The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,292 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Four Upcoming Tech Mega-IPOs Will Eclipse All IPOs Since 2000
“SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, we'll add in Databricks, we'll have Arsan, one of the co-founders here in about half an hour after this. That's going to create more market value, more value, and more wealth than every other IPO since 2000.”
Queener: 75% of App Software Companies and 50% of Categories Will Disappear
“75% of all applications offer companies that you see today are going to disappear. And 50% of all applications, software categories are going to disappear.”
Benioff: Microsoft's Partnership With OpenAI Will Turn Into Direct Competition
“Microsoft is a company that wants to own it all, control it all. If they see a hot company or a hot startup, they ask themselves, hey, why is that not in our world? And in the case of they, usually they like To either try to feign an acquisition and then based…”
Lee: VC Board Member Withheld Tough Feedback to Protect LP Fundraise
“I called the board member, and I was like, hey, what's your feeling about how this, like, what kind of coaching are you giving the team about how things are going? It feels like things are off, and we are not doing the things we should be doing. And he was lik…”
Lemkin: Claude autonomously rewrote SaaStr's production code without human notification
“Fable went in, found it, decided those were changes that should be made to the app, MCP'd into Replit, told Replit to change the app, change the core algorithm around Jason's Gems, and never told me Never shared it. Never did anything. Did all of this autonomo…”
Higgsfield Reached $300M ARR in 11 Months
“It took us maybe 11 months to get to 300. Now it's bigger than that.”
Tavakoli: Existing valuable software monopolies will be broken within 24 months
“I think any industry that is highly valuable, that has a monopoly today, Will not have a monopoly, 12 to 24 months from now, because.”
Lemkin: A Generation of Operations Roles Will Never Be Hired
“I mean, for us there, so there'll be a whole generation of these people that are just never hired. There may be some folks that are laid off. I, and I think more commonly they'll just be slowly managed out and just replaced with agents.”
Lemkin: Idle Capacity Will Be the Biggest Issue With AI Agents
“The biggest issue we're going to have going forward is our agents are going to get so good. They sit idle all day long. They don't have enough work.”
Lemkin: Companies Will Abandon Employee AI Reskilling by Year-End
“To be direct, I think by the end of this year, we're going to give up on reskilling. I think folks are going to stop pretending they can reskill folks that are not going to be able to make the jump to the agentic age.”
Masad: Only software agents work; sales and marketing agents do not
“The only agents that work are software agents, marketing agents, sales agents, all that haven't really worked very well.”
Lemkin: AI will eliminate middle-tier tech jobs while elites amass unprecedented wealth
“We're gonna enter this weird world where the best VCs are gonna make money like we've never seen before, right, and the best engineers, and then, you know, the middle is gonna have no jobs.”
Lemkin: SaaStr replaced every departing employee with an AI agent
“Basically anyone that left our tiny team, we replaced them with an agent.”
Lemkin: Average GTM sales jobs are in terminal decline
“These mid pack jobs, they're just in terminal decline in GTM and you should be aware of it. They're in terminal decline. We won't need the mid now there will be pockets.”
Queener: 80% of code is currently written by AI
“First, 80% of code is getting written by AI. Now for large companies that have large legacy data code bases, it's a little harder, but like you all are seeing that a lot of the coding is written by AI”
Lemkin: CROs must manage 50/50 AI and human teams by year-end
“I think this year, To be a RevOps professional imminently in a CRO by the end of this year, you will have to know how to manage a fifty-fifty team. 50% AI, 50% human. Not just tools, but you will have to learn how to manage agents, agents, AIs, whether that's …”
Lemkin: AI Will Outperform 80% of Sales Reps by 2026
“Because your AI, at least by next year, is going to be better than 80% of sales reps. Not the best.”
Lemkin: All $100M+ ARR SaaS Portfolios Have Slowed to 10-20% Growth
“If you talk to VCs here that have been around for a while and you have a quiet conversation, ask them how many folks in your portfolio are north of a hundred million, and now are seeing growth in the 10 or 20% range. All of them. All of them. It didn't used to…”
Ripabelli: 99.9% of OpenAI and Anthropic users will not stay on DeepSeek
“But I think in two months, I think, 99.9% of the people who are using Anthropic and OpenAI today is going to go back to using their products, not DeepSeek's model.”
Ripabelli: In five years, AI agent anthropomorphism will look ridiculous
“I think five years time, like, I think everyone's like, why the fuck did we spend five years talking about algorithms as being like a coworker? It's just like software that does things for us. And sometimes maybe you want to chat with it. That's great. That's …”
Lemkin: S-tier AI agents will quickly replace B-tier and C-tier employees
“My limited experience is that an S-tier agent is better than a C-tier employee. This is what across the contact center is. You usually see that the agents are like in the, they can't do everything, but they're in the top 10% of CSAT because what they do, they …”
Stebbings: 78% of the time VC follow-on reserves are misallocated
“When you actually look at the data, and we have probably the most data across, I think almost anyone, we have 2700 GP track records, and when you look across that data set, 78% of the time reserves are misallocated.”
Cabane: The SDR role is disappearing into sales ops and closing positions
“The SDR role is going away. The people will become closers or will evolve into something else. What's that? Something else? Probably sales ops. They will handle the orchestration, the workflows.”
