The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 30 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Slotowicz: OpenAI recently announced internal plans to go public
“OpenAI just announced that they're going to be going public.”
Fishner-Wolfson claims OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed S-1s
“SpaceX is the big one to kind of start this, but, I mean, as you mentioned, like, OpenAI and Anthropic are both valid. They're S-one's confidentially, so it's gonna be a pretty interesting, you know, few quarters in the public markets.”
Immerman: OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half of public cloud
“If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, the two, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the mag seven.”
Barton: OpenAI has 800M WAU with engagement rivaling Instagram
“OpenAI's got, what, like, eight hundred million weekly active users. Spending, like, spending, by my estimates, close to the amount of time every day that is spent on Instagram.”
Moore: Frontier tech companies are growing 100% at multi-billion-dollar run rates
“I mean, these companies are compounding it over a hundred percent year over year in the billions of run rate. We have never seen that before, right?”
Competitors will catch up to OpenAI's o1 reasoning model within six months
“O1 just came out. We haven't fully benchmarked on our side yet. It's definitely an improvement. And so open AI is ahead of everybody else. It's an improvement in reasoning which is good. We can talk about that later on, but I expect people will catch up within…”
Oltmann: OpenAI is attempting to build its own chip factories
“OpenAI is currently out in the market now trying to actually build their own chip factories and develop their own chips internally, which is a total shift away from historically what software companies have done.”
Rangwalla: OpenAI's latest funding round valued it over $800B
“OpenAI's most recent round was 800 plus billion dollars.”
Rangwalla: Combined OpenAI and Anthropic ARR Exceeds Salesforce and ServiceNow
“And then when you think about both of them combined, let's say they're close to sixty billion dollars. I mean, that is bigger than ServiceNow, that is bigger than Salesforce, that is bigger than any big name SaaS platform that you would think about. And these …”
Lin: OpenAI leverages Oracle's balance sheet and tools for data centers
“Oracle, the last time I checked, still exists. If you think that they're a legacy company, I don't know why OpenAI would want to leverage their balance sheet and their and their tools to be able to run data centers.”
Laffont: Top AI and tech unicorns will likely IPO within 24 months
“You know, some of them will probably go public in the next 12 to 24 months, so that'll be kind of one impact of it”
Barton: Google and OpenAI Pay Reddit ~$50M Annually for Training Data
“I think it's ballpark, fifty million dollars. For Google, so Google pays Reddit, fifty million dollars a year to kind of, ah, have trained in the past on it, but B, have updated data, and, ah, ChatGPT does the same thing.”
Agrawal: ChatGPT exhibits rare retention 'smile curve' like TikTok and Instagram
“And ChatGPT exhibits a smile curve. The other apps that exhibit smile curves are Instagram, and TikTok.”
Agrawal: ChatGPT Daily Time Spent Exceeds Mainstream Social Apps Like X
“On, in terms of time spent, you know, we've published this analysis. They are far and above time spent per user per day compared to any of the other apps AI apps today. Actually not just AI apps. I, you know, one of the analysis we did is they are now larger t…”
Agrawal: Switching to OpenAI's New Model Boosted XBOW's Cyber Detection to 81%
“Their benchmark, on their benchmarks, they saw a significant step up with GPT-V, much better than any other coding or design or math startup saw in their ability to find cyber exploits. And, you know, summarizing, basically, the jump was from just under 60% to…”
Tunguz: Consumer AI will surpass one billion users in 2025
“So you're kind of approaching the billion user number in consumer AI. I think we'll definitely surpass that this year.”
Asparouhov: Khosla is the only equity owner in OpenAI besides Microsoft
“Mattershund being the largest, you know, sort of investor
You know, in SpaceX, Coastal Ventures being the largest investor in Rocket Lab, and then in some ways more recently, you know, the only equity owner in OpenAI other than Microsoft.”
Rangwalla: OpenAI Reached Almost 1B Users Fastest in History
“How OpenAI reached, you know, almost a billion users in the fastest time in history.”
O'Shea: OpenAI's $110B round comprised roughly one-third of 2025 tech funding
“OpenAI just raised a hundred and ten billion dollar round. I think that amounted to about a third of all funding in the private markets for tech in 2025.”
Blania: OpenAI invested directly into Merge Labs, not via venture fund
“It's a direct investment from OpenAI, not the venture arm, and so it is an actual collaboration”
Wright: Armada partnered with OpenAI to bring models to the edge
“We announced another one with OpenAI, taking their models to the edge for the first time, so partnerships are a key part of our strategy, and it's,”
Ramaswamy: ChatGPT has nearly one billion users
“Value is being created by all the users of ChatGPT, nearly a billion of them.”
Mignano: Sam Altman hinted at compensating creators for name and likeness
“Sam actually even hinted to this in his blog post, sort of hinted that there's going to be a new model where they're compensating creators for their likeness, their name and likeness.”
Agrawal: Meta Generates Double OpenAI's $40B Funding in Annual Operating Cash Flow
“To put that in perspective, OpenAI just raised this massive round, forty billion dollars, and Meta is producing more than twice that in a year.”
Google X spinoff Iyo is suing Jony Ive and OpenAI
“There was a lawsuit against a company called IO that or sorry, the company called IO that spun out of Google X is suing John Ives and OpenAI, and that was a headphone company, like an earbud company.”
O'Shea: Coatue and Altimeter data show OpenAI outpacing viral social platforms
“KOTU and Altimeter did like a bunch of different surveys and data science around OpenAI's traction and daily active users against social platforms. So they're comparing it against like, okay, there's like a resource, like a learning tool for knowledge, and now…”