The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 340 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Deeter: AI Productivity Will Come From Human-Machine Pairing, Not Displacement
“You hear a lot about this idea of worker displacement around automation. Ah, we see the other side of this, though. The AI and machine learning and, ah, productivity gains that are coming in particular from this human and machine pairing. In areas where you've…”
Smith: SAP will pause M&A after $8B Qualtrics deal
“SAP's not buying anything for a while. We took all their powder.”
Deeter: The near future belongs to human-assisted AI, not full automation
“Prediction one is that this year and in the coming few years will be the era of the human-assisted AI. Take the most valuable knowledge workers, the high wage employees across your customer base, and figure out how to help them. Figure out how to take you know…”
Deeter: Screenless, non-graphical interfaces will be the winning paradigm
“So we are entering an era where different interfaces, and in some case, no graphical interface, is the winning paradigm.”
Levie: Public markets have appetite for 100 cloud and mobile IPOs
“What I would say is, is that there's plenty of room For companies that are benefiting from this very clearly secular change toward cloud and mobile. And if you've built a significant business on the back or benefiting from that, then there's maybe room, there'…”
Rubrik CPO: Guardrailed AI agents will make fewer mistakes than human operators
“People are going to make mistakes more than agents if we build our agents with the right guardrails around it. And so our belief is that actually we'll make fewer mistakes in an agentic world We'll tell people what the right solution is. We'll keep, take more …”
O'Driscoll: Cerebras will be an amazing venture win in weeks
“We're going to have an amazing venture win in Cerebus in the next few weeks here, which is great, but obviously the vast bulk of the dollars have gone to Nvidia.”
Lemkin predicts AI-generated LinkedIn comments will surpass human quality within 90 days
“I think in 90 days, the comments are gonna be so good on LinkedIn, like, you're almost like, should I just have my AI do the LinkedIn post and have the slop talk to the AI? Because it'll be better than a human could do.”
Tavakoli: Voice interfaces will soon replace click-and-drag BI tools
“I think most people naturally believe that interface is going to go to voice, right?
I think it's voice.
And so clicking and dragging and dropping like BI tools, like I clicked here, I did that.
I think that part is going away.”
Persson: No one will be asking for more headcount next year
“I think for next year, I don't think anyone is going to come back and say, I'm going to need more headcount for this.”
Lemkin: Pre-AI Workflow Tools Will Not Get Additional Budget
“There is no additional budget for pre AI workflow tools, pre AI Kanban tools. It's just not coming.”
Masad: Monorepos will become increasingly critical for AI agents
“I think this idea of a monorepo will become more and more important. You want the agent to have access to global context as much as possible.”
Masad: Full AI labor automation will not happen in next two years
“There's still a lot of limits to this technology that humans are going to be filling a lot of gaps in the foreseeable future until we aren't, but I don't, I can't give you that timeline. What I'm certain is it is not in next year. It's not the year after”
Lemkin: Consolidated "super-sales" AI agents will emerge within two years
“It's possible in 18 to 24 months, a super A sales agent is all you need. It's not perfect. It's not as good as standalone, right? But we got a lot to do in this world, right? So I'm going to buy a standalone agent that does everything we've described reasonabl…”
LaRoute: Self-serve AI SDR deployments will fail without human optimization
“And the problem with self-serve is there's no way to catch for that. Self-serve is click some buttons, load in a list, use some AI-generated copy, probably from Claude or Chat, GBT, and let the agent run, right? So like, How will you ever catch in a self-serve…”
Lemkin: Hiring External AI GTM Executives Will Work in Two Years
“I actually think in two years that might work because we'll, we'll have veterans. We don't have veterans today. So when ch spaces change rapidly, you've got to find the person on your team. That's the AI nerd.”
Lacour: AI Will Shrink Core GTM Teams While Partner Headcount Expands
“And some teams will get smaller, others will get bigger. And that, that is the case. So for example, I think there are teams that where, where this is further away, for example, our channel and partner teams, we can use way more people there and other teams wi…”
Lemkin: AI presentation platform Gamma will reach $80 million in revenue in 2024
“We read about gamma and we love gamma for AI presentations, one to eighty million that we'll do this year, but it was founded in 20, 20. So it was five years to one and then one to 80 this year.”
Lemkin: Marketers skilled in AI agent deployment will be infinitely hireable
“And here's how, if you have those skills, you will be infinitely hireable for the next 18 months because only like two percent of marketers have those skills.”
Sloan: Companies will rebuild web experiences for conversational agents within eight months
“And we talk a lot about that in my kind of CMO circles, but I see us being at that point in the next eight months. Like people are going to re re-imagine the experience and build for that.”
AI Models Will Eventually Automate and Replace Core Venture Capital Tasks
“I'm sure, over time, they'll replace plenty of what we do.”
Levie: Inter-agent communication will completely transform enterprise interoperability
“So the whole idea is what if you can have agents across your enterprise software talk to other agents in other enterprise software And I think for all of us as an ecosystem, this is going to completely change what interoperability looks like, what the future o…”
Lemkin: Smarter AI Will Temporarily Worsen Human Sales Handoffs
“I worry that as our AIs get better, For a while, the handoff for human might get worse. It might get worse because it's a crutch.”
