The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 42 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Anthropic Will Reach $50B in Revenue in Four Years
“Anthropics revenue is like nothing we've ever seen. Okay. It'll be at fifty billion in less than four years or four years plus or minus.”
Lemkin: Most SDRs and qualifying BDRs will be eliminated by 2026
“And I really think most SDRs will die next year, but the meat, and I know we throw around these terms differently. The BDR that sort of smarmily qualifies you that that's going to die. Like we just, there's no need for that with these tools.”
Cabane: ChatGPT will drive 25% to 33% of traffic in nine months
“I believe we're going to a webless world. I believe GPT is going to be like a quarter to a third of the traffic and nine months from now, right?”
Lemkin: ElevenLabs will reach $300 million in revenue this year
“The tools are either so disruptive, like a cursor or replica or lovable or 11 labs will go from like almost nothing to three hundred million this year.”
Lemkin: Digital AI sales engineers will soon join live sales calls
“I think A digital SE like this is Brian Halligan's digital one on Delphi is going to come to the zooms. The human it's a person is going to be there. And I brought this up and Dara said, give me another release and this will be full duplex. Like my AI and Bria…”
Benioff: Salesforce Will Demonstrate AI Agents Integrating Into Physical Robots
“And that fourth layer is going to be the robotic layer, but it needs the other three layers to operate because the agents are going to get manifested into these robots. So that will be a keep next step. And we'll see that by dream force. I'm sure.”
David Sacks: Seed-stage startup mortality rate will reach roughly 80%
“Well, I would say that the mortality rate on seed right now is very high. You know, I think it's probably going to be like, 80%.”
Lemkin: Public SaaS multiples will rebound 20% to 40% by late 2023
“And so I'm pretty bullish at the end of this year. I'm bullish that multiples will be up somewhere between 20 and 40%, and I believe that will lead to a rush to deploy capital, but for founders, you have to understand that will never lead to a return of 2021.”
Lee: Series A valuations will reset to $20M-$40M pre-money
“Well, Series A's we're going to be back to eight to twelve million dollars, and Series A valuations will be back to 20 to 35, 40 pre. And B's will be back to a hundred pre, instead of four or 500 pre.”
Pepper: SaaS Multiples Will Settle Higher Than May 2022 Levels Within 24 Months
“I happen to be one of the bulls and I'm not calling the bottom. That's not our job to pick the bottom, but my guess is that we do settle out at multiples higher than today over the next. 24 months. And we get back to that being normal as opposed to normal bein…”
Lemkin: B2B SaaS Startups Will Avoid Widespread Layoffs Due to Cash Reserves
“I don't think there's going to be very many layoffs or issues and B to B companies because they're very well funded.”
Bedecarre: Apple, Meta, Salesforce, and Slack back in offices by April 2022
“Big tech, you know, that Apple, Salesforce, Facebook, Meta you know, Slack all of these companies are kind of targeting over the next couple months, but by April, they will all be back.”
Lemkin: Founders should model a 50% drop in VC deals and funding
“I think for founders and other folks that are on this, I would model today, 50% decline in the number of companies that get funded and 50% decline in the dollars that go out there.”
Lemkin: AI presentation platform Gamma will reach $80 million in revenue in 2024
“We read about gamma and we love gamma for AI presentations, one to eighty million that we'll do this year, but it was founded in 20, 20. So it was five years to one and then one to 80 this year.”
Choi: Public markets will likely value SaaS IPOs at 7x–11x ARR
“And you'll see that companies are trading between this seven times to 10, 11 times range, with the exception of 20 20 and 21. And this is also important to note because irrespective of what private markets are valuing you at today, public markets are still lik…”
Lemkin: Algolia crossed $200M in revenue and will IPO next year
“Second one, Algolia, worth three billion, doing over two hundred million, we'll IPO next year.”
Lemkin: Algolia, Talkdesk, Greenhouse, or SalesLoft will likely IPO in 2024
“We had a panel of Algolia, Talkdisk, Greenhouse, and I think SalesLoft, they're all at two hundred million and at least three of them, I think, will IPO next year.”
Lemkin: Klaviyo will be a monster IPO and trade over $10B
“I really think all the VCs are gonna get excited about Klaviyo. It's gonna be a monster IPO. I think it'll trade over to ten billion.”
