The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 90 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Adcock claims Figure's internal AI team was running circles around OpenAI
“It got to a point where we were just like, our team internally that was designing these models were running circles around OpenAI. We were just way better at this. And we were better about testing on the robots, training the models, like all, all of it.”
Brett Adcock says he terminated Figure's AI collaboration agreement with OpenAI
“And so I fired him.”
Banister: OpenAI and Anthropic's closed, centralized AI approach is the wrong path
“It became incredibly centralized and closed source. And you're seeing that happen with open AI and Anthropic. It's the wrong path because everyone needs to have their own models. Everyone needs to be able to be able to compete and you don't want one company wi…”
Slotowicz: OpenAI recently announced internal plans to go public
“OpenAI just announced that they're going to be going public.”
Fishner-Wolfson claims OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed S-1s
“SpaceX is the big one to kind of start this, but, I mean, as you mentioned, like, OpenAI and Anthropic are both valid. They're S-one's confidentially, so it's gonna be a pretty interesting, you know, few quarters in the public markets.”
Clark: Every major large model paradigm has originated at OpenAI
“Every single major paradigm In large models at this sort of macro level that has been very successful to my knowledge has come from open AI or at least been originated at open AI.”
McGee: Jony Ive and OpenAI's AI Device Will Just Become an iPhone App
“I think it becomes an iPhone app.”
Agrawal: Enterprises must plan for multi-model routing over single-lab lock-in
“So if you're a CIO, if you're a CEO, if you're about to make a multi-million, billion-dollar decision of which lab to build your intelligence on, plan for the climate, not for the weather. What does that mean? That's multi-model routing. That's evals. That's t…”
Feldman: Cerebras to provide OpenAI over $20B in hardware
“We'll be doing more than twenty billion dollars of hardware with, for them over the next several years.”
Randle: Model commoditization will not kill OpenAI because users love ChatGPT
“I don't think it's like a death knell for them because, you know, it's like, again, like most of the users of ChatGPT would use ChatGPT whether or not it was a GPT model in there or not. Like they like the product.”
Pereyra: Client conflict rules mean law firms need multiple AI providers
“Most of these law firms and enterprises Can't rely on a single lab provider. So like there's a big risk if you're a law firm that if you just use Anthropic or you just use OpenAI you run into conflict risk. So imagine you're using only Anthropics models as a l…”
Huffman: Reddit data has trained every major LLM, with or without permission
“Reddit's data has been used to train every large language model you've heard of, some with and others without our permission, which has, you know, been a situation to navigate but with our biggest partners, Google and OpenAI, you know, we do it on purpose, and…”
Immerman: OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half of public cloud
“If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, the two, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the mag seven.”
Blania: OpenAI wrote the biggest check in Merge Labs' seed round
“A large group of people, but the biggest check was OpenAI and then many of our friends, you know, some of the funds that have been involved here, many, many individuals, it's like a broad, like it's a class, like it's a large scale seed, but it is, from that p…”
Clark: AI-native youth excel at frontier model experimentation
“The people who almost hold the model weights in their brains because they've been brought up thinking about AI natively are really, really good at the creative thinking and experiments and hypothesis testing that is necessary to push the performance of these m…”
Lin: OpenAI at $500 Billion Works If It Can Reach $5 Trillion
“Well, so it's easy to dismiss the 500 Billion and say that you can't make money from five hundred billion, but if we let NVIDIA, which is worth four trillion today, compound at 10% for another decade, it's going to be worth more than 10 trillion. So if OpenAI …”
Barton: Marketing spend will shift from Meta to AI agents and Shopify
“So that 20% that I'm spending on marketing to, you know, maybe it was meta, is now gonna, like, that profit pool is gonna be more going toward a Shopify or the actual agent players themselves, OpenAI or Gemini.”
Barton: OpenAI has 800M WAU with engagement rivaling Instagram
“OpenAI's got, what, like, eight hundred million weekly active users. Spending, like, spending, by my estimates, close to the amount of time every day that is spent on Instagram.”
Gil: OpenAI and Anthropic valuations are reasonable relative to growth rates
“I, my sense is that for many of these foundation lab companies, if you just do a revenue multiple and you look at the growth rate, it's actually pretty reasonable. That's true of OpenAI, that's true of Anthropic.”
Agrawal: Fast shipping velocity is OpenAI's primary defensibility
“Keeping up with OpenAI product updates is a full-time job, and that's the strategy, is ship fast. And I feel like that done at a consistent pace, I mean, just in, just this year alone, you've had Operator and Deep Research and ChatGPT agents and Codex, and the…”
Agrawal: AI Semis Generate $200B, While AI Apps Are Only Earning $40B
“Nvidia earned, Nvidia alone at the chip player earned roughly forty billion dollars in data center revenue in Q one last quarter. So analyze that's about a 160. Let's say the total industry is 170, 180, maybe let's say 200. The infra layer is 20, thirty billio…”
Agrawal: OpenAI's Consumer Business Could Reach $200B in Annual Revenue
“We think over time,
The number of users could go up to three to four billion users. We think on the monetization side, over time, it could go from 10 today to 60, 70 dollars per user per year, which is where Meta and Google and other large consumer platforms a…”
Moore: Frontier tech companies are growing 100% at multi-billion-dollar run rates
“I mean, these companies are compounding it over a hundred percent year over year in the billions of run rate. We have never seen that before, right?”
Moore: Massive valuations for OpenAI and Anthropic can still generate fund-level multiples
“And so when you look at investment like open AI at thirty billion or anthropic at sixty billion, you know, I can tell you these are opportunities that I personally believe have the upside to generate multiples versus say IRR.”
