The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 895 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Goldstein: Competitor weaponized the government by framing Archer engineer as a spy
“If, in America, I didn't think it was possible for a competitor to weaponize the government to come after you. And we saw that. It was unbelievable. It was you know, one of my engineers was set up to look like he was like a Chinese spy, and it was totally fake…”
Monroe-Anderson: Very few defense tech startups have deployed meaningful equipment in Ukraine
“And there's very few defense tech startups that have a meaningful amount of equipment deployed in Ukraine. Like you can just go down the list and see.”
Tony Kim: AI compute requires $10 trillion in CapEx over five years
“So this is the irony of it all, that we're, the trillion dollars of CapEx this year, and the 10 trillion over the next five years that are coming,
Is to move data centimeters and millimeters.
That's AI.”
Friedberg predicts the US faces tyranny or anarchy within two years
“Because otherwise you are going to have tyranny slash anarchy, which are both basically the same happening over the next couple of years in the United States.”
Patel: Open-source AI is dying as Chinese labs shift to licensing
“The theme here is that all, like, there's multiple Chinese model labs who are telling all the inference guys, hey, yeah, yeah, our next model's not gonna be open source, we're gonna license it to you. So open is, is dying quickly, unfortunately.”
Grinberg: 90% of AI tokens will use open models within 12 months
“My hottest take is that in the next 12 months, 90% of tokens will be going to open models.”
Banister: China will train AI on Western IP and sell output back
“And then what's really going to happen is China will sell our art back to us. So they're going to steal it all anyway, because they don't care. And they're just going to basically come back to us with these models, which we've seen with DeepSeek and everything…”
Miller: Top-quartile late-stage venture returns will soon match early-stage returns
“The returns in the private market at the late stage are actually going to start matching the returns at the early stage. If you look at top quartile performance of early stage funds versus late stage funds, I think they're going to be pretty close to each othe…”
Armstrong: AI will not cause high unemployment
“I'm in the camp of people who don't think AI is going to actually cause high unemployment. I think that employment will be about the same.”
Gil Feig: Custom agent harnesses and workflow builders will become obsolete very soon
“You see a lot of people trying to build, like, a custom harness, or, You know use something like a workflow builder to build agents that are repeatable and all of that. And I just ultimately think none of it matters because we're almost at the point now where …”
Tandon: VC-backed AI point solutions will die within three years
“There's a lot of nonsense GPT wrapper businesses out there right now. I won't say them by name. Maybe I'll say them by name later, but the, you know, they grew fast. They got a lot of VC interest, but they're going to be gone in three years because companies l…”
Adcock: Figure demonstration robots run purely autonomously with onboard Helix AI
“This is not tele-operated.
For sure not tele-operated.
No secret room.
these robots are running purely autonomously from an onboard AI policy called Helix running onboard the robot in the torso.”
Taneja: Multiple compression will wipe out equity in many PE software buyouts
“I think software is just now maturing to a state where it's gonna have the same dynamic, and there's a one-time massive reset that's gonna happen because the amount of leverage in the system, and there's a lot of leverage coming due in these P-back companies i…”
Abraham: AI disparity will force NYC luxury apartments to hire armed guards
“The wealth disparity that's already extreme in the US is going to become even more extreme, and one of the first effects of that is just going to be that we're going to live in a less safe society, where in your New York Fancy apartment where you have your doo…”
Constant AI Assistants Will Raise the World's Net IQ by 50 Points
“In general, I think the net IQ of the world is about to go up like 50 points. Like we're surrounded by people, not in Silicon Valley, of course, To quote the Big Lebowski, not a nom, of course. Right. The average IQ is still a hundred. I think the average IQ w…”
Miller: Public venture fund structures will be adopted across VC within years
“Right now we're novel in a couple of years from now it'll be obvious and everyone will be doing this.”
Miller: Loyal will develop the most successful drug in history
“This is going to be the most successful drug in history. And then she's going to go and create the next thing. She's going to create like longevity for humans. I think too.”
AI-native new graduates will 10x output and displace older workers
“I actually think most of those people, most of the new grads, they're gonna be so good at using those AI tools. They're gonna put all the people that are in the older range out of business and be able to do tenx more just by having lived through, like, this re…”
Immerman: Waymo remains significantly ahead of Tesla on safety metrics
“But when you take a step back and compare the data, whether it's disengagements, reported accidents in Austin, Waymo is still significantly ahead today, and we feel really good about their position.”
Rao: Trillion-dollar GPU data centers are physically impossible to power
“None of this is physically realizable, right? That's what's really kind of annoying to me. I'm like, okay, you're talking about, you know, a trillion dollars of GPUs. Where the fuck are you gonna get the power for that? I'm sorry, right? Like you're just, you'…”
Maguire: Space-based data centers will become absolutely giant
“The public doesn't yet Like, the public hasn't yet gotten to see the full argument, like, hasn't gotten to see the math, but I'll just say, like, I think the math is really compelling, and I think data centers in space are, and I was on TBPN maybe six months a…”
Maguire: Top AI models outperform average top-five PhD students
“I think we've definitely hit the point where in most fields of math or physics or computer science, like the best models are better than the average PhD student at like a top five research program”
Goldstein: Buttigieg refused meetings, but Sean Duffy meets with Archer monthly
“I literally could not get a meeting with Secretary Pete Buttigieg. I couldn't do it. He just wouldn't take the meeting. And so, I don't know if it just wasn't important to him or whatever his reasons were, but as soon as the new administration, the administrat…”
Mignano: AI-generated feeds will eventually diminish human creator value
“I think where we're inevitably headed is now when you're swiping TikTok or Reels or Sora, We're eventually gonna end up in a place where most of that content is generated on the fly specifically to target you and to capture your attention as long as possible. …”
Serhant: SERHANT reaches more organic global buyers than competitors combined
“We can put properties in front of more qualified buyers globally, organically than any other firm combined.”