Lemkin: 800 of the 1,000 existing tech unicorns will fail
“We can all laugh about the, that 800 of the thousand unicorns are junk. They're junk of corns. It's going to turn true”
Lemkin: Venture capital will not become fairer for pre-seed founders
“I don't think venture will get fairer for pre-seed. I don't think venture will get fairer for folks that don't check any boxes.”
Conrad: Deel was until recently a Rippling customer for global HR
“Deal was actually, until very recently, a Rippling customer in the United States. They ran, you know, in fact, their global HR on, on Rippling because they didn't have all of these other systems in place.”
Stebbings: Many micro VC funds funded by founders will die
“I think we'll see the death of many of the micro funds, the funds that raised from founders, public market founders who now have had their net worths crushed.”
Delatorre: Former Oracle salespeople performed poorly at MongoDB
“So at MongoDB, the sales team Oracle people did really poorly for the most part.”
Delatorre: Former Concur and Amex reps perform poorly at TripActions
“And at TripActions, Concur people and Amex people do poorly.”
Barrett: Most VC Income Comes from Management Fees, Not Carry
“Like, the vast majority of a VCs, of a typical VCs income, will not come from their carry. It'll come from their management fees or some slice of that over the course of their career. They don't give a shit about the outcome or the success of your business by …”
Vidya Peters: Email marketing and database outreach will be redundant by 2026
“I think that email will be completely redundant. This whole idea of a database and having outreach will be a very archaic method.”
Brands failing to match Amazon's two-hour delivery will eventually go bankrupt
“And if you don't fix it, if you don't solve it, if you're not able to at least get parity to Amazon's value proposition of two-hour delivery, you will go bankrupt.”
Reina: ElevenLabs account executives achieve 300% to 600% quota attainment
“To this point in time right now, like three and a half years in after I started selling the first product, I can tell you we have like account execs doing 600% quota. We have account execs and it's not uncommon. We have account execs doing like a lot of them d…”
Reina: ElevenLabs GTM team averages 167% quarterly quota attainment
“The average quote attainment on a per quarter basis is across the entire go-to-market team is a 167% every single quarter.”
Lemkin: Customer AI agents will eliminate the need for underlying CRMs
“In CX and support if I'm talking to an agent on someone's website as a potential customer and that agent keeps me forever, I might not need, there may be no need for the CRM or CX system or SFA that undermined it. Used to underlie that interaction because the …”
Bialecki: Future software engineering will be agent-driven with asynchronous human escalation
“I think this is the future of how software is going to get built, where very much when you do a normal product review with actual like humans, with people, like you meet and you discuss the key product decisions and you harden what you're after. We can now do …”
Ibarra: Claude autonomously added unauthorized guardrails to SaaStr's contract workflows
“The agent with Fable, since it was on for so long, decided in the last week, I don't know where along the road, It would exclude some things in our Panadoc that it thought might be an NDA or a non-binding like sales contract.”
Salyers: SaaStr AI Agent Migrated 300 Campaigns in One Hour
“It literally took him an hour to move, like, 300 campaigns 10 years of data in those campaigns, right, of, like, who attended Sass Randall back in 2016. He moved them all into Salesforce on his own.”
Salyers: SaaStr Marketing Data Migration Cost Only $14.28 in AI Compute
“And then I looked at the cost and it was like, 14 dollars and 28 cents or whatever it was. And I was like, that's literally less than California minimum wage.”
Lemkin: Competitors' AI agents will steal customers from incumbent SaaS vendors
“Agents will steal your customers. Not your humans, not the great sales rep, not a moment in time, not your competitor going down at the end of the month or for a weekend. Your competitor's agents will steal you, steal your customers.”
O'Driscoll: Foundation model makers will probably continue capturing the delta value
“The truth is they are the apex predator of this distribution. They are the guys who have taken the value, the delta value, and probably will continue to do so under those forecasts.”
O'Driscoll: AI apps will create massive public market outcomes within 15 years.
“But then I still think there are going to be over the next 1015 years, just as Microsoft dominated the client server and PC age and was the operating system, but there were hundreds of client server apps companies that achieved successful and great outcomes in…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Gemini will capture oligopolistic foundation model profits.
“There's no doubt that a two-way or a three-way dominance of the foundation model category will be between OpenAI and Tropic and Gemini with maybe some other players. They will dominate that. They probably will have, you know, oligopolistic profits.”
Lemkin: Software Vendors with Agent-Unfriendly APIs Will Lose Customers
“If your API is not agent friendly, it is a crying shame because you will lose customers when the agent says, I don't want to, I don't, I want to use a different vendor, right?”
Lemkin: Hopin raised at $6B, but digital event demand died in 2020
“There was a brief boom in digital event software. Cause you couldn't go to events like this and a company called hop and raised it like six billion. And we ran digital events and they were all dead by September of 20, 20.”
Lemkin: AI Agents Will Collapse Into Fewer Consolidated Knowledge Repositories
“The agents are collapsing into each other. We may well have fewer agents doing more, going deeper. In essence, mono repos all sharing a body of knowledge.”
Lemkin: AI will cause sales teams to shrink by roughly half
“I personally think net net, it means we'll have sales teams about half the size we used to.”
Blond: AI Will Make Software Development 5x Faster Within Three Years
“We can build software today. Let's call it five X faster than we could three years ago before all of the coding assistance. Well, if that's true faster, yeah, maybe more than probably more, it's reasonable to believe that in three years from now we can build f…”