The Calls

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Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

1held up → 0didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →
100%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Dino Mavrookas (13)Keller Rinaudo Cliffton (4)Alex Immerman (4)Shaun Maguire (3)Pete Shadbolt (3)Doug Bernauer (3)David Ulevitch (3)Ben Lamm (3)Sir Peter Beck (2)Scott Nolan (2)Richard Socher (2)Pedro Franceschi (2)
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Prediction Held up
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Alex Immerman Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 47:07 Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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