The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,819 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sadeghi: Nucleus is the first company to optimize embryos for IQ
“This is the first time a company has partnered with a couple who have optimized their embryos on the basis of intelligence.”
Mavrookas: Saronic will test a hypersonic missile before a manned Navy vessel
“We're actually going to be able to launch a hypersonic missile off of the back of Marauder, which is an autonomous ship, Before the Navy completes their first test of a hypersonic missile off of a manned vessel.”
Lamm: Colossal could birth an extinct species within 12 months
“The next 12 months, I'm looking forward to Colossal potentially having the next birthed extinct species.”
Goldstein: Competitor weaponized the government by framing Archer engineer as a spy
“If, in America, I didn't think it was possible for a competitor to weaponize the government to come after you. And we saw that. It was unbelievable. It was you know, one of my engineers was set up to look like he was like a Chinese spy, and it was totally fake…”
Mansoor: Kalshi's federal regulation allows sports trading across all 50 states
“It's the first time that sports, like, trading on sports is actually legal in all 50 states. Because we are regulated by the, you know, by the feds, like, at the federal level, not state by state. And the federal regulation, like, the law actually supersedes s…”
Mavrookas: Saronic Corsairs rescued downed Apache pilots and attacked Iranian port
“Corsairs, which you just saw, were actively being used in the Straits of Hormuz. Two examples that were made public were one, the Apache pilot rescue of two down pilots, And then a offensive attack on an Iranian port, which actually took out an Iranian submari…”
Monroe-Anderson: Very few defense tech startups have deployed meaningful equipment in Ukraine
“And there's very few defense tech startups that have a meaningful amount of equipment deployed in Ukraine. Like you can just go down the list and see.”
Tony Kim: AI compute requires $10 trillion in CapEx over five years
“So this is the irony of it all, that we're, the trillion dollars of CapEx this year, and the 10 trillion over the next five years that are coming,
Is to move data centimeters and millimeters.
That's AI.”
Friedberg predicts the US faces tyranny or anarchy within two years
“Because otherwise you are going to have tyranny slash anarchy, which are both basically the same happening over the next couple of years in the United States.”
Patel: Open-source AI is dying as Chinese labs shift to licensing
“The theme here is that all, like, there's multiple Chinese model labs who are telling all the inference guys, hey, yeah, yeah, our next model's not gonna be open source, we're gonna license it to you. So open is, is dying quickly, unfortunately.”
Jain: Open source models will dominate AI inferencing within two years
“Well, I think open source models are going to dominate AI inferencing. You know, you'll see in the next two years, we'll shift to where's almost no open source to where's going to be almost all open source.”
Cook: Keyboards and mice will be obsolete within five years
“We're gonna look back in five years and say, of course we're not using keyboards and mice anymore. Like, we've come up with a better way to interact with intelligence.”
Grinberg: 90% of AI tokens will use open models within 12 months
“My hottest take is that in the next 12 months, 90% of tokens will be going to open models.”
Johnston: SpaceX will reach a $10 trillion valuation within years
“My hottest take right now is that the SpaceX IPO is the, gonna be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time. I think they will tear through 10 trillion within, you know, certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimite…”
Liang: SambaNova 10kW SN40 rack outperformed 140kW Nvidia GPU racks
“And so by the time we released SN-Forty a couple years ago, it became incredibly popular, because instead of a 130, a 140 kilowatt rack of NVIDIA GPU, we were outperforming them with a 10 kilowatt SN-Forty rack.”
Feldman: xAI leased GPUs to Anthropic because Grok lacked usage
“They had available capacity because the Grok model wasn't used very much. So they had these GPUs that were sitting around and that's a bad idea. And so they sold a whole block of them or released a whole block of them to Anthropic.”
Banister: China will train AI on Western IP and sell output back
“And then what's really going to happen is China will sell our art back to us. So they're going to steal it all anyway, because they don't care. And they're just going to basically come back to us with these models, which we've seen with DeepSeek and everything…”
Miller: Top-quartile late-stage venture returns will soon match early-stage returns
“The returns in the private market at the late stage are actually going to start matching the returns at the early stage. If you look at top quartile performance of early stage funds versus late stage funds, I think they're going to be pretty close to each othe…”
Armstrong: AI will not cause high unemployment
“I'm in the camp of people who don't think AI is going to actually cause high unemployment. I think that employment will be about the same.”
Slotowicz: OpenAI recently announced internal plans to go public
“OpenAI just announced that they're going to be going public.”
Fishner-Wolfson claims OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed S-1s
“SpaceX is the big one to kind of start this, but, I mean, as you mentioned, like, OpenAI and Anthropic are both valid. They're S-one's confidentially, so it's gonna be a pretty interesting, you know, few quarters in the public markets.”
Singerman predicts proposed wealth taxes will go national across the US
“Oh, that's definitely going national.”
Gil Feig: Custom agent harnesses and workflow builders will become obsolete very soon
“You see a lot of people trying to build, like, a custom harness, or, You know use something like a workflow builder to build agents that are repeatable and all of that. And I just ultimately think none of it matters because we're almost at the point now where …”
Tandon: VC-backed AI point solutions will die within three years
“There's a lot of nonsense GPT wrapper businesses out there right now. I won't say them by name. Maybe I'll say them by name later, but the, you know, they grew fast. They got a lot of VC interest, but they're going to be gone in three years because companies l…”
Rangwalla: Anthropic Grew ARR From $9B in December to $30B
“It was nine billion dollars at the end of December, and that number was thirty billion, right? So they added twenty billion, they're adding, you know, ten billion plus or minus a month, almost two and a half billion dollars a week.”
Adcock: Figure demonstration robots run purely autonomously with onboard Helix AI
“This is not tele-operated.
