The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will exceed all past tech IPOs combined
“We're going to see three trillion dollar plus IPOs over the coming months. It's never happened before. The value of SpaceX plus Anthropic plus OpenAI will be more than all the other tech IPOs combined ever.”
Lemkin: A $100B Startup Acquisition Will Occur in the Next 12 Months
“I bet there'll be a hundred billion dollar startup acquired in the next 12 months.”
Lemkin: Sales Commission Rates Will Halve by End of 2026
“I actually think what's going to happen because of attribution is commissions are going to have by the end of next year. Because this is how the math is going to work. You're going to get credit for the It's not just PLG. You're going to get credit for Kyle's …”
Belsky: AI productivity gains will increase creative hiring, not decrease it
“And I believe that actually, when you get more ingenuity per person that you employ, the people on your creative team, when you get more possibility from each of them, you're gonna actually want to hire more of them. Look no further than engineers. Engineers h…”
Bialecki: Most businesses will deploy their own AI agent by year-end
“By the end of this year, I think most businesses are gonna have their own agent. They deploy either on their website or behind a phone number or through email or to chat with your Claude that you can just access.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic Revenues Won't Match AI CapEx Until 2031-2032
“The stunning thing is it takes until 2031 or 2032 before
The revenue from those two companies surpasses the total capex.”
Lemkin: Anthropic and OpenAI Will Reach Trillion-Dollar Valuations
“Anthropic isn't topping out at a billion. OpenAI isn't topping at a billion. They're topping at a trillion.”
Lemkin: VC Dollars in 2026 Will Surpass 2021 Peak
“And again, I think 26 will be even bigger. So we'll surpass the dollars of 21.”
Clayton: Annual SaaS IPO capacity is capped at 20 companies
“And only 20 SaaS companies per year can actually make it public. We don't think this number is going to go higher than this anytime soon.”
Tunguz: Enterprise app counts will flatline while total software spend rises
“And so I think maybe what we see is application count stays flat or maybe even decreases, but the total amount of software spending increases because it's capturing some fraction of that labor spend.”
Riparbelli: Full Hollywood films will be laptop-creatable by 2027
“We said that in 10 years, it's gonna be possible to create a Hollywood film from your laptop, not needing anything else. That's 2017, and at current rate of progress, that wouldn't really surprise me. So I think we got the timeline sort of like ballpark right”
Binch: PLG Companies Will See Net Retention Rates of 150% to 300%
“I will submit that PLG product companies are going to start seeing 152 103 hundred percent NRR, because why? Because they're going to start on a lower price point as an entry, and they're going to expand up further beyond that.”
Pepper: 2022-2023 VC vintages will outperform 2020-2021
“Probably the best fun vintages are going to be 20, 22, 23, as opposed to 20, 21.”
Lemkin: Fifty active startup founders will raise nine-figure VC funds
“There's too many founders that are going to raise nine-figure funds while they're running their own startups.
And it used to be a bad sign for the startup, right?
And it used to be like, how could you do anything other than run your own startup?
But it doesn't…”
Masad: Full AI labor automation will not happen in next two years
“There's still a lot of limits to this technology that humans are going to be filling a lot of gaps in the foreseeable future until we aren't, but I don't, I can't give you that timeline. What I'm certain is it is not in next year. It's not the year after”
Lemkin: Algolia generates hundreds of millions and will IPO post-downturn
“The second one was Algolia, which is doing hundreds of millions and is worth three billion today, which will go IPO when we come out of this search as a service API.”
Ibarra: Salesforce will integrate Qualified and Momentum by Dreamforce
“I will say the benefit of Salesforce. Buying qualified momentum is like eventually by probably Dreamforce, right? Those two things will be integrated into one. So we have like two less dashboards and I'll probably have one centralized one by October”