Tunguz: The $250B annual search marketing market is up for grabs
“There's two hundred fifty billion in search engine marketing spend every year, and so all of that is now totally up for grabs.”
Competitors will catch up to OpenAI's o1 reasoning model within six months
“O1 just came out. We haven't fully benchmarked on our side yet. It's definitely an improvement. And so open AI is ahead of everybody else. It's an improvement in reasoning which is good. We can talk about that later on, but I expect people will catch up within…”
The volume of pre-IPO leadership departures at OpenAI is historically unprecedented
“I don't think we've ever seen pre-IPO so many leaders leave the best, like, crown jewel company in Silicon Valley. It's common, like, you IPO, everyone gets rich and they leave. Okay, that's normal. But before IPO, right in its, like, heyday, you don't see the…”
Oltmann: OpenAI is attempting to build its own chip factories
“OpenAI is currently out in the market now trying to actually build their own chip factories and develop their own chips internally, which is a total shift away from historically what software companies have done.”
Feldman: OpenAI Partnership Informs Cerebras's Chip Designs for Frontier AI
“One of the advantages of our relationship with open AI is we get to see exactly where the frontier is going and we get a chance to roll that into our designs.”
Armstrong: OpenAI and Anthropic will not enter regulated financial services
“Ah, well, I don't think OpenAI and Anthropic are going to build all the companies. I think they're mostly focused on building foundational models, which are broadly applicable. But for instance, I don't think anyone thinks they're going to get into regulated f…”
Rangwalla: OpenAI's latest funding round valued it over $800B
“OpenAI's most recent round was 800 plus billion dollars.”
Rangwalla: Combined OpenAI and Anthropic ARR Exceeds Salesforce and ServiceNow
“And then when you think about both of them combined, let's say they're close to sixty billion dollars. I mean, that is bigger than ServiceNow, that is bigger than Salesforce, that is bigger than any big name SaaS platform that you would think about. And these …”
Khosrowshahi: Uber will integrate with OpenAI so AI agents can book rides
“We will work with an open AI so that an open AI agent can essentially get an Uber for you as well.”
Lin: OpenAI leverages Oracle's balance sheet and tools for data centers
“Oracle, the last time I checked, still exists. If you think that they're a legacy company, I don't know why OpenAI would want to leverage their balance sheet and their and their tools to be able to run data centers.”
Laffont: Top AI and tech unicorns will likely IPO within 24 months
“You know, some of them will probably go public in the next 12 to 24 months, so that'll be kind of one impact of it”
Paul: Anti Fund consulted OpenAI on Sora and licensed his likeness
“That eventually led to us helping them, yeah, develop Sora, and like what it was gonna even be and look like, and all of that stuff, and consulting them. You know, me and my brother have however many years combined of social media experience, like since the be…”
Bueller: Vast majority of academia believed OpenAI's research would fail
“Remember, the vast majority of academia, when OpenAI was doing their research that now has changed the world, would have thought that that would fail.”
Mignano: OpenAI differentiates via Sam Altman's ruthless execution and speed
“I think the difference of what we're seeing here is kind of the ambition of Sam Altman and the speed and the kind of ruthlessness, and that's a compliment to which his organization can move and can move fast.”
DoD prioritizes adapting commercial AI over building in-house foundation models
“Applied AI is number one. And the reason I call it applied AI is because the big companies, OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI, they're all investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI and AI infrastructure. So all I need to do is take that and adapt it for the departm…”
Clark: Only two venture firms gave OpenAI a term sheet in early 2023
“And so when we invested in open AI in that round, I think we were one of two firms that gave the company a term sheet.”
Clark: Productized intelligence will create a post-SaaS era of software companies
“Now there's a new substrate for technology, which is what if you could productize intelligence and call it via API or fine tune a model with it? And I think that it engenders an entirely new breed of software companies. So I don't think it's an after open AI. …”
Barton: Google and OpenAI Pay Reddit ~$50M Annually for Training Data
“I think it's ballpark, fifty million dollars. For Google, so Google pays Reddit, fifty million dollars a year to kind of, ah, have trained in the past on it, but B, have updated data, and, ah, ChatGPT does the same thing.”
Siddharth: Turing works with seven of the eight frontier AI labs
“We work with seven out of the eight Frontier Labs. We work with OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, anybody that's building a Frontier Foundation model, we are probably working with them already.”
Agrawal: ChatGPT exhibits rare retention 'smile curve' like TikTok and Instagram
“And ChatGPT exhibits a smile curve. The other apps that exhibit smile curves are Instagram, and TikTok.”
Agrawal: ChatGPT Daily Time Spent Exceeds Mainstream Social Apps Like X
“On, in terms of time spent, you know, we've published this analysis. They are far and above time spent per user per day compared to any of the other apps AI apps today. Actually not just AI apps. I, you know, one of the analysis we did is they are now larger t…”
Agrawal: Switching to OpenAI's New Model Boosted XBOW's Cyber Detection to 81%
“Their benchmark, on their benchmarks, they saw a significant step up with GPT-V, much better than any other coding or design or math startup saw in their ability to find cyber exploits. And, you know, summarizing, basically, the jump was from just under 60% to…”
Agrawal: OpenAI is anti-fragile and has become faster over time
“The single word to define them is anti-fragile. I've seen this for years now. Remember the time that the blip happened when Sam was for a hot second, not at OpenAI, and it felt like, oh, what's going to happen to this org? You know, this is obviously a pretty …”