage industry generates 500 million tons of CO2 annually
“Consumers on Earth spend
A year.
Okay.
2.3 trillion dollars.
We consume something on the order of a hundred billion plastic, glass, cans, more than a hundred billion.
It's really hard to track all this stuff every year.
Most of which, 95% of which ends u…”
Isenberg: Meta stock will outperform over the next one to three years
“And I feel like, I don't know, a year, two, three years from now, like, I feel like they're gonna ship some stuff, and some of it's gonna work. So I'm a, I think I think the stock will outperform. That's what I think.”
Bloom: Only 2% of Spotify artists earn over $1,000 annually
“Only two percent of Spotify artists are earning more than 1000 dollars a year, and one 10th of one percent.1%, are earning over a hundred K per year.”
Finkelstein: Shopify GMV ranks second behind Amazon in US online retail
“If you pretend we were retailer, we would be the second largest online retailer in America after Amazon.”
Blizzard Nerfing a WoW Warlock Spell Inspired Vitalik to Create Ethereum
“Vitalik the creator of Ethereum he was a warlock in World of Warcraft, and Blizzard nerfing Siphon Life was one of the reasons that he decided to make Ethereum. He was like mad that the centralized group, like had the control to nerf something. So he was like,…”
Isenberg: Aaron Levie and Brian Chesky privately consider Web3 a sham
“You know, and we were talking about this earlier, like Aaron Aaron Levy and Brian Chesky were, are kind of talking about how web three is, you know, basically a sham. That's basically what they're saying.”
Bloom: Alexis Ohanian’s VC firm uses internal software Cerebro to gamify value-add
“Alexis Ohanian has at seven, seven, six, they have this internal proprietary software they built out called Cerebro. I think it's called like Star Trek reference that manages like all of their internal stuff. And one of the portals is this like value add, like…”
Ohanian: Reddit grew yearly for five years despite zero product investment
“Like, Reddit for five years between, I left in 2010, I came back in early, you know, late 14 as exec chair, had Almost no investment by con and asked in the product. The product didn't improve for half a decade, barely stayed online. Okay. There's no business …”
Sam Parr: Residential real estate barely beats inflation, returning 3.5% annually
“I believe the trailing hundred years, homes have grown something like three and a half percent a year, so they barely keep up with inflation, so I think homes are a wonderful place to Store value that keep up with inflation and they cause forced savings, but i…”
Greg Isenberg: Twitter Stock Will Be Flat at $43.57 in 2026
“And then, five years from now, I think it's exact, it's exactly where we are today. It's like, 43, 57, or whatever.”
Miller: Y Combinator's ratio of B2B to B2C startups has skyrocketed
“If you look at the YC splits right now when I was working with YC when I was at AWS compared to now, the ratio of B to B versus B to C has skyrocketed. Like there's just not as many B to C companies in these incubators getting built.”
Greg Isenberg: AI Agents Will Soon Have Wallets to Execute Autonomous Transactions
“Well, we're moving into a future where agents are going to have wallets. They're going to have email addresses. And assuming that's true, and I think, you know, there's a good chance that that happen is happening happens because it's already starting to happen…”
Schneider: Average LinkedIn CPM is around $22 per thousand impressions
“Like if you were paying for those impressions on platform, for example, on LinkedIn, it's like 22 dollars per thousand impressions is the average, right?”
Schneider: Meta's Andromeda Analyzes Multimodal Creative and Landing Pages
“So Andromeda is Facebook's new like ad algorithm, right? It basically, it decides what ads get shown to what people and how it functions is the AI is basically looking at the ad creative. And it's understanding, okay, like what is in this static ad? What is th…”
Dan Shipper: Codex Chronicle captures local screenshots for user context
“Like, one of the interesting things about Codex is it has this thing called Chronicle, which is it automatically takes screenshots of your computer and locally turns it into locally turns it into a, Feed that gives it context on who you are and what you're doi…”