Siddharth: Agentic AI will replace services firms like McKinsey, BCG, and Accenture
“So I think like Turing will probably replace companies like McKinsey, Bain, BCG, and every services company like Accenture, TCS, Wipro, Infosys, like all of these companies doing vanilla services that's going to be automated with these agentic systems.”
Allen Control CEO: Our counter-drone gun will be on every military vehicle
“I think that like bullfrog is going to be everywhere. Like every vehicle in every military that has a gun on it needs to be replaced with a gun that can hit drones. So, I mean, we're going to be in like every country. This is one of the biggest products of all…”
Deploying 1,000 REGENT seagliders in the Taiwan Strait deters World War III
“And then in defense, in 10 years, we will not have had a World War III Because of Regents efforts and many other efforts in deterring that conflict, because we put a thousand sea gliders in the Taiwan trait and we said, try it.”
Sadeghi: Falling IVF and sequencing costs will create genetically optimized children
“And so you're going to see the rapid decrease in cost of IVF combined with the rapid decrease in cost of sequencing A genome. These things are going to converge together to enable this just, this massive, massive new generation of parents having genetically op…”
Sadeghi: Future reproductive genomics platforms will both sequence and edit DNA
“Because eventually, you're not just going to be sequencing and analyzing DNA, You'll also probably be editing it as well.”
Sharky predicts AI tooling will eliminate junior engineer roles in big tech
“I don't think there's a world really for junior engineers at big organizations.”
Peters: Consumers will disintermediate traditional healthcare using AI pocket doctors
“In the limit, we think every person in America, and frankly the world, will have an AI doctor in their pocket, and consumers will fully disintermediate the existing healthcare system as it stands.”
Forty-seven of the top fifty defense startups will fail within fifteen years
“A significant number of the logos that are talked about today and the, you know, sort of top 50 in this field. You know, 47 of those are going to be companies that are completely irrelevant. Yeah. 15 years from today.”
Only Anduril, Palantir, and SpaceX have delivered defense tech at scale
“Other than those three, there isn't really, like, a, like, unicorn VC-backed company that, like, has actually delivered things at scale for the Warfighter that doesn't really exist.”
Mansoor: Prediction markets could become bigger than the stock market
“I think it could just look like the stock market, maybe even bigger.”
McCormick: Most fast-growing AI software startups will flatten and fail to IPO
“By choosing to, like, not play in this space, I'm definitely missing a trillion dollar company or two, but I think for the most part, like, I think there's gonna be, like, a lot of these types of things happening, or even, like, these types of curves, where th…”
McCormick: AI will become 'super SaaS' rather than godlike AGI
“I called it super sass in, in that like 20, 25 prediction. And I think it is like, I think it's really amazing and like in no way godlike. And it's just like, I feel like I'm being psyopped whenever people are like, oh my God, this is like, this is, this chang…”
El-Baba: AI-era startups will not need billions before going public
“No long gone are the days where you're going to have to raise Billions of dollars before you go public. 15 years down the road, you actually can follow the Viva capital efficiency story and build a really great company that can drive a really strong venture ou…”
Asparouhov: Western Europe will resemble a second-world region in ten years
“Still you continue to extrapolate that trend for another 10 years. And like Western Europe is going to look like a second world country while Eastern Europe actually just sort of rises to the top.”
Kolicich: Expect an AI crash and market retrenchment within two years
“I believe in two years where everyone's gonna say, oh, you know, we thought it would solve everything and it's all a very limited number of use cases. It's complete hype. And, you know, we'll probably see a bit of a crash and we'll see a retrenchment in AI.”
Kolicich: Open-source AI iteration speed will surpass closed source
“Cause you'll see the case of iteration at open source is going to eclipse close source.”
Mavrookas: Saronic will save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars
“What we're building at Cerronek will not only provide more capabilities faster, but it'll save the taxpayer hundreds of billions of dollars by driving down costs as well.”
Mavrookas: Five to ten new defense primes will scale within a decade
“I think over the next five to 10 years, I'll answer, I won't dodge the question completely. I think there will be somewhere, but around five to 10. I think you'll see five to 10 really, like, big impactful companies scale over the next five to 10 years, and ho…”
Mendler: Northwood achieves space-grade performance using standard cellular components
“We've been able to like actually make space grade performance out of Standard high volume cellular components.”
Beck: Future space giants will integrate rockets, satellites, and downstream apps
“Like, the big space companies of the future are gonna all look a little bit the same. They're gonna have their own rocket, because access to space is key. They're gonna have their own ability to build as many satellites as they need, and they're all gonna have…”
Lamm: Colossal could eradicate the screwworm problem in six to seven months
“Our solution, which is already made could eradicate the entire problem in every model that we've done in six to seven months.”
Foroughi: AI chatbots will not eliminate ad-driven e-commerce
“We get questions like, well, isn't the chatbot going to tell everyone what to buy and just complete the transaction and no one will ever do e-commerce off of an ad again. And what that leaves a sight of is that people actually like to shop and people want to l…”