The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,946 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Currier: Nvidia and big LLM training companies will eventually go to zero
“So both Nvidia and all of these giant LM companies who are spending all this money on training are going to go to zero eventually.”
Srinivasan: Crypto will replace Yale Law, Columbia Journalism, and Kennedy School
“Crypto is not just, you know, the next wall street. It's also the next Silicon Valley because decentralized social networks and so on are built there, but even less, obviously it's the next Yale law and Columbia school of journalism and Kennedy school of gover…”
Means: The Flexner Report legally mandates siloed pharmaceutical medicine in the US
“The way medicine exists today, the guiding law in Congress is called the Flexner Report, which actually mandates that we can't look at disease holistically. We have to look at things in silos, evidence-based. We need to name a condition and then treat it with …”
Means: Stanford medical dean took $4M from opioid firms for ethics research
“Reached out to the Dean of Stanford Med School, who was a pain specialist, and we funded him directly with consulting payments, and then made a donation to Stanford to his lab for four million dollars from opioid companies to study ethics and pain management.”
Means: 15 of 19 members on 2011 NIH opioid panel took pharma payments
“The Dean of Stanford Med School who just took a bunch of money from opioid companies was appointed in 2011 to the blue ribbon panel on opioid recommendations. He shows 19 other elite academics. 15 of the 19 had direct payments from opioid companies that we Ver…”
Adcock: The biggest company in 10-15 years will make AI humanoids
“So here at figure what's so, so at a high level, the biggest company, the next 1015 years in the world will be human, like AI powered humanoids. That like, that's for sure going to happen.”
Shkreli: Machines will replace human doctors entirely within 30 years
“There's, if we do our jobs right, there's no such thing as a doctor in 30 years. That every operation, every prescription, every piece of medical advice you ever get from now on comes from a machine and it costs 10 cents.”
Luckey: Apple agreed to invest $275 billion in China to stay independent
“Apple's got 95% of their manufacturing in China. They agreed to invest. They've invested hundreds of billions of dollars in manufacturing capacity there. They've agreed to invest a further two hundred and seventy five billion dollars in Chinese manufacturing i…”
Yeung says Prenetics never produced a false positive or negative in HK
“We're the only testing provider that never had a f**k up when it came to false positives and false negatives.”
Liemandt: Trilogy cohorts were told to bet a month's salary on roulette
“At the end of our trilogy university, a hundred days, you know, if enough of the teams that hit their goals, we would take everybody to Vegas and then we would get everybody around a roulette wheel. And we'd say, you have to bet one month's salary. On the numb…”
Puri: Future corporate hierarchies will invert, with humans working for AI bosses
“And I think actually it's going the other way, which is it's not that the AI works for us, but that we work for the AI. And people are going to hate that sentence, but let me just describe what that means. AI is very good at Understanding a broad set of inform…”
Puri: AI may cure death and revive cryopreserved people within 30 years
“It's not crazy that in the next 30 years that AI's gonna figure out how to, like, cure a lot of disease, death, to be able to bring back cryogenically frozen people to be alive, or to, like, upload their consciousness, upload their brain into some sort of, lik…”
Puri: Central AI will manage corporate strategy while humans become junior assistants
“The super intelligence is going to be the boss. You're going to be the junior thing. And so and that's what he's, that's what these guys are talking about, Brian Halligan and Jack Dorsey, which is that actually there'll be like a central AI that's making the k…”
Graham Weaver: AI app startups with $500M valuations will go to zero
“And they'll have two million of revenue and a five hundred million dollar valuation, and they're gonna go to zero. Like, they're gonna be worth absolutely zero.”
Shaan Puri predicts China's elite talent pipeline will outcompete US education
“Whereas if other countries are taking this idea of, like, your job is to produce talent quickly and early, and that, like, it's, the goal is greatness, and let's be competitive about it. Like, what's going to happen over a 20 year arc, right? Like, you're goin…”
Parr: Gen Z is the first generation since 1800 with declining IQ
“Starting in 2010, They noticed a decline, and this isn't just in America. It's in Norway. They noticed there's a bunch of different countries. I think 80 different countries have actually studied the same thing. This isn't just an American thing. But starting …”
Galloway says most profitable companies exploit immature prefrontal cortexes of young men
“The most profitable companies are going to be the ones tapping into an immature prefrontal cortex of an American male.”
Horowitz: Las Vegas Police reopened the Tupac murder investigation at my request
“So at the end of the dinner, I say to the chief of police, Mike Gennaro, I'm like, Mike, you ought to reopen the Tupac case, and he goes, I'll talk to the sheriff. And the next day I called me, I said, what did the sheriff say? He said, if Ben wants us to open…”
Puri: Functional robots will outnumber humans globally
“As soon as they have robots that can actually do functional work, they're gonna sell billions and billions. There's gonna be more robots than humans.”
Mazzeo: Human taste is not a durable moat against AI generation
“I think all these people who are, like, taste Is our salvation are going to get leased at all. It's going to hurt real. It's going to hurt real bad. They're going to run into the brick wall of consumer choice on taste.”
