The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,819 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Del Buono: Most tech-focused RIAs have at most one or two professional investors
“So a lot of these firms do not have professional investors. So I often ask people as a quiz how many professional investors do you think are in, you know, RIA XYZ? And people will answer, I mean, percent, right? People answer me, 20%, 50%, 30%, but the number …”
Huffman: Reddit data has trained every major LLM, with or without permission
“Reddit's data has been used to train every large language model you've heard of, some with and others without our permission, which has, you know, been a situation to navigate but with our biggest partners, Google and OpenAI, you know, we do it on purpose, and…”
Immerman: OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half of public cloud
“If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, the two, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the mag seven.”
Immerman: Rideshare market will grow by at least 10x in coming years
“And so the ride share market is going to grow by You know, at least in order of magnitude in the coming years.”
Immerman: Top 1% venture outcome will reach $40B in 8-10 years
“Every five years, that, that top one percent outcome doubles. And so, if you were to fast forward another, you know, eight to 10 years, That's forty billion is the top one percent outcome.”
Immerman: a16z can almost guarantee viral launches for founders
“We can go to an early stage founder and almost guarantee That their launch is going to go viral.”
Raanan: The cybersecurity industry will face its darkest period this coming decade
“I hope I'm wrong, but I think I'm, we are going to face the darkest, darkest period in cyber security in the next.
10 years.”
Raanan: Future cyber warfare will be fought entirely by autonomous AI agents
“In 20 years, or 10 years,
I don't know.
But it's not tomorrow.
we are going to see threat actors who are programs, very, very smart, sophisticated, maybe self-aware, and we'll talk about self-awareness in a second threat actors, and the defenders would be, yo…”
Lin: Top companies will reach $10 trillion valuations within ten years
“Today we have companies that are worth four and a half to five trillion dollars. If you give it another five to 10 years, those companies continue to compound. It will be worth 10 trillion or more.”
Laffont: SaaS must re-accelerate with AI or re-rate to 20x GAAP earnings
“So one of two things are going to have to change. Either companies are going to have to benefit from AI and re-accelerate the top line. And I think if you, again, listen to the workday earnings call yesterday, Anil, the CEO, essentially said his job is to come…”
Laffont: No Coatue portfolio company plans to cut engineering staff due to AI
“What I can tell you is not a single one of the companies that we're kind of involved with is saying, wow, we're seeing so much more efficiency. We want to cut our engineering staff in half, right?”
Opendoor paid a consulting firm $5M to advise cutting quality across operations
“The single largest expense on our income statement was millions of dollars paid to a well-known consulting firm whose advice can be approximated as the following. We paid him five million dollars for this. This voice was basically the following tweet. Do every…”
Opendoor replaced an 11-person manual home offer workflow entirely with AI
“So between the time, like you put your address in and you Got an offer. There'd be 11 human beings who touched that. That's insane. That's just an insane outcome. Like, today, zero human beings are in that loop in many of our flows. Like, AI does all of that.”
Opendoor's earnings livestream peaked at a record 55,000 viewers
“Our earnings was the most watched earnings in history. The last National Open House we did broke records for how many people watched it. No. Yeah, by a lot, but not by a lot. We should fact check this, but I think at one point we had 55,000 live viewers.”
Nejatian mandated a one-week return-to-office despite Opendoor lacking physical office space
“I showed up on a Monday, my first Monday at work and I said, Hey everyone, by next Monday, we're back in offices. At that point, we didn't have offices. Like we didn't know where people were gonna go. So we had to like the team had to go sign leases, open up o…”
Blania: World has the world's largest crypto wallet by user count
“And so now we actually, we have the largest wallet in the world in terms of users.”
Blania: AI will soon drive 99.9% of all internet traffic
“Because I think like, 99.9% or something of all internet traffic will be AI driven.”
Blania: X will become unusable within two years without new technical solutions
“So I think my personal prediction, I might be wrong with this, but I think Platforms like X will not be usable. And like a matter of months, maximum two years if they don't come up with completely new technical solutions”
Blania: Humanity is in the last innings before superintelligence
“We are probably in the last innings before superintelligence.”
Bueller: Machines will perform the vast majority of cognitive work in 20 years
“And I think that you look 20 years out, and the vast majority of cognitive work is done by machines, just like the vast majority of physical work is done by machines.”
Rao: Unconventional AI Could Open a Computing Paradigm Lasting 80 Years
“I think we have the opportunity to completely open up a new paradigm that could exist for another 80 years.”
Rao: Unconventional AI has very high chance of hitting 50x efficiency first go
“Are we going to hit a thousand X in the first go? Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. There's a some percentage chance that we will hit it, but I think we're going to hit 50 X with a very high chance.”
Das: Academic institutions can no longer afford to fund frontier AI research
“Research is not happening in academic institutions anymore. They just don't have the money to fund frontier research.”
Maguire: SpaceX Starship will fly reliably and reusably in 2026
“I think Elon and the company have gained a lot of confidence that Starship is going to be flying like reliably and reusable this year in 20, 26. Like that's my strong sense.”
Maguire: xAI will shock people with how quickly it scales
“I just think XAI is gonna shock people with the scale that it gets to quickly.”
