why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: 70% of Klaviyo's Revenue Comes from Shopify Customers
“Klaviyo, which was the only IPO of this year is marketing just for e-commerce. In fact, Klaviyo really is just marketing only for Shopify customers. 70% of Klaviyo's almost one billion in revenue only not only comes from e-commerce, it only comes from Shopify”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Shopify data showed the pandemic software surge ended by summer 2020
“The twenty-twenty-one buying boom didn't end until Q one or Q two of twenty-twenty-two, but that's because they're a lag. If you go back and look, for example, at Shopify data and Shopify was very public. Shopify said in the summer of twenty-twenty, this is ov…”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Shopify's 31% growth at $11B run rate is fastest in 3 years
“Shopify yesterday announced they crossed eleven billion dollar run rate, eleven billion dollars from Shopify. And It's accelerating. It's growing to 31% at 11.2 billion. That's even better than it sounds because that means it's added over three billion of new …”
Assertion Partly supported
BILL has roughly 80% gross margins compared to Shopify's 50%
“It took forever, but as a result, you've got, you have, like, 80% gross margins. Shopify is like 50, toast is 30.”
Assertion Supported
Klaviyo holds roughly 60% market share in the Shopify ecosystem
“They have probably 60% market share in the Shopify ecosystem.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Nearly 70% of Shopify merchants use Klaviyo
“Klaviyo owns marketing. About almost 70% of everyone on Shopify uses Klaviyo.”
Prediction Partly held up
Nahigian: Gorgias aims to automate 50% of merchant interactions within 12 months
“Initially it started to automate seven percent of tickets. It's gotten up to 18% today. They think within the next six to 12 months they'll be able to automate 50% of the back and forth interactions between e-commerce merchants and their end customers.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Box, HubSpot, and Shopify IPO'd at roughly $800M valuations
“When Rory invested in box with Aaron, when Rory's invested in HubSpot, those are pretty good ones. Shopify. These guys all IPO'd around a hundred million in revenue growing really fast off in 50, 60, 80% at like eight hundred million valuations.”
Assertion Partly supported
Stripe's 2017 enterprise push was driven by Shopify, Lyft, and Squarespace
“So for Stripe in that first camp, this was back in 2017 that we started our foray into enterprise, and it was the Shopify's, the Lyft's, Squarespace's were all growing up, bringing in adult CFO's, contemplating IPOs, and so they had a bunch of demands.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Two-Thirds of Shopify Revenue Comes from Financial Services
“Two thirds of Shopify revenue comes from payments and financial services, not from software, right?”
Assertion Supported
Shopify partners generated $12B in 2020 versus Shopify's $3B in revenue
“Shopify had almost three billion in revenue in 2020. And over twelve billion is what Shopify partners generated for themselves through the Shopify partner program that same year.”
Assertion Supported
42,000 Shopify partners referred at least one new customer in 2020
“42,000 partners in their community referred at least one new customer to Shopify that same year.”
Assertion Supported
D'Onofrio: Shopify grew 80% in 2020 to almost $3 billion
“In 2020, it actually grew an incredible 80% In the new normal to almost three billion of revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Shopify's Dev Degree pays university tuition while students complete their internships
“Shopify has a, has an interesting program called dev degree. And what dev degree is, it's a program in conjunction with a few schools whereby you get your university paid for and you do your internships all at Shopify.”
Assertion Supported
Shen: Shopify grew from $12M to $24M ARR burning only $2M
“Well, if you take a look at Shopify, they were twelve million ARR in year one, and grew to twenty four million ARR in year two. And so they had an increase of twelve million in net new ARR, but only burned two million to do it. And so they had a six X BVP effi…”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Over half of Shopify's revenue comes from payments
“Now, for those of you that look at the public filings of Shopify another proud Bessemer alumni portfolio company, they're trading at ten billion dollars plus. And over half of their revenue today is from this emerging category of payments.”
Assertion Supported
Justin Betakure: Coinbase, Shopify, and Brex use remote-first models with hubs
“Remote first is what Coinbase and Shopify and Brex are doing, where they run the entire company remotely from asynchronization to all hands done remotely, but they have hubs where you can, almost like a cafe, where you can go in and visit colleagues or even do…”