The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,374 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will exceed all past tech IPOs combined
“We're going to see three trillion dollar plus IPOs over the coming months. It's never happened before. The value of SpaceX plus Anthropic plus OpenAI will be more than all the other tech IPOs combined ever.”
Lemkin: Four Upcoming Tech Mega-IPOs Will Eclipse All IPOs Since 2000
“SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, we'll add in Databricks, we'll have Arsan, one of the co-founders here in about half an hour after this. That's going to create more market value, more value, and more wealth than every other IPO since 2000.”
Lemkin: A $100B Startup Acquisition Will Occur in the Next 12 Months
“I bet there'll be a hundred billion dollar startup acquired in the next 12 months.”
Lemkin: Anthropic Will Reach $50B in Revenue in Four Years
“Anthropics revenue is like nothing we've ever seen. Okay. It'll be at fifty billion in less than four years or four years plus or minus.”
Queener: 75% of App Software Companies and 50% of Categories Will Disappear
“75% of all applications offer companies that you see today are going to disappear. And 50% of all applications, software categories are going to disappear.”
Benioff: Microsoft's Partnership With OpenAI Will Turn Into Direct Competition
“Microsoft is a company that wants to own it all, control it all. If they see a hot company or a hot startup, they ask themselves, hey, why is that not in our world? And in the case of they, usually they like To either try to feign an acquisition and then based…”
Conrad: Deel and Remote rely on third-party payroll systems country by country
“Companies like Deal and like Remote actually have not built underlying global payroll or payroll really of any kind. And so those companies are sort of secretly running on Other payroll systems country by country.”
Lee: VC Board Member Withheld Tough Feedback to Protect LP Fundraise
“I called the board member, and I was like, hey, what's your feeling about how this, like, what kind of coaching are you giving the team about how things are going? It feels like things are off, and we are not doing the things we should be doing. And he was lik…”
Lemkin: ServiceTitan terminated Podium integration impacting 1,000 shared customers
“That worked great for years until Service Titan shut them off the other day, shut them off after all these years with a thousand joint customers.”
Lemkin: Claude autonomously rewrote SaaStr's production code without human notification
“Fable went in, found it, decided those were changes that should be made to the app, MCP'd into Replit, told Replit to change the app, change the core algorithm around Jason's Gems, and never told me Never shared it. Never did anything. Did all of this autonomo…”
Higgsfield Reached $300M ARR in 11 Months
“It took us maybe 11 months to get to 300. Now it's bigger than that.”
Lemkin: Cerebras is going public at $40B with two Middle Eastern customers
“Like Cerebus is going public, I think today at like a forty billion dollar market cap. It has some interesting customers, but basically it only has two customers today in the Middle East that you've never heard of.”
Tavakoli: Existing valuable software monopolies will be broken within 24 months
“I think any industry that is highly valuable, that has a monopoly today, Will not have a monopoly, 12 to 24 months from now, because.”
Lemkin: A Generation of Operations Roles Will Never Be Hired
“I mean, for us there, so there'll be a whole generation of these people that are just never hired. There may be some folks that are laid off. I, and I think more commonly they'll just be slowly managed out and just replaced with agents.”
Lemkin: Idle Capacity Will Be the Biggest Issue With AI Agents
“The biggest issue we're going to have going forward is our agents are going to get so good. They sit idle all day long. They don't have enough work.”
Lemkin: Companies Will Abandon Employee AI Reskilling by Year-End
“To be direct, I think by the end of this year, we're going to give up on reskilling. I think folks are going to stop pretending they can reskill folks that are not going to be able to make the jump to the agentic age.”
Masad: Only software agents work; sales and marketing agents do not
“The only agents that work are software agents, marketing agents, sales agents, all that haven't really worked very well.”
Lemkin: AI will eliminate middle-tier tech jobs while elites amass unprecedented wealth
“We're gonna enter this weird world where the best VCs are gonna make money like we've never seen before, right, and the best engineers, and then, you know, the middle is gonna have no jobs.”
Lemkin: SaaStr replaced every departing employee with an AI agent
“Basically anyone that left our tiny team, we replaced them with an agent.”
Lemkin: Average GTM sales jobs are in terminal decline
“These mid pack jobs, they're just in terminal decline in GTM and you should be aware of it. They're in terminal decline. We won't need the mid now there will be pockets.”
Lemkin: Most SDRs and qualifying BDRs will be eliminated by 2026
“And I really think most SDRs will die next year, but the meat, and I know we throw around these terms differently. The BDR that sort of smarmily qualifies you that that's going to die. Like we just, there's no need for that with these tools.”
Queener: 80% of code is currently written by AI
“First, 80% of code is getting written by AI. Now for large companies that have large legacy data code bases, it's a little harder, but like you all are seeing that a lot of the coding is written by AI”
Net Tech Hiring Is Now Negative in Austin and Miami
“SF, almost all the hiring and net hiring in tech is in SF. It's twice New York. And basically after SF in New York, there is no net hiring. It's net negative in Austin. It's net negative in Miami.”
Cabane: ChatGPT will drive 25% to 33% of traffic in nine months
“I believe we're going to a webless world. I believe GPT is going to be like a quarter to a third of the traffic and nine months from now, right?”