Lemkin: AI in Sales Will Drive a Renaissance in Self-Serve and PLG
“I think AI in sales, I have a slide later we probably won't get to, is going to lead to a big renaissance in self-serve and PLG. Because if you want an AI to close a deal, it can't be a three-year contract arguing over discounts and terms. The AI has to be abl…”
Lemkin: Humans Will Bring AI Agents to Every Meeting Within 12 Months
“I actually think within 12 months, this agent human combination, I think every single zoom, every single meeting. Every sales rep, every cast member, every person human should come with their AI.”
Lemkin: Application-level AI compute limits will disappear by next year
“I feel like we're going to enter an era maybe next year where there's no limits. It's at the application level. I'm not saying that ML engineers can't consume every GPU and GPU, but what I mean is at the application level, I think an era is going to come where…”
Choi: Public markets will likely value SaaS IPOs at 7x–11x ARR
“And you'll see that companies are trading between this seven times to 10, 11 times range, with the exception of 20 20 and 21. And this is also important to note because irrespective of what private markets are valuing you at today, public markets are still lik…”
Lemkin: AI SDR tools will be great within a year
“And most of these AI SDR tools are not great today, but I believe in a year they will be.”
GitHub CPO: Platform Will Become Completely AI-Native in Five Years
“What I would say is it looks more AI native. One of the beauties of what we're living through right now is that these LLMs can actually understand natural language in a way that none of the other tools before could. So I think if we really lean into that and g…”
Boehmig: Human-AI Collaboration Will Beat Pure Machine Automation
“This combination of human and machine will beat the machine only.”
Lemkin: 2025 Will Be the Year of PE-Backed SaaS IPOs
“2025 may be the year of PEIPOs because folks are giving up.”
Lemkin: Competitors offering instant AI onboarding will capture the SMB market
“So this whole cheat, this whole thing of SMBs tolerating weeks to go live, I think is dying right now. So I would challenge you if that's you think about how you can eliminate onboarding in your app, even if you think it's impossible. Even if you think it can'…”
Riparbelli: Code-generated video will become non-linear, personalized, and interactive
“Once that's possible, and video is generated via code, it's going to change video as a format. New technology always breeds new type of media formats, and for video, what that probably is going to mean is that it's going to be less linear, and it's going to be…”
Lemkin: ServiceTitan is nearing $1B ARR and will IPO within 12 months
“Service Titan should be one of the best SMB vertical SaaS. IPOs in the next 12 months. They are approaching a billion in ARR.”
Lemkin: Aggressive renewal price hikes will kill cross-sell attempts by 2025
“I, where we have a whole generation where we've twisted the knife so deeply in our base to hit the plan that when we go to sell them that next product in 20, 20, 25, 20, 20, they're just gonna say no.”
Lemkin: SaaS market will not ease until multiples reflate to 8x ARR
“I think it won't get easier for us until this is about eight X until we see 20 to 30% reflation in multiples.”
Fonseca: Notion AI will likely reach $100M+ ARR in the near term
“And they've been able to price that in such a way that our guess is it'll probably be a hundred million Plus AR business in the near term for them, and they're charging essentially an upsell of seven to 10 dollars to be able to turn on Notion AI.”
Lemkin: Many founders will quit in 2024 after losing product-market fit
“And I know it's tough, and a lot of founders are going to quit this year. A lot of founders are going to quit this year, not because they're out of money, but because they fell out of product market fit, right?”
Zhou: Best LLMs of the next wave will be enterprise models
“So actually the next frontier for LLMs is in enterprises, and I believe the best LLMs for this next, next wave essentially will be enterprise LLMs.”
Tigani: Prompting tools will reshuffle data engineering and analytics roles
“I think the only thing that you know, I think is clear is that people will be doing things differently. Their jobs will be different. I think, for example, like The data space has sort of started to aggregate into these different job titles, analytics engineer…”
Lemkin: Algolia crossed $200M in revenue and will IPO next year
“Second one, Algolia, worth three billion, doing over two hundred million, we'll IPO next year.”
Lemkin: Klaviyo will be a monster IPO and trade over $10B
“I really think all the VCs are gonna get excited about Klaviyo. It's gonna be a monster IPO. I think it'll trade over to ten billion.”
Lemkin: Algolia, Talkdesk, Greenhouse, or SalesLoft will likely IPO in 2024
“We had a panel of Algolia, Talkdisk, Greenhouse, and I think SalesLoft, they're all at two hundred million and at least three of them, I think, will IPO next year.”
Teng: Top private cloud companies will follow Klaviyo to IPO shortly
“And at Bessemer, we very much believe that the top private cloud companies will shortly follow suit as well.”
D'Onofrio: 23% of Cloud 100 will achieve profitability by late 2023
“23% of cloud 100 companies will be profitable by the end of this year, 2023, and two thirds are planning to be profitable by the end of 2024.”