why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI apps will create massive public market outcomes within 15 years.
“But then I still think there are going to be over the next 1015 years, just as Microsoft dominated the client server and PC age and was the operating system, but there were hundreds of client server apps companies that achieved successful and great outcomes in…”
Insight
Tamir: Direct OpenAI or Anthropic APIs outperform cloud intermediary platforms
“Using a first party solution with say OpenAI or with Anthropic is going to have different performance, different latency than if you do it via an intermediary, like a cloud. So you maybe get some simplicity by not having to onboard different vendors and differ…”
Insight
Apache-licensed open-source cores are hard to defend against AWS exploitation
“I mentioned before there's some exploitive behavior from the cloud service providers, in particular AWS, and so you have to be very careful about your license if you're doing open source. I would not just have a very powerful core that, for example, is with th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Microsoft Azure could challenge AWS for top cloud slot
“At this rate, it is quite possible that Azure competes for AWS for the top slot in the coming years. And we're already seeing signs of that on the enterprise side specifically.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nahigian: Amazon Captured More Value with AWS than Entire On-Prem Storage Market
“Amazon actually wasn't built as a cloud business. It wasn't built as a storage company. It was an incumbent e-commerce business. They just happened to launch AWS, and they ended up capturing Way more value just them in and of themselves than the entire on-prem…”
Insight
AI API Costs Introduce Significant COGS to SaaS for the First Time
“I think this is probably the first time for many SaaS companies to have significant cogs. Usually infrastructure has become very cheap with AWS and other cloud providers. So usually it's not something that you have to think about a lot. But now if you're using…”
What-if
Lenta: VMware, AWS, and Databricks were destined to succeed inevitably
“All of the companies I've worked at, VMware, Amazon Web Services, and now I hope Databricks, they would have been successful with or without me. There was an inevitability. Customers were going to virtualize their data centers. People were going to consume tec…”
Insight
Lenta: The bulk of enterprise cloud revenue comes from migrating technical debt
“That was the stuff that no one was actually really interested in, but it was the vast amount of effort, and it was where the vast amount of money was, and for that, you didn't spend time with the business, and you didn't talk about innovation. You spent time w…”
Opinion
Ferrara: AWS is arguably Amazon's biggest value driver toward $1T market cap
“And so, you know, I think we've seen over the last decade that AWS now is arguably the biggest driver of value for Amazon as they are approaching this trillion dollar market cap, ah, market cap milestone.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Mar 2023
Lenta: How AWS pitched Honeywell on a 50-day application migration sprint
“We spent time with the CIO of Honeywell, and we said, hey, rather than spend a huge amount of time planning a migration and starting to work through this migration, and maybe in two years we'll have migrated assets and we'll know what we're doing, Why don't we…”
Insight
Lenta: Scaling field teams requires writing down and distributing core beliefs
“The thing that matters Is that you have these beliefs, that they are written down, and that you've spent time crafting them, and that you've then distributed them broadly across your organization so that everyone can buy into it.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lenta: AWS Australia generated $10M in its first year in 2011
“I think we did ten million dollars in our first year running a few websites in, ah, in 2011 for Amazon Web Services”
Disclosure
Monroy: OpDemand suffered from misaligned UI, marketing, and sales positioning
“Now the problem that we had with OptiMand was we were failing to communicate what we were offering. The UI was candy. The marketing made it feel like a vitamin. AWS made easy is, you know indicative of something that's a nice to nice to have, not a must have, …”
Assertion Supported
Mickos: AWS launched at one-tenth the price of Sun Microsystems' cloud
“Not many will remember, but when AWS launched their cloud service, there were cloud services around. For instance, Sun Microsystems had one, ah, but AWS came out with something that cost a 10th of what they had.”
Disclosure
Big Tech cloud offerings wrecked Treasure Data's SaaS metrics
“We observed all of the important SAS KPIs were suddenly about to go wrong.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: AWS holds over 30% of a $150B cloud market
“And so Amazon Web Services continues to dominate the top over a 30% market share in what is now a hundred and fifty billion dollar market.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ferrara: Amazon 2019 earnings transcript mentioned AWS 78 times and retail twice
“So this analyst, Artie Levy from CNBC, took the Amazon earnings transcript from earlier this year, and he actually counted the words, counted the number of times that words like AWS or retail or Alexa were mentioned. Retail was mentioned twice. That's it. And …”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Amazon earnings release referenced AWS 78 times versus twice for retail
“78 times in the AWS, ah, AWS was referenced in the Amazon press release and earnings announcement. Twice for retail.”
Disclosure
Deeter: Pre-IPO startups frequently save over $1M by refactoring AWS infrastructure
“More and more of our companies that are getting ready to go public will come to us and say, wow, we just refactored our code and saved a million dollars on that AWS bill. We've had multiples of that, actually, in many of these discussions”
Assertion Supported
Ohta: AWS Released Redshift During Treasure Data's Early Years
“At year two to three, AWS released new product called Amazon Redshift, which is the cloud data warehouse product at AWS reInvent.”