Lemkin: Sales Commission Rates Will Halve by End of 2026
“I actually think what's going to happen because of attribution is commissions are going to have by the end of next year. Because this is how the math is going to work. You're going to get credit for the It's not just PLG. You're going to get credit for Kyle's …”
Lemkin: CROs must manage 50/50 AI and human teams by year-end
“I think this year, To be a RevOps professional imminently in a CRO by the end of this year, you will have to know how to manage a fifty-fifty team. 50% AI, 50% human. Not just tools, but you will have to learn how to manage agents, agents, AIs, whether that's …”
Lemkin: AI Will Outperform 80% of Sales Reps by 2026
“Because your AI, at least by next year, is going to be better than 80% of sales reps. Not the best.”
Lemkin: All $100M+ ARR SaaS Portfolios Have Slowed to 10-20% Growth
“If you talk to VCs here that have been around for a while and you have a quiet conversation, ask them how many folks in your portfolio are north of a hundred million, and now are seeing growth in the 10 or 20% range. All of them. All of them. It didn't used to…”
Lemkin: A $100B+ Public SaaS Company Threatens Customers With Lawsuits
“Even worse, a number of public SaaS companies you probably know threatened to sue users or threatened legal action. One of them is well over a hundred billion dollars in market cap has repeatedly. You can see it on X. If you search sent messages threatening to…”
Ripabelli: 99.9% of OpenAI and Anthropic users will not stay on DeepSeek
“But I think in two months, I think, 99.9% of the people who are using Anthropic and OpenAI today is going to go back to using their products, not DeepSeek's model.”
Ripabelli: In five years, AI agent anthropomorphism will look ridiculous
“I think five years time, like, I think everyone's like, why the fuck did we spend five years talking about algorithms as being like a coworker? It's just like software that does things for us. And sometimes maybe you want to chat with it. That's great. That's …”
Lemkin: S-tier AI agents will quickly replace B-tier and C-tier employees
“My limited experience is that an S-tier agent is better than a C-tier employee. This is what across the contact center is. You usually see that the agents are like in the, they can't do everything, but they're in the top 10% of CSAT because what they do, they …”
Stebbings: 78% of the time VC follow-on reserves are misallocated
“When you actually look at the data, and we have probably the most data across, I think almost anyone, we have 2700 GP track records, and when you look across that data set, 78% of the time reserves are misallocated.”
Cabane: The SDR role is disappearing into sales ops and closing positions
“The SDR role is going away. The people will become closers or will evolve into something else. What's that? Something else? Probably sales ops. They will handle the orchestration, the workflows.”
Lemkin: Blended VC rolling internal rates of return are negative
“Everyone is full of shit in venture on Twitter. Oh, I'm all my investments are so great. I'm such a genius. I own point. Oh, one percent of this unicorn. I made so much money, but the real IRRs, when you blend it all together, they're negative.”
Lemkin: 800 of the 1,000 existing tech unicorns will fail
“We can all laugh about the, that 800 of the thousand unicorns are junk. They're junk of corns. It's going to turn true”
Belsky: AI productivity gains will increase creative hiring, not decrease it
“And I believe that actually, when you get more ingenuity per person that you employ, the people on your creative team, when you get more possibility from each of them, you're gonna actually want to hire more of them. Look no further than engineers. Engineers h…”
Lemkin: Venture capital will not become fairer for pre-seed founders
“I don't think venture will get fairer for pre-seed. I don't think venture will get fairer for folks that don't check any boxes.”
Conrad: Deel was until recently a Rippling customer for global HR
“Deal was actually, until very recently, a Rippling customer in the United States. They ran, you know, in fact, their global HR on, on Rippling because they didn't have all of these other systems in place.”
Lemkin: All Top US Tech Companies Are Run by Asian/Indian Americans
“All the top US tech companies are run by Asian Americans or Indian Americans. All of them, right? Am I, are there any that aren't? AMD, Microsoft, Google, who am I missing?”
Lemkin: Marc Benioff Is Repeating His Past Mistake by Cutting Sales
“I mean, Mark Benioff in his book wrote his biggest mistake in the last downturns was cutting sales. And what did he just do? Cut sales. So we're all, he's making them, he's making the same mistake three times.”
Stebbings: Many micro VC funds funded by founders will die
“I think we'll see the death of many of the micro funds, the funds that raised from founders, public market founders who now have had their net worths crushed.”
Lemkin: SaaS giants like Zendesk and Intercom offer shitty phone support
“Even support companies do shitty support, and I go on, and I play, I go on to all the leaders, the, I, okay, does, do all the leaders in SaaS, do the Zendesk and the intercoms, and do they answer their phone and say, none of them do either, right?”
Delatorre: Former Oracle salespeople performed poorly at MongoDB
“So at MongoDB, the sales team Oracle people did really poorly for the most part.”
Delatorre: Former Concur and Amex reps perform poorly at TripActions
“And at TripActions, Concur people and Amex people do poorly.”
Barrett: Most VC Income Comes from Management Fees, Not Carry
“Like, the vast majority of a VCs, of a typical VCs income, will not come from their carry. It'll come from their management fees or some slice of that over the course of their career. They don't give a shit about the outcome or the success of your business by …”