Lemkin: Traditional B2B SaaS interfaces and CRMs are going to die
“And when we're in ChatGPT 24 hours a day, we're not going to like pull up a CRM. We're not going to use the interfaces. Like these interfaces are all Already dying. You can see it, Sam. And then the amount of time you spend in GPT, like then go to like a B to …”
Lemkin: Unemployed tech workers rejected jobs under $200k requiring direct individual work
“Enough that I had like a micro connection that had been out of work for six months and I gave them jobs. All of them in the end basically said, I want to make 200 K or more only to do meetings or manage teams. None of them were willing to do any work themselve…”
Currier: Unlimited AI processing will run on phone CPUs within four years
“AI is going to be like water. You're going to get free unlimited AI processing on your CPU. On your phone within three to four years. There's no doubt it's going to free”
O'Brien: Saronic's trajectory could deter China from invading Taiwan
“They're, you know, gonna make the South China Sea a hellscape and make China now wanna cross that that, that, that ocean and keep Taiwan safe if they keep going on the path they're doing”
Parr: Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia insisted to me that aliens are real
“Joe, look, You're worth, like, ten billion dollars. Like, if there's Illuminati, like, you are either in it, or you're friends with the people in it. Tell me one thing that, like, you guys talk about, and he looked at me, he goes, aliens are real.”
Dorsey Actively Tried to Prevent the Release of 'Hatching Twitter'
“Jack Dorsey did not want that book out and he was trying to do everything he could.”
Noah Glass Conceived Twitter Before Jack Dorsey Took the Credit
“That's what it becomes, and if you, if Jack Dorsey had told the real story about Twitter, that his best friend Noah Glass really was the one that came up with most of it, and he stole it, you know, from him, and like, and that, that place was a shit show, and …”
Dorsey Gave Ev Williams an Ultimatum to Fire Noah Glass
“Jack, Who is best friends with Noah goes into Ev's office one day and he says, either you get rid of Noah or I quit.”
Dorsey Fabricated Twitter's Firetruck Dispatch Origin Story After the Fact
“And as far as Ev knew, Jack had come up with the idea himself, you know, when he was a little kid listening to fire trucks. That was a story that was added later.”
Dorsey Reaped $12B While Twitter Co-Founder Noah Glass Got Nothing
“Jack is worth twelve billion dollars, give or take. Noah Glass is worth about a zero dollars, ok? He never got anything. Ev gave him something, and he had to live off that and whatnot. If you're worth twelve billion dollars, give the guy ten million.”
Wilkinson: Rolling Out Existing AI and Self-Driving Would Eliminate 20% of Jobs
“So if we just paused AI, we shut down all the AI labs and all we focused on was just rollout of what already exists. I think probably Between self-driving cars and AI agents, 20% of all current jobs are gone.”
Wilkinson: Software will commoditize as AI eliminates coding barriers
“And so my belief is basically that as more and more people don't need to learn how to code and can build software, software will become more and more commoditized. There'll be way more competition and it'll be a way harder world for software businesses.”
Puri: Harvard had 1 African-American studies graduate for 57 faculty
“Like, I think there was only what was it? Like, there was one degree recipient in twenty-twenty-three in African-American studies. And 57 faculty.”
Puri: Cyberstarts promises startups $2M revenue through loyal CISO network
“He promises teams of fresh graduates, graduates from tech units, not only investment support in the startup, but initial revenues of two million a year. This is usually their first year of revenue, which is intended to boost them above their competitors and he…”
Parr: Traba explicitly promotes a 996 work culture
“And they basically, I think they explicitly said this on their website. We have a nine, nine, six culture, which means working nine AM to nine PM, six days a week.”
Means: Big Tobacco drove the largest food M&As in US history
“In 1990, two of the three largest M&A deals in American history were cigarette companies buying food companies. So every single processed food companies we can actually point to is either still owned by a cigarette company. We don't even realize this craft is …”
Means: 75% of FDA Funding Comes Directly from Pharma
“50, excuse me, 75% of the FDA is actually not funded by taxpayers. It's funded by pharma itself, and bureaucracies are built to grow.”
Means: Nine of the top ten US killers are diet-driven
“Nine out of 10 killers of Americans are foodborne illnesses. I mean, we can dance around it. It's just that simple. Like, you would wipe out heart disease, diabetes, kidney disease, respiratory illness, COVID deaths even, if you got our country metabolically m…”
Means: 95% of USDA nutrition guidelines panelists receive food or pharma funding
“The USD nutrition guidelines committee, which basically approves and recommends various foods. 95% of it is funded by 95% of the panelists are directly funded by food companies or pharma companies.”
Means: Kellogg's US products contain ADHD-linked dyes omitted in Canada
“Kellogg's is a stark example, but their ingredient list, they changed completely for the American kids versus just across the border in Canada. It has addictive ingredients. It has the colorings that make it really bright that are linked to ADHD and other deve…”
Means: 15% of American high schoolers are prescribed Adderall
“We prescribe 15% of high schoolers basically meth, you know, Adderall, which is literally like one molecule away from meth.”
Adcock: Hundreds of thousands of undetected guns enter US schools yearly
“Several 100,000 guns are being brought into schools in K to 12 every year in the U S and not found.”
Parr: Sports betting apps assign account managers to encourage losing gamblers
“DraftKings or whatever? They have account managers. So if you become, I read about this one woman who was making like, a 150 grand a year, so whatever that puts her at in terms of class, but not like crazy wealthy, and she's, and she lost all of her money, and…”
Chief reached $100M revenue in five years by accepting all applicants
“They grew to a hundred million in revenue in four or five years. They let in 100% of the people who apply in the interview.”
Pompliano: Bitcoin will protect corporate purchasing power better than cash over 10-20 years
“I think it is riskier for a company to sit with five hundred million dollars in US dollar cash on their balance sheet than five hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin. And the reason being that or maybe the one clarifier is if you have a long-term oriented p…”