For sure not tele-operated.
No secret room.
these robots are running purely autonomously from an onboard AI policy called Helix running onboard the robot in the torso.”
Taneja: Multiple compression will wipe out equity in many PE software buyouts
“I think software is just now maturing to a state where it's gonna have the same dynamic, and there's a one-time massive reset that's gonna happen because the amount of leverage in the system, and there's a lot of leverage coming due in these P-back companies i…”
Abraham: AI disparity will force NYC luxury apartments to hire armed guards
“The wealth disparity that's already extreme in the US is going to become even more extreme, and one of the first effects of that is just going to be that we're going to live in a less safe society, where in your New York Fancy apartment where you have your doo…”
Constant AI Assistants Will Raise the World's Net IQ by 50 Points
“In general, I think the net IQ of the world is about to go up like 50 points. Like we're surrounded by people, not in Silicon Valley, of course, To quote the Big Lebowski, not a nom, of course. Right. The average IQ is still a hundred. I think the average IQ w…”
Miller: Public venture fund structures will be adopted across VC within years
“Right now we're novel in a couple of years from now it'll be obvious and everyone will be doing this.”
Miller: Loyal will develop the most successful drug in history
“This is going to be the most successful drug in history. And then she's going to go and create the next thing. She's going to create like longevity for humans. I think too.”
AI-native new graduates will 10x output and displace older workers
“I actually think most of those people, most of the new grads, they're gonna be so good at using those AI tools. They're gonna put all the people that are in the older range out of business and be able to do tenx more just by having lived through, like, this re…”
Immerman: Waymo remains significantly ahead of Tesla on safety metrics
“But when you take a step back and compare the data, whether it's disengagements, reported accidents in Austin, Waymo is still significantly ahead today, and we feel really good about their position.”
Immerman: Kalshi is number one across users, revenue, and volume
“And today they're number one across users, revenue, volume, any metric that, that anyone would care about.”
Raanan: An Israeli cybersecurity startup will reach a $50B valuation by 2032
“I'm pretty sure that in, in, in six years, maybe less, we'll see a fifty billion dollar and a hundred billion dollar cyber security company out of Israel. You know. I take it like take it like a fact, like, you know, the sun was, would rise tomorrow. You know,…”
Rao: Trillion-dollar GPU data centers are physically impossible to power
“None of this is physically realizable, right? That's what's really kind of annoying to me. I'm like, okay, you're talking about, you know, a trillion dollars of GPUs. Where the fuck are you gonna get the power for that? I'm sorry, right? Like you're just, you'…”
Maguire: Space-based data centers will become absolutely giant
“The public doesn't yet Like, the public hasn't yet gotten to see the full argument, like, hasn't gotten to see the math, but I'll just say, like, I think the math is really compelling, and I think data centers in space are, and I was on TBPN maybe six months a…”
Maguire: Top AI models outperform average top-five PhD students
“I think we've definitely hit the point where in most fields of math or physics or computer science, like the best models are better than the average PhD student at like a top five research program”
Goldstein: Buttigieg refused meetings, but Sean Duffy meets with Archer monthly
“I literally could not get a meeting with Secretary Pete Buttigieg. I couldn't do it. He just wouldn't take the meeting. And so, I don't know if it just wasn't important to him or whatever his reasons were, but as soon as the new administration, the administrat…”
Mignano: AI-generated feeds will eventually diminish human creator value
“I think where we're inevitably headed is now when you're swiping TikTok or Reels or Sora, We're eventually gonna end up in a place where most of that content is generated on the fly specifically to target you and to capture your attention as long as possible. …”
Serhant: SERHANT reaches more organic global buyers than competitors combined
“We can put properties in front of more qualified buyers globally, organically than any other firm combined.”
Siddharth: Agentic AI will replace services firms like McKinsey, BCG, and Accenture
“So I think like Turing will probably replace companies like McKinsey, Bain, BCG, and every services company like Accenture, TCS, Wipro, Infosys, like all of these companies doing vanilla services that's going to be automated with these agentic systems.”
Allen Control CEO: Our counter-drone gun will be on every military vehicle
“I think that like bullfrog is going to be everywhere. Like every vehicle in every military that has a gun on it needs to be replaced with a gun that can hit drones. So, I mean, we're going to be in like every country. This is one of the biggest products of all…”
Siemiatkowski: Klarna cut headcount from 7,400 to 3,000 while doubling revenue
“Klana has gotten so much attention around our efficiency gains, and we've gone from 7400 people to 3000, while, you know, our revenue has doubled since then. So, our revenue per employee went from 450,000 dollars per employee to over a million now.”
Shadbolt: One-million-qubit quantum computer will outperform all global conventional compute
“A single million qubit quantum computer would outperform The net total of conventional computing on the entire planet. So you take all of the supercomputers on the planet, you take every AWS system, every Azure system, you add them all together, and we trash t…”
Deploying 1,000 REGENT seagliders in the Taiwan Strait deters World War III
“And then in defense, in 10 years, we will not have had a World War III Because of Regents efforts and many other efforts in deterring that conflict, because we put a thousand sea gliders in the Taiwan trait and we said, try it.”
McGee: Tim Cook Pledged $275B in Apple Investment to China
“They do their own supply chain study, sort of Apple internally, and realize that they're investing fifty-five billion dollars a year into Chinese factories, and once they've sort of established this, and they realize, like, how much that could mean to local an…”
McGee: Apple Funded Supply Ecosystem That Powered Huawei and Xiaomi
“Apple trained all of their suppliers, and then the suppliers in turn supplied Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo. So that's why Nokia couldn't keep up. It's that China had this amazing ecosystem built for the smartphone industry, all paid for by Apple.”