The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,791 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ohanian: 90% of gamers will only play games that pay them
“In five years, no one, 90% of people will not play a game unless they are being properly valued for that time.”
Bloom: Terra Luna faces a real risk of a downward market spiral
“There's this swap mechanism where, If suddenly that yield starts to drop or if they're not able to maintain it, if people start selling rather than buying Luna, and if you have a bunch of people swapping It does create this market spiral, right? Like there is …”
Friedberg: Cellular agriculture will replace all animal agriculture this century
“There's a lot of engineering stuff we got to get over to make it work at scale, which there's about a 150 companies doing today, but they're going to succeed. And as a result, we're going to be able to replace all of animal agriculture this century.”
Isenberg: Top Marketing Engineers Will Make Millions of Dollars Annually
“Why in the original I said I think that there's going to be people make A million dollars doing this. And I actually think that's conservative. I think there will be versions of that, of the best marketing engineers making millions of dollars a year is because…”
Carson: AI agents will write, review, and ship 100% of code
“You will be using a software factory. Like, and what I mean is, the agents are going to be writing a hundred percent of your code, reviewing a hundred percent of your code, shipping a hundred percent of your code. Like, that's where we're going.”
Wilkinson: Basic businesses will be fully run by AI in 3-6 months
“And I think that we're probably three to six months out from being able to just can businesses off to AI to run at least basic businesses like this.”
Gaskill: People will stop using SaaS apps directly in favor of AI operating systems
“I think that everyone's gonna have, like, an AI operating system they work in, and everyone will just have personal agents and agents to manage each department of their company, and people won't actually use these apps anymore.”
Isenberg: AI Apps Owning Workflows and Network Effects Will Be Highly Valuable
“I think that you're discounting the opportunity that there is to actually create these, as you call it, flash in the pan apps to actually get data, to actually own the workflow, to actually create network effects. And I think that that those companies Provided…”
Isenberg: Top AI wrappers will survive OpenAI updates within 18 months
“There's, of course, going to be a bunch of startups that get hit by OpenAI and the foundational models in 12 to 18 months, but I think that, you know, the great AI wrappers are going to build valuable companies.”
Isenberg: Current LLMs will beat human beings on 95% of tasks
“Maybe this is obvious, but artificial intelligence is smarter than human beings. We're at a stage where human beings versus the current LLNs are gonna lose on 95% of tasks.”
Huber: AI will enrich business owners, not AI companies
“AI will definitely over time make the business owners more money, not necessarily the AI companies.”
Wilkinson: ChatGPT will eliminate software middlemen by building tools on demand
“For all tools basically all middlemen businesses are gone. And I believe fundamentally that we are all going to go to the search bar and the new search bar is ChatGPT and you're going to query it and ChatGPT will just build whatever you need or it'll hook into…”
Cole: Writers who do not learn AI orchestration will lose jobs
“Either you get on board with that and you become an orchestrator and editor in chief, or you don't have a job anymore.”
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
Postma predicts a one-person autonomous AI marketing agency could reach $1B revenue
“You could go into this and just basically build a marketing agency that scales to probably a billion dollar in revenue without having a single human sitting there. Just probably just one guy, which is managing all the terminal commands and checking if everythi…”
Podcasters have zero money: B2C podcast tools are a terrible business
“Podcasters have zero money. They're the worst people to sell to. There's all these companies that are raising money right now for like podcasting apps, like all of these tools. And I just am laughing in the background. Cause there's just, I know this industry,…”
Greathouse Fall: AI will not replace advertising copywriters due to editing needs
“This thing is not going to, you know, replace your advertising copywriter. It's not going to place your content writer. It's not going to place. Any of these things that people are so worried about because of the need for human kind of nudging and course corre…”
Phan: YouTube will acquire TikTok and IPO at $500B within 12 months
“I'm making a prediction. YouTube is going to buy TikTok. They're going to spin out YouTube. It's going to go public, five hundred billion dollar company. Done. Clip this. Editor, clip this for when this happens in the next 12 months.”
Spartz: Meaningful Chance Advanced AI Escapes Control and Kills Everyone
“There's a Meaningful chance that we are going to make AI so powerful that we will lose control of it. And if we lose control of it, there's all kinds of bad things that can happen, including us all dying.”
Spartz: In five years, 99.9999% of content will be AI-generated
“Five years from now, 99.9999% of all content will be created by AIs.”
Postma: Social Media Will Die in Five Years Due to AI
“I'm pretty sure. Like I think social media, how we know it is going to be dead in five years because everything is going to be fake. So either people are going to love it or no one's going to use it because it's going to be a black forest effect.”
Postma: On-the-Fly Personalized AI Content Will Replace Human Creators
“Well, but don't you think that in five years, hypothetically, Like, why do you need content creators if TikTok, TikTok already knows so well what you like, what is your interest? Like, why would you need content creators if the AI models are so fast and GPUs a…”
Postma: Blog Content Marketing Is Dead; Interactive Tools Now Win SEO
“I think if you're making blog posts now to rank to the number top of Google, like content marketing, you're done. You're fucked. But if you make tools and products and something like this, and that's how you rank on Google, I think you have future success.”