Pepper: SaaS Valuations Will Fall in 2-4 Quarters as Founders Need Capital
“I think it's going to take two, three, four quarters. For those companies that raised in early or mid 20, 21 to need to come back and there will come a time where they need capital and the pendulum will swing from, you know, purely power on the part of founder…”
Pepper: LPs will allocate less to VC and prioritize re-ups
“Those marks are going to be tough in the next couple of quarters. So yes, I think like all of us, LPs are reassessing the environment, trying to figure out what to do, And my guess is that they'll do what many others are doing, which is retrench a bit. And my …”
Deeter: Canva and other private cloud companies will cross $1B ARR
“There are private cloud companies that now have line of sight, or in Canva's case and a few others, will be crossing the billion dollar ARR mark while still private.”
Deeter: Cloud will become dominant delivery model for all software in 3 years
“And we do believe that within the next three years, cloud will become the dominant delivery model for all of software in this enabled cloud first world.”
Cummings: SalesLoft will reach a $1B unicorn valuation within two years
“And so now, seven years later, SalesLoft has over 400 employees, has raised over seventy-five million dollars of venture capital, and in the next two years, if not sooner, my prediction is that they will be a unicorn that you'll be able to read about on TechCr…”
Schultz: New Relic will hit $1 billion revenue by fiscal 2022
“We've communicated to the street, for example, that,
Will be a billion dollars in revenue by the end of our fiscal 22.”
Deeter: Public cloud industry will cross $1T market cap in a few years
“And if you extrapolate this, take 10, take a third off the growth rate, 10 full points of CAGR, we still have a line of sight to crossing that trillion dollar milestone in the next few years as an industry.”
Deeter: Stripe and Adyen will be multi-billion dollar successors
“Companies like Stripe and Adyen will certainly be multi-billion dollar successors.”
Customers Will Pay Higher Prices for Canva as It Becomes Agentic
“Now people are going to start paying more for Canva as Canva gets more gentic with two point O.”
Cabane: LinkedIn removed intent data ahead of a major AI product launch
“You've got to wonder what they're doing, especially because they've removed their intent data product three weeks ago, right? So you've got to wonder, is it because they don't care, or is it because they're going to announce something big? I think the latter.”
Nahigian: Gorgias aims to automate 50% of merchant interactions within 12 months
“Initially it started to automate seven percent of tickets. It's gotten up to 18% today. They think within the next six to 12 months they'll be able to automate 50% of the back and forth interactions between e-commerce merchants and their end customers.”
Lemkin: ServiceTitan will probably be the first SaaS IPO of 2024
“I think that'll be the first SAS IPO of 20, 24.”
Lemkin: Greenhouse will probably IPO in two years
“Fourth one is Greenhouse, which is over there, ok? They're doing hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, and will probably IPO in two years.”
David Sacks: Expect a wave of commercial real estate bankruptcies by 2025
“Yeah, you're gonna see a lot of Siri bankruptcies in the next 18 months.”
Cassidy: Justworks has an imminent IPO coming
“I mean, obviously Robert's got an IPO, imminent IPO at some level for JustWorks coming.”
Janz: Seed deep tech startups can still raise $5M to $10M
“I think pre-seed or seed companies will still be able to raise significant amounts of money, like let's say five or ten million dollars if it's the right team and if it's the right opportunity to do that R&D work to get a product into the hands of customers.”
Pepper: VC fund deployment cycles will normalize back to 2-3 years
“In the last two or three fund cycles, we were investing each of those funds in one year. I think we're going to see fund cycles normalize back to a two or three year fund cycle.”
Deeter: Private market lag will slow venture deal pace
“It will take a while for the private markets to adjust to what we've seen very rapidly happen in the public markets. And I think that's going to impact deal pace as well.”
Ferrara: 2019 cloud IPO market cap will meet or beat 2018's $44B
“And so, we're expecting that 2019 will likely either exceed, or sorry, rather meet or exceed Ah, the same metrics from, ah, the same stat from 2014, 2018, rather.”
Lerutte: Artisan plans to automate campaign pitch ingestion by year-end
“I do know Jasper from artisan says that's coming by end of year, but right now you just put it in yourself, you know, pick the best pain points, improve points.”
Bouten: Showpad should cross $100M ARR by end of 2022
“Since then we've grown the company by the end of the year, we should cross that magical one hundred million dollar ARR mark.”
Deeter: 2021 will break all records for venture dollars invested in cloud
“We will break all records this year in terms of dollars in.”