Maguire: SpaceX IPO will boost private AI companies through liquidity
“I think the SpaceX IPO will actually help all private companies this year, including the AI companies, just because it creates a lot of liquidity, and it draws a lot of capital, you know, into tech, and, you know, people are gonna, like, it's, it will just cre…”
Maguire: SpaceX IPO wealth will not degrade employee culture or motivation
“I don't, I think that in most companies, it's kind of destroyed the culture. I don't think that's going to be the case at SpaceX because SpaceX is such a mission-oriented company, and as I was saying before, the next five years and then five years after that h…”
Wright: Space Data Centers Are Inevitable to Power Lunar and Martian Bases
“This is actually a debate that we have in terms of how soon it's going to happen, but it's definitely going to happen. Data centers in space is coming, and it makes sense, right? If you think about and you know, a lot of this is public, but what SpaceX is talk…”
Dan Wright: Global AI will run on either US or Chinese stack within years
“In a few years, what's going to happen is One of two things. Either the world is going to be running on the USAI stack, or it's going to be running on the Chinese AI stack”
Ramaswamy: Seat-based SaaS models will struggle against cheaper AI competitors
“I think it's more of, if somebody is very heavy in a seat-based licensing model, And someone else shows up that, you know, has a better product and is also cheaper. That's a very dangerous combination. I think those are the companies that are going to struggle…”
Delivery logistics will shift from 4,000-pound cars to 50-pound autonomous EVs
“An inevitable transformation that we are going to go from using humans driving cars that weigh, you know, 4000 pounds and burn gas to a world where we're going to be using vehicles that weigh 50 pounds and are electric and autonomous.”
Cliffton: Zipline has a clear path to a trillion-dollar valuation
“Has wound up being one of the biggest markets on Earth that means that, You know, we suddenly have a company that you know, is highly valued by investors and has a pretty much like straight and obvious path to becoming a trillion dollar.”
Goldstein: Boeing sued Archer immediately after its public listing announcement
“So when you have an industry that's so heavily consolidated, they don't want new entrants. And so Boeing sued us instantly.”
Goldstein: Scaled air taxi networks will take 10 to 20 years
“So air taxi will happen over time. It's not gonna happen year one. It's probably not gonna happen year five, but it will happen by year 10, and it will certainly be scaled by year 20.”
Tenev: Prediction markets will disrupt insurance by cheapening fire and hurricane hedging
“You can trade and hedge fire risk. You can hedge hurricane risk. And if you think about the process of like insuring yourself against a fire or a hurricane, It can be very expensive and it's cumbersome. You have to talk to a broker on the phone and the contrac…”
Tenev: Retail access to private companies will be standard in 5 years
“And I think that, you know, five years from now, The exact mechanisms, whether tokenization is legal or closed-end funds, that's less clear. But what I know is I, I'm very confident that retail investors getting exposure to private companies Will be easier, mu…”
Tenev: Harmonic's Aristotle AI autonomously solved an unsolved Erdős math problem
“And now with Aristotle people are doing like systematic, they're going through them. And there was one that Aristotle solved fully autonomously. And then a bunch of others where Aristotle assisted in solving or converting into formal math language.”
Luckey: Anduril beat Boeing, Northrop, and Lockheed for USAF contract
“So we were competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and in the end, Andrel beat all of them.”
Luckey: China has hundreds of times more shipbuilding capacity than US
“China's hundreds of times ahead of it. Hundreds of times more capacity than us.”
Luckey predicts mass-producing weapons in existing auto factories will become a major model
“I think that that is a model that is going to be a big deal here in the United States, and I think it's also going to be a big deal in allied nations that similarly have a lot of their own existing industrial capacity. You know, you don't necessarily have to b…”
Schimpf: US defense budgets cannot shrink without sacrificing necessary military capability
“I don't see a world where, like, the defense budgets could magically shrink, and we still have the military that we need to have, but I do think these things can be done wildly more efficiently than they ever have in the past.”
Schimpf: Europe will spend 4x US defense procurement over next five years
“Europe is going to spend something like
Four times the amount of procurement that the U S is over the next five years.”
Schimpf: US has sufficient PCB, composites, and CNC capacity for defense
“Is there enough composites capacity or printed circuit board capacity in the U S or CNC shops? The answer is absolutely yes. There is definitely enough capacity”
Schimpf: Europe will outspend US procurement fourfold over next five years
“Europe is going to spend something like four times the amount of procurement that the U.S. Is over the next five years.”
Luckey: Anduril beat Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrop for fighter contract
“We were competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and in the end, Andrew beat all of them, which was really really gratifying to, you know, go from starting this company to going toe to toe with the guys who are legends of the fighter commun…”
Luckey: Anduril built optically invisible drones around 2019–2020
“Building drones that are invisible to the human eye at the ranges that you're using them, it's not just like a hypothetical. Andrew did this in like, 2019, 20 20.”
Michael: China is building hypersonic missiles at costs the US cannot match
“So they've developed certain capabilities in certain hypersonic missile categories, ah, at a price that, ah, that we haven't achieved yet, which is why one of my critical technology areas is high, scaled hypersonics at cost.”