Pal: The entire financial system and securities industry will pivot to blockchain
“The entire financial system is going to pile capital into this space over time. Because of the supermassive black hole that it is when you've got all these network effects going on. And the fact that financial industry itself is going to pivot to blockchain te…”
Calacanis: Bitcoin will eventually be replaced by superior technology
“Bitcoin is a great technology. It's been proven pretty robustly over a decade, but it will be replaced by a better technology. All technologies replaced eventually by a better technology”
Bloom: Over 10 Years, I Back Do Kwon and Terra Luna
“I actually don't know where I would land on the bet for one year from now, but 10 years from now, I like I like the Duquan side of it.”
Friedberg: Terrestrial nucleosynthesis could become an industrial process within 150 years
“When you combine the unleashed energy potential of plasma fusion systems with the theoretical laboratory scale potential of nuclear synthesis that we see in labs today, And you fast forward a 150 years. I think it's theoretically feasible on a first principles…”
Demirors: Bitcoin's proof of work acts as a global money battery
“Proof of work in and of itself is actually, I think, going to be one of the things that brings humanity into a new age of energy production, right? Right because Bitcoin is effectively a money battery. It enables you to balance, like, power on the grid”
Isenberg: Hugging Face Is Currently Seeking a $13 Billion Acquisition
“I think they're trying to get acquired right now at thirteen billion dollars.”
Miller: Frontier AI models can now handle vague, open-ended autonomous prompts
“And seeing how Fable five and GPT 5.6 and that level model is reacting to that vague flavor of prompt. Like you could, you couldn't do this a year ago. Now you absolutely can.”
Schneider: Autonomous agents can now run entire Facebook ad campaigns end-to-end
“You can make an agent entirely run Facebook ads now. And I'm talking about like, it is researching the pain points. It is researching the outcomes of your target customer. It's making creative that's on brand, both statics and also like AI avatar UGC. It's pub…”
Schneider: AI agent systems reduce 100-ad Facebook setups to 90 minutes
“If I wanted to go and create a hundred ads, right. And get that into Facebook ads, like that is probably like two weeks of work, right? Historically. And now you as a founder, like literally in the next hour and a half, you can have this whole system that I ju…”
Carson: AI engineering token costs will hit $5,000 monthly per employee
“I think all of us are in a place where we, we're getting to the spot where it's realizing, okay, for real engineering work per employee, you're looking at probably five grand a month. Like, that's probably where we're gonna shake out here.”
Dan Shipper: Users can feed video into Codex to recreate apps
“But honestly, you can literally just feed this video into codex and just be like, make something like this and it will do that.”
Shipper predicts OpenAI and Anthropic launch agent app stores within a year
“And I bet you within a year the opening eyes in the anthropics of the world will have app stores for apps that are built specifically to be used inside of these services. Maybe even cursor too. I don't have any insight on any of this.”
US government letter forced Anthropic to shut down Claude Fable 5
“Then Friday at five 21 PM, the US government sent Anthropic a letter. And by Friday night, the model was gone. Disabled.”
Finn: Hardware bottlenecks and soaring memory costs will persist long-term
“My, kind of thesis, which I think is playing out in front of us right now is we're going to have hardware bottlenecks for a very long time now because the AI build out's happening. And so memory sky, I just bought a memory card for my Nintendo switch to cost m…”
Wilkinson: Built and Runs a SaaS Business Entirely Autonomously via OpenClaw
“And so as a test, before I started doing this in our operating businesses, I basically built a business a SaaS business, and then I've been running it entirely autonomously using OpenClaw.”
Wilkinson: Customer support will not be a human job very soon
“Like support to me is not a job very, very soon.”
Wilkinson: Anthropic and OpenAI will soon launch AI CEO products
“My, I mean, my kind of belief is like pretty soon Anthropic and OpenAI are gonna launch like basically like CEOs. So you just be like, I'm just gonna hire a CEO for my company. Give me your data. I'll figure it out. I'll run it. I'll run the whole business.”
Wilkinson: Software Will Face Extreme Pricing Pressure Like Restaurants
“I think pricing pressure is just gonna go crazy because it's like the restaurant industry. Like, you know, restaurants are not a bad business. They're bad because there's too much competition.”
Liu: OpenAI and Anthropic have over $80 billion in combined revenue
“Take opening Ionanthropic alone, right? Let's just say they have a combined revenue probably of like eighty million plus, right? Or eighty billion, sorry, plus right now up from like basically zero a few years ago.”
Liu: AI models will never have infinite context windows due to physics
“I just don't think we're ever going to get to a point to where like a, an AI model can like have infinite context window. Right. And I think there's like a physics to that, right? Like you could just literally only have so much attention on like so much, you k…”
Riley Brown: OpenAI consolidated efforts to integrate Atlas browser inside Codex
“Well, recently they had like this big red alert at their company, and they decided to kind of push all of their efforts into one single app, which was Codex. And now what they're doing is they're just putting Atlas inside. They're basically putting Atlas insid…”
Brown: AI will control browsers as well as humans within three months
“Cause this is not a year from now. This is like three months away. AI will be able to control any browser like as good of a human.”
Brown: Codex can generate complete working mobile apps from one prompt
“For this, for now, you still need to have a Mac, and you need to have Xcode downloaded, but it can one-shot mobile apps, like full mobile apps.”
Ross Mike: LLMs degrade in performance once context fills past 70-80%
“Cause the model will get dumb as the context window closes, right? So if you have like a context window and I can draw this out, if this is your context window and like the optimal is You're between, like, there's always, like, maybe, like, 10% is already fill…”